Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Sept 5, 2019 15:37:57 GMT -5
Okay people...worried about a recession? There was a report on private payrolls this morning. Higher than expected.... And there is this. DOW up 13% since December 31st 2018 S&P 500 up 17% since December 31st Nasdaq up 20% since the same date. Markets look like they willhate up again today, so if you believe what you post, I suggest you sell everything in the stock market today, and get out now! Even the manufacturing and payroll costs were stable. Yes, not growing but still stable. Quit talking yourself into economic failure. yeah, and the Dow and S&P are unchanged since Jan 2018, October 2018, and June 2019.
you are cherry picking. so am I. my point is that this market has headed pretty much nowhere for 2 years now. it is not clear at all where it is going in the intermediate term, nor is it clear where the economy is going.
for the record: my manufacturing business was FLAT for the four years ending December 31st of last year. however, since September of last year, our monthly sales are +30% over nominal. I am pretty sure it is related to the trade war, and the market sector we sell to (food and beverage). so, this is not me "talking myself into economic failure". this is me being realistic about an economy in the midst of a record expansion. in lazzez faire (sic) capitalism, markets have periodic downturns. it is STUPID to bet against them.
And my point to the people worrying about the recession, things are not as dire as they want to believe. Markets up another 1.25 to 1.4% today. People are beginning to talk theirself into a recession. As long as people are not laid off things will be good. The economy cannot go up quarter after quarter, year after year. Yes, we have been in a bull economy for quite awhile but I believe we are not over yet, and we have plenty of time to move assets around to protect them. When gold and silver start really moving upward, I will reassess my thoughts......I am not seeing Europe India and China buying up the precious metals yet. When they do, it might be the beginning of the end of our bullish economy. congratulations on the business. I know it can be a hard thing to make it successful year after year. Good job!.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Sept 5, 2019 15:41:19 GMT -5
Fox Business has always had a lot of gold and silver bulk and coin ads on the network. I have noticed CNBC has been having the same companies promoting this now. Do not know it is simply because gold and silver have gained some momentum price wise, or people are worried about the economy.....
|
|
countrygirl2
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 7, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Posts: 16,889
|
Post by countrygirl2 on Sept 5, 2019 18:59:43 GMT -5
My son did cash in and get out for awhile, he said he made quite a lot and didn't want to lose it. Yep he is prepared to pay the taxes on his taxable account.
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Sept 6, 2019 20:10:24 GMT -5
For all of you that have been hoping for a recession, don't look good.
|
|
countrygirl2
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 7, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Posts: 16,889
|
Post by countrygirl2 on Sept 6, 2019 21:29:19 GMT -5
Not looking forward to one, but its inevitable, just when. And since this ride up started with Obama its amazing its lasted this long.
Only wishing the average person were able to make a lot more money, I would love to see that.
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Sept 9, 2019 9:58:56 GMT -5
That recession is getting hard to come by with the Stock Markets going up!
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,077
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2019 1:19:41 GMT -5
yeah, and the Dow and S&P are unchanged since Jan 2018, October 2018, and June 2019.
you are cherry picking. so am I. my point is that this market has headed pretty much nowhere for 2 years now. it is not clear at all where it is going in the intermediate term, nor is it clear where the economy is going.
for the record: my manufacturing business was FLAT for the four years ending December 31st of last year. however, since September of last year, our monthly sales are +30% over nominal. I am pretty sure it is related to the trade war, and the market sector we sell to (food and beverage). so, this is not me "talking myself into economic failure". this is me being realistic about an economy in the midst of a record expansion. in lazzez faire (sic) capitalism, markets have periodic downturns. it is STUPID to bet against them.
And my point to the people worrying about the recession, things are not as dire as they want to believe. Markets up another 1.25 to 1.4% today. People are beginning to talk theirself into a recession. or they are just being cautious.
Peter Schiff is wrong about 9 times out of 10. but when he is right, 90% of the other market callers are wrong.
so, I don't know. every cynic I have ever met calls themselves a realist.
and every optimist I know is called hopelessly naiive by the cynics.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,077
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2019 1:21:24 GMT -5
That recession is getting hard to come by with the Stock Markets going up!
stock market is approaching it's fourth test of 27000. it has broken it only once, and by only 2%.
and yeah, maybe this is it. but after 8 years of solid gains (followed by 2 years of nothing), that is increasingly unlikely.
then again, sometimes Old Maggot Drawers wins the Preakness.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Sept 10, 2019 7:48:12 GMT -5
And my point to the people worrying about the recession, things are not as dire as they want to believe. Markets up another 1.25 to 1.4% today. People are beginning to talk theirself into a recession. or they are just being cautious.
