tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jan 31, 2019 13:22:36 GMT -5
this is just another demonstration on a lack of understanding of what has actually been communicated. The polls gave hillary an 85% and donald a 15% chance. And this is setting aside any margins of error reported at the time compare that to odds of winning the megamillions - I would love to get a ticket to that with a 15% chance of winning. Even if it was 99.9 to 0.01 - I'm still buying that megamillions ticket! But now every metric about approval or odds or anything is countered with a smug "the polls were wrong!". Their interpretation of the polls was wrong, that is for sure! But whatevs. DJ has tried to enlighten on this to no avail it seems. "The polls were wrong!" "The polls were wrong! That's why I don't put any faith in them. I use the final poll only, the vote. And we all know the 'national total' ( ) isn't what wins a presidential election in the U.S. Nobody has ever claimed that the popular vote determines the winner. Your "dead horse" is only conservatives intentionally corrupting the debate with nonsense. They are the only ones claiming that the other side thinks that, and they do so wrongly.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 13:25:14 GMT -5
That's why I don't put any faith in them. I use the final poll only, the vote. And we all know the 'national total' ( ) isn't what wins a presidential election in the U.S. Nobody has ever claimed that the popular vote determines the winner. Your "dead horse" is only conservatives intentionally corrupting the debate with nonsense. They are the only ones claiming that the other side thinks that, and they do so wrongly. Those type of claims come from both sides. It's what keeps us coming here, otherwise zzzzzzzzzz
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 13:27:07 GMT -5
... That's why I don't put any faith in them. ... I put no faith in them either, I put understanding into them. A real pleasure to hear that. How the question is presented in these polls, control the results more than anything.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jan 31, 2019 13:35:45 GMT -5
Name one person who has ever claimed that the popular vote determines the winner. I will grant that there are people who think it should, and that the Electoral College should be abolished, but nobody thinks it does currently. If you are talking about the larger subject of both sides claiming that the other holds positions which it actually does not, then yes that does happen. There is no doubt, however, that it happens far more often with conservatives talking about liberals than the reverse. Conservatives are a more homogeneous group than are liberals, and their positions are generally more absolute and far less nuanced. Makes it a lot easier for us to generalize about you than the other way around.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 13:37:14 GMT -5
I don't know if you're aware of it, but Rukh is a professional statistician. She's done a wonderful job explaining how a poll can be accurate yet the result is not what you would expect. I appreciate her explanations. A statistician has no need for anything but the accuracy of the numbers. The results. 'Explaining' the 'possibility' or 'type of expectations' , isn't in the job description That's her opinion.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 13:38:09 GMT -5
Name one person who has ever claimed that the popular vote determines the winner. I will grant that there are people who think it should, and that the Electoral College should be abolished, but nobody thinks it does currently. If you are talking about the larger subject of both sides claiming that the other holds positions which it actually does not, then yes that does happen. There is no doubt, however, that it happens far more often with conservatives talking about liberals than the reverse. Conservatives are a more homogeneous group than are liberals, and their positions are generally more absolute and far less nuanced. Makes it a lot easier for us to generalize about you than the other way around. It's about me ! This; Conservatives are a more homogeneous group than are liberals
Followed by this; Makes it a lot easier for us to generalize about you.
Followed by; that is what we are trying to change. It is supposed to be about facts!
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jan 31, 2019 13:39:54 GMT -5
Name one person who has ever claimed that the popular vote determines the winner. I will grant that there are people who think it should, and that the Electoral College should be abolished, but nobody thinks it does currently. If you are talking about the larger subject of both sides claiming that the other holds positions which it actually does not, then yes that does happen. There is no doubt, however, that it happens far more often with conservatives talking about liberals than the reverse. Conservatives are a more homogeneous group than are liberals, and their positions are generally more absolute and far less nuanced. Makes it a lot easier for us to generalize about you than the other way around. It's about me ! And again, that is what we are trying to change. It is supposed to be about facts!
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jan 31, 2019 13:41:53 GMT -5
To think you complained about me "fucking" with your posts. Game on, lol. Don't like it when it's done to you, eh? Stop fucking with my posts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 13:44:19 GMT -5
And again, that is what we are trying to change. It is supposed to be about facts! See 192
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 13:45:50 GMT -5
To think you complained about me "fucking" with your posts. Game on, lol. Don't like it when it's done to you, eh? Well I love it when you do it to mine Thank you. Hi there. Edit; Do you do this as humor ?
