billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 19, 2018 14:37:33 GMT -5
Bills, did you click on the link I posted? It was also from CBS Yes. I can find links in the article to Deadline Hollywood but can't find anything that is from CBS.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 19, 2018 14:37:42 GMT -5
Bills, did you click on the link I posted? It was also from CBS uh....no it wasn't. it was from Bruce Haring. Bruce has never worked for CBS, and has been retired from journalism for a long time to concentrate on his "live events" career:
He is the founder and director of many live events, including the DIY Convention: Do It Yourself in Film, Music & Books; the Aliens to Zombies Convention; the Young Professionals in Energy International Summit, and the New York, Paris, Hollywood, San Francisco and London book festivals. so, to boil it down: this is an opinion piece from the floor of the Zombie Convention.
i think you need to work a bit harder if you think this is IN ANY WAY "from CBS", oc. it is about as "from CBS" as timeswatch is from the NYT.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 19, 2018 14:40:30 GMT -5
that having been said, the man is entitled to his opinion, just as we all are. however, i have no reason to believe he is any more of an "expert" in this area than i am, and his TAKE on the CBS data is utterly fraudulent.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 22, 2018 0:39:44 GMT -5
i am changing my odds of Trump going full term to the same as the Democrats winning the House (5:3), down from 5:2. today really hurt him, imo. if you don't see it that way, you need to keep reading.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 22, 2018 1:23:03 GMT -5
i would never have thought that Duncan Hunter might lose his seat.....before today. he won in 2016 by 17% i figured it might be close this year, but i figured he would win. now, i am reasonably certain he is going to lose. does this change the math for Democrats? yes. it does. but not by much. i still have them at 5:3, but it is a more solid 5:3 than yesterday.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 22, 2018 7:05:43 GMT -5
Duncan Hunter - WTF?
Spending campaign money on private school tuition, oral surgery, video games, a garage door, ski trips, European vacations, restaurants, airline tickets for friends and relatives and lots of tequila and steaks? And at the same time, over drafting their personal bank account by 37K.
Now he wants to whine that it's politically motivated. Gee, who knew your campaign war chest wasn't also a piggy bank.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 22, 2018 10:40:25 GMT -5
i always figured he was an ass. never took him for utterly corrupt. go figure.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 22, 2018 11:26:36 GMT -5
Apparently, it's currently fashionable to try to get into public office in order to grift the shit out of it.
Guess that 'ask not what your country can do for you ' thing is hopeless outdated now.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2018 11:51:36 GMT -5
Duncan Hunter - WTF?
Spending campaign money on private school tuition, oral surgery, video games, a garage door, ski trips, European vacations, restaurants, airline tickets for friends and relatives and lots of tequila and steaks? And at the same time, over drafting their personal bank account by 37K.
Now he wants to whine that it's politically motivated. Gee, who knew your campaign war chest wasn't also a piggy bank.
The detail is friggin amazing: www.cnn.com/2018/08/22/politics/duncan-hunter-indicted/index.html
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 22, 2018 12:40:21 GMT -5
because of Duncan Hunter, RCP's map of the House has D+6 now, rather than D+5. in other news, i am now predicting that Democrats will take a majority of governorships this year, and i will give it the same odds as them taking the House: 5:3 also: the generic ballot has been really erratic recently, but it also had Democrats at their highest level since January. the president's approval rating is also quite high, in case you are wondering (-9). i have noticed that this is quite common (that presidential approval and the generic ballot tend to trend opposite just prior to elections). i am not sure why this is, but it is. not to say this is a normal year. it really isn't. the stakes are very high this year.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 22, 2018 12:48:29 GMT -5
Duncan Hunter - WTF?
Spending campaign money on private school tuition, oral surgery, video games, a garage door, ski trips, European vacations, restaurants, airline tickets for friends and relatives and lots of tequila and steaks? And at the same time, over drafting their personal bank account by 37K.
Now he wants to whine that it's politically motivated. Gee, who knew your campaign war chest wasn't also a piggy bank.
The detail is friggin amazing: www.cnn.com/2018/08/22/politics/duncan-hunter-indicted/index.htmli think the most amazing part of the indictment is that he was continually overdrawn, despite spending lavish amounts. the man has no sense of propriety or proportion.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2018 13:41:25 GMT -5
i think the most amazing part of the indictment is that he was continually overdrawn, despite spending lavish amounts. the man has no sense of propriety or proportion. What gets me is that this is probably as far out there as someone could take this in brazenly cheating the system, and they got away with it for years. What do others get away with that even have half a brain about it.
