North Korea and the Bomb

[Virgil Showlion]

Reuters summarizes the situation as follows:

[Pres. Trump] faces North Korea, but stopping its nuclear and missile program may prove impossible, creating what may be his first and perhaps defining international crisis.

Trump has been left to confront North Korea’s nuclear activities because his predecessors failed to manage them. The regime in Pyongyang, meanwhile, continues to build ever more dangerous – and hard-to-destroy or intercept – weapons systems.

North Korea has been a thorn in the side of the United States since the days of Harry S. Truman. The Korean War came dangerously close to sparking a nuclear confrontation, with the White House preventing U.S. commander Douglas MacArthur from using atomic weapons to stop the Chinese and North Korean armies. Under Pyongyang’s current leader Kim Jong-un, it is reaching what may be its most dangerous point since then.

Washington’s foreign policy establishment has a host of disagreements with Trump. They think he is wrong on immigration, too soft on Russia, too dangerously hawkish on China. On North Korea they are in the same hole as he is with no real ideas about how to get out.

This is a crisis everyone has seen coming. That’s why Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been so desperate to court Trump, visiting him even before the inauguration. As North Korea launched an intermediate medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday, Abe was once again with the president – this time on a golf and bonding trip to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida retreat.

...

Pyongyang first demonstrated its ability to detonate a crude nuclear device in 2006 – becoming the only Iraq- or Iran-style “rogue state” to ever get that far. Since then, it has continued to develop not just the bombs but also the missiles to deliver them.

If this alone doesn't make you nervous enough, couple it with Kim Jong Un's increasingly paranoid and erratic behaviour over the years. For good measure, also toss in the fact that his half-brother was assassinated in Malaysia two days ago, with North Korean agents being the chief suspects.

What to do? What to do?

What would you do?

I'd prefer that this thread be about nuclear weapons, North Korea, and what the US's policy ought to be. Not about Pres. Trump. If you want to discuss Pres. Trump, please take your pick of the 6,000 threads where he's the topic. My thanks in advance for your consideration.

[swamp]

I don't really see how we can discuss US policy without discussing Trump, but I'll give it a shot.

Normal diplomacy doesn't work because Kim Jong Il isn't normal, and really doesn't give a crap about starving his population.  They already have every sanction in the world imposed on them, and it's not doing squat.

They are China's annoying little cousin in that corner of the world. China needs to take the lead and squash the guy.

[billisonboard]

Feb 14, 2017 15:35:10 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Reuters summarizes the situation as follows:

...

FWIW: "The views expressed in this article are not those of Reuters News" so it should be Peter Apps summarizes the situation as follows: ...

Now to go back and see what I think of his analysis.

[Virgil Showlion]

Feb 14, 2017 15:43:24 GMT -5 swamp said:

I don't really see how we can discuss US policy without discussing Trump, but I'll give it a shot.

Normal diplomacy doesn't work because Kim Jong Il isn't normal, and really doesn't give a crap about starving his population.  They already have every sanction in the world imposed on them, and it's not doing squat.

They are China's annoying little cousin in that corner of the world. China needs to take the lead and squash the guy.

Would you support radical measures by the Chinese? For example, if they bombed Pyongyang into dust and killed several million people? Realistically that's what it would take to end the current regime.

Also, the Chinese aren't known for being subtle.

[swamp]

Feb 14, 2017 15:55:47 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Feb 14, 2017 15:43:24 GMT -5 swamp said:

I don't really see how we can discuss US policy without discussing Trump, but I'll give it a shot.

Normal diplomacy doesn't work because Kim Jong Il isn't normal, and really doesn't give a crap about starving his population.  They already have every sanction in the world imposed on them, and it's not doing squat.

They are China's annoying little cousin in that corner of the world. China needs to take the lead and squash the guy.

Would you support radical measures by the Chinese? For example, if they bombed Pyongyang into dust and killed several million people? Realistically that's what it would take to end the current regime.