Peter Schiff is wrong about 9 times out of 10. but when he is right, 90% of the other market callers are wrong.
so, I don't know. every cynic I have ever met calls themselves a realist.
and every optimist I know is called hopelessly naiive by the cynics.
That description pretty much applies to me........
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Sept 11, 2019 6:35:55 GMT -5
What do you mean,, I have 20/20 hindsight!!
|
|
Tiny
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 29, 2010 21:22:34 GMT -5
Posts: 13,365
|
Post by Tiny on Sept 11, 2019 11:59:41 GMT -5
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Sept 12, 2019 9:10:04 GMT -5
Today's unemployment jobless claims numbers were down 14,000 Another sign a recession is not happening very soon.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Sept 12, 2019 9:12:57 GMT -5
Has anyone noticed the Transportation Index has been climbibng the last ten days? The stock markets have been switching out of high flying tech and growth stocks into retail and industrials and trandportation for a week signalling a strong economy. The stock market is now sending a message that a recession is not imminent.
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Sept 12, 2019 9:14:11 GMT -5
With all the Now Hiring signs out, this is my kind of recession. Funny yesterday on talk radio, A Company is advertising their product, at the end of the commerical was a Come join our team! Then I thought ,, Hmmmm, if you don't have enough people working for you Do I want you to start my job then delay it because you don't have enough help??
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Sept 12, 2019 14:07:31 GMT -5
Interesting Day. Draghi in the EU Central bank cut ten basis points on the interest rates. Inflation numbers in U.S. are trending upward. Employee pay is increasing close to 3% DOW and S&P 500 are close to all time highs. Some business people are now insisting the Fed should not cut interest rates because our economy is fine.
The EU is the wild card right now. They are hurting.
|
|
countrygirl2
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 7, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Posts: 16,889
|
Post by countrygirl2 on Sept 14, 2019 20:02:50 GMT -5
Inflation is here for our communities. Water, sewer, and electric have all raised. Hubs used 42 kwh's of electric in his garage the light bill was $68!! I couldn't believe it. That is unreal, my water bill is near $100. The sewer bill and trash at the rent house where hubs is working has no water usage. That bill went to $44. One of my tenants is having a fit, her water, sewer, gas, and electric have raised plus her cable, in the last 2 months.
Glad to know people are doing well elsewhere, this just keeps eating away at spendable cash. I got our electric bill down to $220. I think we might have not been using the AC for a week out of the month on this one, not sure. The last 2 have gone down for our house at least.
|
|
haapai
Junior Associate
Character
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 20:40:06 GMT -5
Posts: 5,883
|
Post by haapai on Sept 18, 2019 18:48:21 GMT -5
The UAW is striking against GM again.
When this last happened, in 2007, I wished that I had a child to tuck into a car and drive by the picket lines. I wanted to show the next generation what a UAW strike looked like, especially since I was almost certain that they would never get another opportunity to see one.
The 2007 strike only lasted two days but was a big factor in sending Michigan into recession about a year ahead of the rest of the country.
I'm braced for a repeat. FWIW, nobody in my family or circle of acquaintances works for GM or any of their suppliers. I just live in a GM town and even very short strikes have pretty dire effects. When the highest-paid blue collar workers in an area and all of the other folks in the supply chain lose a week of pay, or even have to think about it, discretionary spending shrinks enormously. Everyone feels it.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Sept 18, 2019 19:56:34 GMT -5
The UAW is striking against GM again.
When this last happened, in 2007, I wished that I had a child to tuck into a car and drive by the picket lines. I wanted to show the next generation what a UAW strike looked like, especially since I was almost certain that they would never get another opportunity to see one.
The 2007 strike only lasted two days but was a big factor in sending Michigan into recession about a year ahead of the rest of the country.