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jan 31, 2019 13:49:41 GMT -5
And again, that is what we are trying to change. It is supposed to be about facts! See 192 Why? The first part is a fact. The second was a joke, hence the after it.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jan 31, 2019 13:53:23 GMT -5
I put no faith in them either, I put understanding into them. A real pleasure to hear that. How the question is presented in these polls, control the results more than anything. My education suggested that it is actually the order of questions that impact the results of individual questions more than the question itself. But yes, how a question is presented is important. That is why quality pollsters work to minimize such impact. And why it is important to look at more than just interpretations of results as reported by some media outlet about some poll. If I can't find details of the poll, I dismiss it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 13:56:15 GMT -5
A real pleasure to hear that. How the question is presented in these polls, control the results more than anything. My education suggested that it is actually the order of questions that impact the results of individual questions more than the question itself. But yes, how a question is presented is important. That is why quality pollsters work to minimize such impact. And why it is important to look at more than just interpretations of results as reported by some media outlet about some poll. If I can't find details of the poll, I dismiss it. I should of stated the whole presentation of the question (s). I agree with what you're saying on this.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Jan 31, 2019 14:00:21 GMT -5
I don't know if you're aware of it, but Rukh is a professional statistician. She's done a wonderful job explaining how a poll can be accurate yet the result is not what you would expect. I appreciate her explanations. A statistician has no need for anything but the accuracy of the numbers. The results. 'Explaining' the 'possibility' or 'type of expectations' , isn't in the job description That's her opinion. You really don't understand what a statistician does, do you? It's actually the job of actuaries and lawyers too.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 14:04:52 GMT -5
A statistician has no need for anything but the accuracy of the numbers. The results. 'Explaining' the 'possibility' or 'type of expectations' , isn't in the job description That's her opinion. You really don't understand what a statistician does, do you? It's actually the job of actuaries and lawyers too. No I'm not up on the finer points of it. When people start 'explaining' my expectations, It just doesn't sound right to me. Edit; For a statistician
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jan 31, 2019 14:21:43 GMT -5
You didn't believe me in the first place but I retain a modicum of hope that you'll get over it. dondub Yes?
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Jan 31, 2019 14:33:39 GMT -5
You really don't understand what a statistician does, do you? It's actually the job of actuaries and lawyers too. No I'm not up on the finer points of it. When people start 'explaining' my expectations, It just doesn't sound right to me. Edit; For a statistician so if the bookies say Pats by 7 in superbowl, 3 to 1 odds, it sounds odd to you? Bookies are just statisticians.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 14:44:26 GMT -5
No I'm not up on the finer points of it. When people start 'explaining' my expectations, It just doesn't sound right to me. Edit; For a statistician so if the bookies say Pats by 7 in superbowl, 3 to 1 odds, it sounds odd to you? Bookies are just statisticians. Bookies are trying to make a profit on the bettors. Another example maybe ? (Cheating pats better lose, that's all I have to say on that)
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jan 31, 2019 14:46:47 GMT -5
Don't like it when it's done to you, eh? Well I love it when you do it to mine Thank you. Hi there. Edit; Do you do this as humor ? Nothing funny about it. I wouldn't want anyone to think that the soulless drivel you write is coming from MY fingers. Stop editing my posts and we'll be fine.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Jan 31, 2019 14:48:18 GMT -5
so if the bookies say Pats by 7 in superbowl, 3 to 1 odds, it sounds odd to you? Bookies are just statisticians. Bookies are trying to make a profit on the bettors. Another example maybe ? (Cheating pats better lose, that's all I have to say on that) And pollsters are trying to make a profit on their polls. Actuaries are trying to make a profit for insurance companies. Lawyers are trying to make a profit off personal injury cases, or tell you your chance of succeeding at a DWI trial. Doctors give you a medical prognosis. It's not something that should make you uncomfortable. Professionals with experience in an area are trying to give you the likelihood of an outcome for each situation.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 14:54:36 GMT -5
Hi there. Edit; Do you do this as humor ? Nothing funny about it. I wouldn't want anyone to think that the soulless drivel extreme intelligence you write is coming from MY fingers. Stop Keep editing my posts and we'll be fine. I'm fine already.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 15:02:38 GMT -5
Bookies are trying to make a profit on the bettors. Another example maybe ? (Cheating pats better lose, that's all I have to say on that) And pollsters are trying to make a profit on their polls. Actuaries are trying to make a profit for insurance companies. Lawyers are trying to make a profit off personal injury cases, or tell you your chance of succeeding at a DWI trial. Doctors give you a medical prognosis. It's not something that should make you uncomfortable. Professionals with experience in an area are trying to give you the likelihood of an outcome for each situation. Profits are just one example. I have to think of a better way to explain what I'm thinking. Giving numerical odds as a statistician, is not the same as some someone stating their opinion about the delivery of metric approval, or whether it's 'smug'. Does that clarify at all ?