Also, the Chinese aren't known for being subtle.

No.

Can't they just bomb the crazy little bastard? If we can find Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan, they should be able to find this dude.

[Green Eyed Lady]

Find Crazy Dude and bury him at sea. 

[billisonboard]

I remember being concerned with Bush's Axis of Evil talk.  Taking a self defense class is not an unreasonable reaction to being threatened, especially when you witness someone else on the list being beat up.

[Virgil Showlion]

Feb 14, 2017 15:57:11 GMT -5 swamp said:

Feb 14, 2017 15:55:47 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Would you support radical measures by the Chinese? For example, if they bombed Pyongyang into dust and killed several million people? Realistically that's what it would take to end the current regime.

Also, the Chinese aren't known for being subtle.

No.

Can't they just bomb the crazy little bastard? If we can find Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan, they should be able to find this dude.

I believe the South Koreans tried assassinating his predecessor (Jong Il), supposedly at the behest of the US State Department.

The problem with a surgical approach is twofold:

1. Jong Un has no clear successor (indeed he seems to be killing them off with great efficiency) hence nobody knows who'd take control with him out of the way. That includes control of their nuclear arsenal. The odds it will be somebody stable and willing to disregard the assassination of their predecessor in order to pursue peace? I'm guessing pretty slim.
   
   
2. What if the attempt fails?

[Virgil Showlion]

Feb 14, 2017 16:04:04 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I remember being concerned with Bush's Axis of Evil talk.  Taking a self defense class is not an unreasonable reaction to being threatened, especially when you witness someone else on the list being beat up.

The difference being that Iraq didn't conduct WMD tests for the whole world to see whilst issuing ultimatums. North Korea routinely does.

[Tiny]

Feb 14, 2017 15:57:11 GMT -5 swamp said:

Feb 14, 2017 15:55:47 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Would you support radical measures by the Chinese? For example, if they bombed Pyongyang into dust and killed several million people? Realistically that's what it would take to end the current regime.

Also, the Chinese aren't known for being subtle.

No.

Can't they just bomb the crazy little bastard? If we can find Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan, they should be able to find this dude.

North Korea is China's problem.  One of the reasons they leave Kim Un Jong be is he provides a nice bit of diversion - He rattles his sabre at South Korea/Japan/the US and we all can't do much - because to do so would most likely provoke war with China (and it's allies - Russia, Cuba, some countries in South America) (gas might get really expensive here in the US, too)

My best guess as to why China WON"T  'take out' Kim Un Jong is that if that happens millions of people will spill over the border into China - people who aren't really prepared for life outside North Korea.   People who China DOESN"T want (the same way the US doesn't want Mexicans and Muslims).    (google the difficulties some defector North Koreans have 'adjusting' to life outside the DPRK....)

[Tiny]

I'm not sure nuking Pyongyang would kill Kim Un Jong or his government - I hear they have created a vast city deep underground...

I'm pretty sure they've been building underground bunkers for decades -  The DPRK leadership has quite a work force and I'm sure they have to keep that workforce busy...

[Virgil Showlion]

Feb 14, 2017 16:14:27 GMT -5 Tiny said:

Feb 14, 2017 15:57:11 GMT -5 swamp said:

No.

Can't they just bomb the crazy little bastard? If we can find Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan, they should be able to find this dude.

North Korea is China's problem.  One of the reasons they leave Kim Un Jong be is he provides a nice bit of diversion - He rattles his sabre at South Korea/Japan/the US and we all can't do much - because to do so would most likely provoke war with China (and it's allies - Russia, Cuba, some countries in South America) (gas might get really expensive here in the US, too)

My best guess as to why China WON"T  'take out' Kim Un Jong is that if that happens millions of people will spill over the border into China - people who aren't really prepared for life outside North Korea.   People who China DOESN"T want (the same way the US doesn't want Mexicans and Muslims).    (google the difficulties some defector North Koreans have 'adjusting' to life outside the DPRK....)