I'm braced for a repeat. FWIW, nobody in my family or circle of acquaintances works for GM or any of their suppliers. I just live in a GM town and even very short strikes have pretty dire effects. When the highest-paid blue collar workers in an area and all of the other folks in the supply chain lose a week of pay, or even have to think about it, discretionary spending shrinks enormously. Everyone feels it.
I think the old contract guarentees them their basic 40 hour pay regardless if they are working. They just do not get overtime or profit sharing, etc. They even have GM pay their healthcare the rest of September. because it is paid up front for the month.
|
|
haapai
Junior Associate
Character
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 20:40:06 GMT -5
Posts: 5,883
|
Post by haapai on Sept 18, 2019 21:31:33 GMT -5
I don't think that you're getting my drift. I'm hardly crying for GM workers who are currently on strike. Good G-- no! They should be prepared for this. Whether they are old-tier or new-tier, they are still better paid than most folks and much more tuned in to whether GM will be the next strike target or not.
It's everyone else who gets pummeled when they go on strike. The last strike only lasted two days but it took weeks for the suppliers to reboot and get things back to normal. A whole lot of folks in the supply chain lost several more days of work and quite a few GM-dependent companies broke under the financial strain imposed by the strike. Or maybe those companies just used the financial disruption of the strike to throw in the towel.
Then there were the folks who had no formal connection to the auto business but were dependent on the disposable income of those who did. Anyone who worked retail or hospitality remembers 2007-2009 as a really bad time.
The folks who worked in home repair, maintenance and improvement during that time generally cannot talk about it. It got bad enough that they still either don't know what hit them or prefer not to talk about it.
OTOH, when I bought my house in 2010, I identified nine properties on my block as being very vulnerable to foreclosure. Only a third of them subsequently went through foreclosure. The rest managed to hold on. There might be a rule somewhere that if you can survive the first two years of a financial shock, your odds of survival get much better after that.
|
|
Tiny
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 29, 2010 21:22:34 GMT -5
Posts: 13,365
|
Post by Tiny on Sept 19, 2019 12:59:36 GMT -5
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Sept 19, 2019 14:28:40 GMT -5
Yep, all the way down to 2.9% growth for the world......not exactly on fire, but absolutly not stone cold dead either. I am shocked it was that high during the 2008 collapse. When America sneeezes most of the world catches a really bad cold economically speaking. I am surprised world growth was projected even that high since the growth is basically in India China U.S.A. and Canada. Yes, if it down from previous highs we can call it a recession but 2.9% is not that bad. Remember President Obama said we were done with 3% growth rates so if you believed that then why worry now?
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Sept 20, 2019 13:38:52 GMT -5
|
|
countrygirl2
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 7, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Posts: 16,889
|
Post by countrygirl2 on Sept 21, 2019 22:39:51 GMT -5
I was reading through how many more retail stores are going out of business, stopping business in 2019, most are dragging their agony out to 2020. And many stores that are hanging on are closing outlets everywhere. One store bankruptcy alone is going to put 18000 workers out of work and there are thousands more effected. Maybe a lot of the workers are part time or contract so don't count, but its going to hurt and those folks won't find replacement jobs. They say its online sales, don't think its all that, I think retail is not keeping pace, I mean you sell size 12 and your market is 24, something has to give. Or you sell crap no one wants same issue, I think that is a lot of it. And not everyone is buying online, I read where Amazon is trying to work up a method to sell to those with just cash and not credit only, so they are seeing that also. I think the money just isn't there and also a lot of stores sell basically the same things so not as many can support those $30 million dollar executives and have anything left to run the stores, may thin out those guys too.
The other thing I don't understand is the fed has had to inject cash the last 5 days into the banking system, something like $75 billion at a time because banks don't have enough cash. It said they have been buying in the repo system, not houses, treasuries. So are they buying the national debt and therefore don't have money to put in the system? Is it because China isn't buying our debt? I don't know, I'm asking. Now those short term rates for a few days are really high, then fall back down. They said this has not had to be done since 2008, so what is going on. They are saying its a big deal but you only really hear about it on Bloomberg, but sounds complicated so likely pointless to make much ado over it in the general public. Could start a run on the banks I would guess. I know the last few days I have gotten money from the bank all new money, so are we just printing more physical money. Something here seems amiss to me.
I will wait on you gurus to explain this to me.