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Post by Opti on Aug 22, 2018 13:58:56 GMT -5
because of Duncan Hunter, RCP's map of the House has D+6 now, rather than D+5. in other news, i am now predicting that Democrats will take a majority of governorships this year, and i will give it the same odds as them taking the House: 5:3 also: the generic ballot has been really erratic recently, but it also had Democrats at their highest level since January. the president's approval rating is also quite high, in case you are wondering (-9). i have noticed that this is quite common (that presidential approval and the generic ballot tend to trend opposite just prior to elections). i am not sure why this is, but it is. not to say this is a normal year. it really isn't. the stakes are very high this year.
DJ, Where do you think we need to buy our stickers, etc. from .... now? I think for those who want to influence, we need to declare early, in a way people would notice. My Red BMW does not scream Democrat, but if I started putting up "treehugger" type stickers or Democrats I support, it might. In other words, I think I need to put things like Corey Booker and Warren stickers on my car ... but also any schools & causes like breast cancer or save the whales.
FWIW, I'm thinking of changing my license plate to the Shore one,... not sure though. Today, I want my car to turn blue & purple. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 22, 2018 14:43:22 GMT -5
i think the most amazing part of the indictment is that he was continually overdrawn, despite spending lavish amounts. the man has no sense of propriety or proportion. What gets me is that this is probably as far out there as someone could take this in brazenly cheating the system, and they got away with it for years. What do others get away with that even have half a brain about it. His dad was a politician, too, you have to wonder if the son followed in the dad's footsteps or if the dad is shaking his head in disbelief about how bad his kid misbehaved.
Of course, the far right is blaming this on Rod Rosenstein, Trump's favorite whipping boy, for bringing this indictment before the midterm. Cause it isn't the politicians who are committing crimes, it's how the unfair the DOJ is when they catch them doing it.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 22, 2018 16:46:23 GMT -5
Steve Bannon is probably right (feels strange to say that) but the GOP will make the midterms about impeachment. Plus, add in the hordes of brown people pouring into the country to rape your wives and daughters. www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/steve-bannon-midterms_us_5b7a75fde4b05906b4152665
So - go get out and vote for republicans to save your women folk and for Donald Trump!
I'm curious to see what the dems will try to rally behind. I hope not impeachment - I hope they lean hard on the fact that the only legislation passed so far in Trump's reign is a tax gift to the rich and big corporations, and a push for healthcare and immigration reform both of which are criminally broken systems. They should attempt to sound like the least crazy party - should not be hard to pull that off at all.
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Aug 22, 2018 17:03:18 GMT -5
Duncan Hunter - WTF?
Spending campaign money on private school tuition, oral surgery, video games, a garage door, ski trips, European vacations, restaurants, airline tickets for friends and relatives and lots of tequila and steaks? And at the same time, over drafting their personal bank account by 37K.
Now he wants to whine that it's politically motivated. Gee, who knew your campaign war chest wasn't also a piggy bank.
I see your WTF. And raise you 🤓
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 22, 2018 17:25:43 GMT -5
because of Duncan Hunter, RCP's map of the House has D+6 now, rather than D+5. in other news, i am now predicting that Democrats will take a majority of governorships this year, and i will give it the same odds as them taking the House: 5:3 also: the generic ballot has been really erratic recently, but it also had Democrats at their highest level since January. the president's approval rating is also quite high, in case you are wondering (-9). i have noticed that this is quite common (that presidential approval and the generic ballot tend to trend opposite just prior to elections). i am not sure why this is, but it is. not to say this is a normal year. it really isn't. the stakes are very high this year.
DJ, Where do you think we need to buy our stickers, etc. from .... now? I think for those who want to influence, we need to declare early, in a way people would notice. My Red BMW does not scream Democrat, but if I started putting up "treehugger" type stickers or Democrats I support, it might. In other words, I think I need to put things like Corey Booker and Warren stickers on my car ... but also any schools & causes like breast cancer or save the whales.
FWIW, I'm thinking of changing my license plate to the Shore one,... not sure though. Today, I want my car to turn blue & purple. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?
if you live in a district that is Republican, and went less than 10% in favor of Trump, i would call up the local Democratic office and ask what you can do to help. they will probably suggest canvassing, and if you have time for it, i think that is a great thing. i am in a deep blue locale, so there is no point here.
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 22, 2018 20:01:09 GMT -5
What gets me is that this is probably as far out there as someone could take this in brazenly cheating the system, and they got away with it for years. What do others get away with that even have half a brain about it. His dad was a politician, too, you have to wonder if the son followed in the dad's footsteps or if the dad is shaking his head in disbelief about how bad his kid misbehaved.