I was able to find this piece by the BBC:

www.bbc.com/news/magazine-22209894

It alludes to the fact that most North Koreans have never used a phone, driven a car, accessed an ATM, etc. and are (understandably) poorly educated. Is that what you're referring to?

[swamp]

Feb 14, 2017 16:09:11 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Feb 14, 2017 15:57:11 GMT -5 swamp said:

No.

Can't they just bomb the crazy little bastard? If we can find Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan, they should be able to find this dude.

I believe the South Koreans tried assassinating his predecessor (Jong Il), supposedly at the behest of the US State Department.

The problem with a surgical approach is twofold:

1. Jong Un has no clear successor (indeed he seems to be killing them off with great efficiency) hence nobody knows who'd take control with him out of the way. That includes control of their nuclear arsenal. The odds it will be somebody stable and willing to disregard the assassination of their predecessor in order to pursue peace? I'm guessing pretty slim.
   
   
2. What if the attempt fails?

I don't know.

That's why I don't pretend I can be president.

[Virgil Showlion]

Feb 14, 2017 16:22:22 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

There are two thorny problems with North Korea, without which they would have been slapped down long ago.

1) They are ostensibly an "Ally" of China's, and China has commitments of military support of NK.
2) NK has tremendous firepower within range of Seoul, South Korea, our staunch ally.  We have 28,000 troops stationed in Korea.

It seems to me that our best first attempt at controlling NK is through their (reluctant) protector, the People's Republic of China.  We have things that they want, and they have things that we want, namely a docile North Korea. 

China too is backed in a corner here though.  They have commitments to NK, but they go deeper than the ink on a treaty.  China is the Middle Kingdom- also known as the Central Kingdom, and Koreans are their kin.  China is the self proclaimed center of the region, and the cultural authority and protector of all the reaches.  They are culturally obligated to protect their own and their brethren.  On a more earthly level, they are also loath to see a competing power on the continent, and they are also loath to see the humiliation of the United States subjugation of a border state and neighbor of theirs, with whom they have formal obligations. 

OTOH, NK is a real PITA for the Chinese.  I would bet that Xing would be almost as happy as us if they would suddenly be free of this dysfunctional government on their doorstep. 

They could not easily tolerate an American attack on NK.  Furthermore, any such attack would bring massive death and ruin upon Seoul and South Korea, if only because of their immediate proximity.  This has been Kim's insurance up until his current quest for nukes.  However, they are surely as unsettled by the concept of a nuclear armed NK as is the rest of the world.

Our first overture should be through China, by any means that is palatable to the outside world.  A coup, a revolution, or any such regime change would certainly do.  Even though this would also be in China's interest, their price would be steep.  Perhaps our quiet acquiescence to their demands in the South China Sea? 

Even if this devil's bargain were attainable between China and the US though, is it even possible for China to engineer such a stunning coup in the hermit Kingdom?  Probably not.  And you can be sure they have tried by other means to reign in their nuclear plans, with no success.  So what next?

With the devil's deal with China in place, it is possible to engineer an "international agreement" to serve an ultimatum, as it were, to NK.  Stop your nuclear program or face a UN response.  With China's silence this could be brokered.  The Russians too are dismayed by Kim's loose nukes.

All that is left is the response.  Sadly, if NK calls the bluff, and they would, the "International" response by the US would trigger the destruction of Seoul before NK could be neutralized (which itself would be quite a feat, given their military power)  The Koreans would have to evacuate Seoul and the northern part of their country prior to the "action" to save their people from this onslaught.

At this point North Korea can be neutralized without creating an incident (war) with Red China, and the Korean damage can be somewhat repaired with international (US) aid to rebuild.  China can make what they wish with NK, assuming we are unable to convince them that the Korea's should re-unite with Seoul as the capital.

You asked. 

Wow.