Yes, things sound good but are they, seems like a lot of chaos behind the scenes.
|
|
flow5
Well-Known Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:18:02 GMT -5
Posts: 1,778
|
Post by flow5 on Oct 15, 2019 18:13:25 GMT -5
Depends upon your definition of a recession. The current downswing will end in February 2020. There will not be 2 negative rates-of-change in R-gDp for the 2020 period. The most significant change will be the reversal in inflation in April. Rates-of-change in money flows, volume times transactions' velocity = RoC's in P*T (where N-gDp is both a subset and proxy in American Yale Professor Irving Fisher's trusitic: "equation of exchange"). Secular Strangulation is simply the idling of savings in the payment's System. See:The riddle of money, finally solved BY PHILIP GEORGE www.philipji.com/riddle-of-money/
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Nov 7, 2019 15:09:15 GMT -5
That recession is getting hard to come by with the Stock Markets going up!
stock market is approaching it's fourth test of 27000. it has broken it only once, and by only 2%.
and yeah, maybe this is it. but after 8 years of solid gains (followed by 2 years of nothing), that is increasingly unlikely.
then again, sometimes Old Maggot Drawers wins the Preakness.
Record DOW Record S&P 500 Record Nasdaq Ten yr bond 1.92% Inverted yield curve is distant history. Bank complex breaking out Transports confirm the break out for the DOW Recession is kaput.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Nov 7, 2019 15:09:35 GMT -5
|
|
countrygirl2
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 7, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Posts: 16,889
|
Post by countrygirl2 on Nov 17, 2019 23:55:45 GMT -5
And yet I read the other day over 40% of the people in this country make low wages. It is great for those at the top they have all the resources. For the rest not so good. And more and more will go to the top, no other way at this point. Someday like other countries the poor will rise up, they will get tired of fighting for pennies and never getting ahead. They finally killed unions and destroyed the middle class.
The rich will continue investing in the market, where else do they and other negative interest countries have to put there money?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Apr 25, 2024 17:39:07 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2019 12:35:00 GMT -5
And yet I read the other day over 40% of the people in this country make low wages. It is great for those at the top they have all the resources. For the rest not so good. And more and more will go to the top, no other way at this point. Someday like other countries the poor will rise up, they will get tired of fighting for pennies and never getting ahead. They finally killed unions and destroyed the middle class. The rich will continue investing in the market, where else do they and other negative interest countries have to put there money? The unions killed themselves, by backing the party that advocates free trade agreements. While basically pricing themselves out of the global market. Did you think the rich would care ?
|
|
countrygirl2
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 7, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Posts: 16,889
|
Post by countrygirl2 on Dec 9, 2019 23:44:36 GMT -5
They did and no the rich is applauding it.
Just read where another trucking company, Celadon went bellyup, 4000 employees wiped out, 3200 that may be stranded with fuel cards not being accepted. Another 1000 truckers have lost jobs.
I read trucking company bankruptcies are up, just plucked this from the net: 2019 has been a challenging year for truck drivers and their employers. About 640 trucking companies went bankrupt in the first half of the year, according to industry data from Broughton Capital LLC. That's more than triple the roughly 175 bankruptcies from the same period last year.
Taking a longer view, the FMCSA data shows an additional 105,166 trucking companies, in every size of carrier, have entered the market since 2012, with the number of carriers with one to 100 trucks growing fastest. These companies are active carriers with authority and insurance.
At the same time, FMCSA data shows there are 723,902 more US truck drivers in 2019 than in 2012. That eight-year period began in a weak market, the economic “soft patch” of 2012-13, and ends in another soft period, albeit the 10th consecutive year of economic expansion.
That’s why the current rash of trucking company bankruptcies or failures is doing little to reduce excess truck capacity. Bankruptcies tend more to reshuffle capacity, as drivers are rehired by other companies and tractors and trailers are purchased by other trucking operators.
So sounds like rates down and costs up.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,077
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jan 31, 2020 3:24:31 GMT -5
Fox Business has always had a lot of gold and silver bulk and coin ads on the network. I have noticed CNBC has been having the same companies promoting this now. Do not know it is simply because gold and silver have gained some momentum price wise, or people are worried about the economy..... gold and silver typically gain momentum when people are worried about the economy.
but you know that.
|
|