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 31, 2019 18:11:03 GMT -5
A statistician has no need for anything but the accuracy of the numbers. The results. 'Explaining' the 'possibility' or 'type of expectations' , isn't in the job description That's her opinion. You really don't understand what a statistician does, do you? It's actually the job of actuaries and lawyers too. Lol, our education and experience is wasted on this lot! They know more about law than you and more about stats than I! ;D
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jan 31, 2019 18:59:35 GMT -5
You really don't understand what a statistician does, do you? It's actually the job of actuaries and lawyers too. Lol, our education and experience is wasted on this lot! They know more about law than you and more about stats than I! What’s going on here?
I fear we are witnessing the “death of expertise”: a Google-fueled, Wikipedia-based, blog-sodden collapse of any division between professionals and laymen, students and teachers, knowers and wonderers – in other words, between those of any achievement in an area and those with none at all.
link
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Virgil Showlion
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[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jan 31, 2019 19:00:23 GMT -5
@x: While we allow "revisions" to others' posts when clearly marked, it's an irritating practice that's best avoided. Please desist in this thread. The level of hostility is high enough. weltschmerz: The row between you and @x started because your Reply #163 is malformed and makes it appear as though he's the author of your ditty about Pres. Trump. I've seen such malformations/misattributions in your posts before. I also know you possess the technical competency to avoid them. Please be more diligent when proofreading in future. - Virgil (Mod)
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jan 31, 2019 19:05:25 GMT -5
@x : While we allow "revisions" to others' posts when clearly marked, it's an irritating practice that's best avoided. Please desist in this thread. The level of hostility is high enough. weltschmerz : The row between you and @x started because your Reply #163 is malformed and makes it appear as though he's the author of your ditty about Pres. Trump. I've seen such malformations/misattributions in your posts before. I also know you possess the technical competency to avoid them. Please be more diligent when proofreading in future. - Virgil (Mod)
No,it started when he he inserted his comments into one of my posts. #135. I asked him to stop and he said he'll do it if he wants to.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 31, 2019 20:02:27 GMT -5
@x: While we allow "revisions" to others' posts when clearly marked, it's an irritating practice that's best avoided. Please desist in this thread. The level of hostility is high enough. weltschmerz: The row between you and @x started because your Reply #163 is malformed and makes it appear as though he's the author of your ditty about Pres. Trump. I've seen such malformations/misattributions in your posts before. I also know you possess the technical competency to avoid them. Please be more diligent when proofreading in future. - Virgil (Mod)
What the fruit? We're suppose to proof our posts?!?!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 31, 2019 20:26:18 GMT -5
the polls showed that he would lose the popular vote, and he did.
#dontblamethepolls
Suspect you're aware of the actual error in polling covering the election, and Hillary's mistakes in concentrating on the wrong places to put her campaign effort. yes, I am.
Wisconsin was wildly in error. Michigan, and PA were also somewhat in error, although within MOE.
but we were talking about national polls, not state polls. the national polls were actually MORE accurate in 2016 than in 2012 or 2008.
the reason why polls were not accurate in WI, MI and PA has really not been discussed. if you would like to start a thread, be my guest.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2019 7:44:39 GMT -5
Suspect you're aware of the actual error in polling covering the election, and Hillary's mistakes in concentrating on the wrong places to put her campaign effort. yes, I am.
Wisconsin was wildly in error. Michigan, and PA were also somewhat in error, although within MOE.
but we were talking about national polls, not state polls. the national polls were actually MORE accurate in 2016 than in 2012 or 2008.
the reason why polls were not accurate in WI, MI and PA has really not been discussed. if you would like to start a thread, be my guest.
I meant the state polls, my error in not being clear.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2019 7:51:46 GMT -5
@x : While we allow "revisions" to others' posts when clearly marked, it's an irritating practice that's best avoided. Please desist in this thread. The level of hostility is high enough. weltschmerz : The row between you and @x started because your Reply #163 is malformed and makes it appear as though he's the author of your ditty about Pres. Trump. I've seen such malformations/misattributions in your posts before. I also know you possess the technical competency to avoid them. Please be more diligent when proofreading in future. - Virgil (Mod)
I'll desist in all threads. It's not necessary. If it's a long winded post with many items to answer, I'll just pass on it.
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