OK. I did get through this.

In summary: play nice with China (e.g. reversing stance on South China Sea) to purchase their silence, issue NK an ultimatum to cease and desist, watch them give us the finger, bomb them into dust before they bomb Seoul into dust (hopefully), let China clean up the pieces.

Is that about right?

It's a doozy of a "best option", but I can't think of anything better.

[djAdvocate]

[Tiny]

Feb 14, 2017 16:26:04 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Feb 14, 2017 16:14:27 GMT -5 Tiny said:

North Korea is China's problem.  One of the reasons they leave Kim Un Jong be is he provides a nice bit of diversion - He rattles his sabre at South Korea/Japan/the US and we all can't do much - because to do so would most likely provoke war with China (and it's allies - Russia, Cuba, some countries in South America) (gas might get really expensive here in the US, too)

My best guess as to why China WON"T  'take out' Kim Un Jong is that if that happens millions of people will spill over the border into China - people who aren't really prepared for life outside North Korea.   People who China DOESN"T want (the same way the US doesn't want Mexicans and Muslims).    (google the difficulties some defector North Koreans have 'adjusting' to life outside the DPRK....)

I was able to find this piece by the BBC:

www.bbc.com/news/magazine-22209894

It alludes to the fact that most North Koreans have never used a phone, driven a car, accessed an ATM, etc. and are (understandably) poorly educated. Is that what you're referring to?

Yes,  they might be going from a moderately comfortable for them station in life in the DPRK to the "bottom of the social pile" in China.     Think about it - if you have a job and are moderately comfortable with your life (compared to everyone in society around you) and you get thrown into a society where you are viewed as poor and uneducated and useless - being back home where you might have had some 'respect' might start to look good.

[Tiny]

Feb 14, 2017 16:22:22 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

There are two thorny problems with North Korea, without which they would have been slapped down long ago.

1) They are ostensibly an "Ally" of China's, and China has commitments of military support of NK.
2) NK has tremendous firepower within range of Seoul, South Korea, our staunch ally.  We have 28,000 troops stationed in Korea.

It seems to me that our best first attempt at controlling NK is through their (reluctant) protector, the People's Republic of China.  We have things that they want, and they have things that we want, namely a docile North Korea. 

China too is backed in a corner here though.  They have commitments to NK, but they go deeper than the ink on a treaty.  China is the Middle Kingdom- also known as the Central Kingdom, and Koreans are their kin.  China is the self proclaimed center of the region, and the cultural authority and protector of all the reaches.  They are culturally obligated to protect their own and their brethren.  On a more earthly level, they are also loath to see a competing power on the continent, and they are also loath to see the humiliation of the United States subjugation of a border state and neighbor of theirs, with whom they have formal obligations. 

OTOH, NK is a real PITA for the Chinese.  I would bet that Xing would be almost as happy as us if they would suddenly be free of this dysfunctional government on their doorstep. 

They could not easily tolerate an American attack on NK.  Furthermore, any such attack would bring massive death and ruin upon Seoul and South Korea, if only because of their immediate proximity.  This has been Kim's insurance up until his current quest for nukes.  However, they are surely as unsettled by the concept of a nuclear armed NK as is the rest of the world.

Our first overture should be through China, by any means that is palatable to the outside world.  A coup, a revolution, or any such regime change would certainly do.  Even though this would also be in China's interest, their price would be steep.  Perhaps our quiet acquiescence to their demands in the South China Sea? 

Even if this devil's bargain were attainable between China and the US though, is it even possible for China to engineer such a stunning coup in the hermit Kingdom?  Probably not.  And you can be sure they have tried by other means to reign in their nuclear plans, with no success.  So what next?

With the devil's deal with China in place, it is possible to engineer an "international agreement" to serve an ultimatum, as it were, to NK.  Stop your nuclear program or face a UN response.  With China's silence this could be brokered.  The Russians too are dismayed by Kim's loose nukes.