Of course, the far right is blaming this on Rod Rosenstein, Trump's favorite whipping boy, for bringing this indictment before the midterm. Cause it isn't the politicians who are committing crimes, it's how the unfair the DOJ is when they catch them doing it.
"Former Rep. Duncan L. Hunter Sr., whom the younger Hunter succeeded, told Fox 5 San Diego the indictment coming this close to the midterm elections was a “political late hit.” “The Democrat attorneys who went to Hillary Clinton’s fundraisers before they did this know they had all the records on my son a year and a half ago,” he said. “Now they are waiting until a few weeks before the election when it’s going to be very hard to get a trial finished and clear his name.”" Duncan Hunter Sr. Defends Son: ‘Political Late Hit’
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 22, 2018 20:40:47 GMT -5
"Former Rep. Duncan L. Hunter Sr., whom the younger Hunter succeeded, told Fox 5 San Diego the indictment coming this close to the midterm elections was a “political late hit.” “The Democrat attorneys who went to Hillary Clinton’s fundraisers before they did this know they had all the records on my son a year and a half ago,” he said. “ Now they are waiting until a few weeks before the election when it’s going to be very hard to get a trial finished and clear his name.”" Duncan Hunter Sr. Defends Son: ‘Political Late Hit’1) Democrat is a pejorative. it might sell in any other situation, but not this one, Old Man Hunter 2) the timing is tough shit for your grifter son, who has been on the take for a DECADE. what would you have us do? wait until AFTER the election, so Jerry Brown could appoint a replacement? you are a fucking idiot, and your son is a crook. good day to you, sir.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 24, 2018 22:56:03 GMT -5
i am raising the odds on the GOP taking the Senate to 3:1 today. there are (4) states that the GOP has about a 55% chance of winning: Florida, Indiana, Tennesse, and MO. they have to win (3) [and all of the other states they are doing better in] to maintain their majority.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2018 14:04:44 GMT -5
i am increasing the odds of Democrats taking the House and the president getting impeached to 2:1 today. the reason for this is TWOFOLD: 1) the generic balloting for Democrats hit a (6) month high this week (+8.4%). this is a very good number for Democrats in a year that already favored them. 2) additional polling shows that Trump is deeply unpopular with about HALF of the electorate, now. that is a tipping point. if congressional REPUBLICANS start to view him as a liability, then attitudes on the hill will change rapidly, and we will see a diminished role of the president, up to and including walling him off from the legislature. disclaimer: in the last election, i believed Clinton had a small chance of winning (perhaps 5:4 odds?) on the eve of the election. although the odds i am suggesting for Democrats winning the House are maybe 10% higher, there is still a significant chance that they will FAIL to do this. remember: certainty is maybe 4:1 or higher. i am still quite uncertain, and Democrats should be, too. the table is tilted against them, due to Project Red Map, voter suppression laws (which are ongoing, and effective), and some of the same monkey business we saw in 2016 in terms of cynical manipulation of susceptible voting populations. so- word to the wise- don't get too bound up in this result, or you may end up being VERY disappointed.
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Post by dezii on Sept 2, 2018 13:33:29 GMT -5
Following article is long but goes into great detail on a couple things regarding the Donald... First there is the influence of Russia on Trump...where the influence lies..and why Trump is under pressure from the Russians...Second is the Donalds feeling toward Israel....in reality, he's not really into Jews that much. ===================== "“House of Bush, House of Saud,” said Unger, explained “how the Saudis used America’s systems, often legally, to network their way up to the highest levels of power, especially with the Bush family.”
Vladimir Putin’s Russia, he believes, has done the same, with US President Donald J. Trump. Except that Russia’s penetration of America’s government, Unger charges, is infinitely more pervasive and dangerous than anything the Saudis ever sought, much less managed, to achieve." ----------------------------- "In his new book, “House of Trump, House of Putin,” which was published last week, Unger sets out to show how, through the decades, first the Russian mafia, and then the Russian oligarchs, built a network of relationships with Trump and with Trump’s business empire, which centrally included buying hundreds upon hundreds of luxury apartments ……"
-------------------------------------------- To read complete article click on link below...
www.timesofisrael.com/bestselling-us-author-russian-asset-trump-doesnt-truly-care-for-israel-jews/?utm_source=The+Times+of+Israel+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=4dde368fdd-EMAIL_WEEKEND_CAMPAIGN_2018_09_02_09_55&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_adb46cec92-4dde368fdd-55898693
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 4, 2018 12:24:01 GMT -5
RCP has the house race at +10D right now, and 538 has them at + . the 538 rating is far less conservative. it shows Democrats with 214 seats right now, which is just a whisker below what they need for control. precaution: this last week has been really bad for Trump, which is driving these numbers right now. i suspect that the House rating will tilt even further for Democrats in the coming week or two, as the REGIONAL polls catch up with the national ones.
overall ratings FOR ME remain the same.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 4, 2018 12:50:43 GMT -5
update: i just did some more checking this morning, and the numbers are the best for Democrats in a long time today. here is a sampling of what i saw: 1) the presidential approval survey shows that 6 of the last 8 polls done are in negative double digits (at least 10% more people disapprove of the president than approve). the only two outliers are Rasmussen at -8 (which is tied for the worst number in recent memory) and The Economist at -9. all told, the worst numbers for Trump since April.
2) the generic ballot numbers are coming in VERY strong for Democrats. they are at +9.5%, and now only 0.6% below their highs for this survey period (dating back to the last election). furthermore, the last FIVE polls all show Democrats with double digit leads over Republicans in the generic balloting, and a 4% gain in the last THREE WEEKS. in addition, the weekend polls for the competitive races all came in well for Democrats. ie: McCaskill is tied with her opponent, and DeSantis polled -2%.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 11, 2018 7:17:57 GMT -5
For fellow Georgia voters - more failures in the voting system:
www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/election-error-may-have-cost-georgia-lawmaker-his-race/ar-BBNa4M1
GOP candidate lost primary to another GOP candidate - then discovers people voting in his district either got ballots for another district or shouldn't have been allowed to vote in his district at all. With a margin of victory of 67 votes, that could easily mean he might have won, if the ballots hadn't been screwed up.
I'm sure Kemp will jump right on that problem, right after he wins in November. Unless he loses, which is probably impossible, given all the balloting problems.
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 11, 2018 8:03:49 GMT -5
update: i just did some more checking this morning, and the numbers are the best for Democrats in a long time today. here is a sampling of what i saw: 1) the presidential approval survey shows that 6 of the last 8 polls done are in negative double digits (at least 10% more people disapprove of the president than approve). the only two outliers are Rasmussen at -8 (which is tied for the worst number in recent memory) and The Economist at -9. all told, the worst numbers for Trump since April.
2) the generic ballot numbers are coming in VERY strong for Democrats. they are at +9.5%, and now only 0.6% below their highs for this survey period (dating back to the last election). furthermore, the last FIVE polls all show Democrats with double digit leads over Republicans in the generic balloting, and a 4% gain in the last THREE WEEKS. in addition, the weekend polls for the competitive races all came in well for Democrats. ie: McCaskill is tied with her opponent, and DeSantis polled -2%.
Sinema and McSally?
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2018 10:46:36 GMT -5
update: i just did some more checking this morning, and the numbers are the best for Democrats in a long time today. here is a sampling of what i saw: 1) the presidential approval survey shows that 6 of the last 8 polls done are in negative double digits (at least 10% more people disapprove of the president than approve). the only two outliers are Rasmussen at -8 (which is tied for the worst number in recent memory) and The Economist at -9. all told, the worst numbers for Trump since April.
2) the generic ballot numbers are coming in VERY strong for Democrats. they are at +9.5%, and now only 0.6% below their highs for this survey period (dating back to the last election). furthermore, the last FIVE polls all show Democrats with double digit leads over Republicans in the generic balloting, and a 4% gain in the last THREE WEEKS. in addition, the weekend polls for the competitive races all came in well for Democrats. ie: McCaskill is tied with her opponent, and DeSantis polled -2%.
Sinema and McSally? that one is also too close to call.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 11, 2018 14:16:47 GMT -5
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 11, 2018 15:24:03 GMT -5
that one is also too close to call. I was watching TV and 6 political ads in a row came on. One for McSally, one for Sinema, one against McSally, one against Sinema, one for a house candidate and one for a proposition. So, I won't be watching much network or basic cable television in October and the first couple of weeks of November.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2018 15:41:27 GMT -5
i am reducing the GOP odds of winning the Senate from 3:1 to 5:2 today. the GOP is in FIVE close contests. that has not changed. but what has
changed is that NV, MT, ND, and TX.
in NV and MT, Democrats now have a small but significant edge. in ND and TX, Republicans have approximately the same edge, but it is shrinking. if you are curious, the five states that are tossups are: IN, MO, TN, FL and AZ so yeah. that is NINE STATES, where it could go either way. this is a pretty nutty year. but Republicans are in the driver's seat, because Democrats would have to pretty much sweep them to win control of the Senate.
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