All that is left is the response.  Sadly, if NK calls the bluff, and they would, the "International" response by the US would trigger the destruction of Seoul before NK could be neutralized (which itself would be quite a feat, given their military power)  The Koreans would have to evacuate Seoul and the northern part of their country prior to the "action" to save their people from this onslaught.

At this point North Korea can be neutralized without creating an incident (war) with Red China, and the Korean damage can be somewhat repaired with international (US) aid to rebuild.  China can make what they wish with NK, assuming we are unable to convince them that the Korea's should re-unite with Seoul as the capital.

You asked. 

You've not outlined the option where North Korea actually attacks South Korea (or Japan or maybe a US warship or just launches a big enough missile so that their intention is unclear) possibly ACCIDENTALLY or maybe intentionally.   North Korea has been a bit trigger happy in the past.     And that starts a War...     At that point - I'm not sure what China does....

[Tiny]

On a sort of humorous angle.... I'm going to assume that most American Media will opt to NOT carry any translations of the propaganda that North Korea will spew about the US and TRUMP over the next couple of months - unlike in prior years. Much of it will be very inflammatory and I'm sure North Korea will call Trump a few choice phrases and perhaps insult his wife and children and his sexual prowess and appetite.     I have to admit they are often colorful in their insults.

I would think that publishing those kinds of insults from North Korea would whip Trump's supporters (and possibly Trump) into a frenzy DEMANDING the annihilation of North Korea.     I don't think Trump will want to explain to his constituency why he CAN"T Nuke North Korea. 

So, I expect this Spring to have a bit less reporting of the sabre rattling and less actual content of what is spewed at the US.

On the other hand, if someone DID want to whip up the Trump "annihilation" machine - reporting on ALL the NK stuff  might be the way to do it.     

(FWIW:  I'd pay to see Trump and Kim Jong un on a stage at podiums trading insults and alternative facts.)

[billisonboard]

Feb 14, 2017 16:12:35 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Feb 14, 2017 16:04:04 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I remember being concerned with Bush's Axis of Evil talk.  Taking a self defense class is not an unreasonable reaction to being threatened, especially when you witness someone else on the list being beat up.

The difference being that Iraq didn't conduct WMD tests for the whole world to see whilst issuing ultimatums. North Korea routinely does.

Iraq got invaded and Saddam was overthrown. North Korea hasn't been invaded. We could ask the leaders who made the better choice. Wait, Saddam is dead.

[tallguy]

Feb 14, 2017 17:32:08 GMT -5 Tiny said:

On a sort of humorous angle.... I'm going to assume that most American Media will opt to NOT carry any translations of the propaganda that North Korea will spew about the US and TRUMP over the next couple of months - unlike in prior years. Much of it will be very inflammatory and I'm sure North Korea will call Trump a few choice phrases and perhaps insult his wife and children and his sexual prowess and appetite.     I have to admit they are often colorful in their insults.

I would think that publishing those kinds of insults from North Korea would whip Trump's supporters (and possibly Trump) into a frenzy DEMANDING the annihilation of North Korea.     I don't think Trump will want to explain to his constituency why he CAN"T Nuke North Korea. 

So, I expect this Spring to have a bit less reporting of the sabre rattling and less actual content of what is spewed at the US.

On the other hand, if someone DID want to whip up the Trump "annihilation" machine - reporting on ALL the NK stuff  might be the way to do it.     

(FWIW:  I'd pay to see Trump and Kim Jong un on a stage at podiums trading insults and alternative facts.)

That sounds a little dull, actually.  Linda McMahon was just confirmed.  Put it on WWE.  I'm sure she still has some pull there.    

[Deleted]

Dennis Rodman didn't work so my best idea is out.

Dem write it up better than I could, I can't imagine any intervention where South Korea isn't toast. I think you continue to see everyone waiting it out hoping it falls from within, say it does, it will make German unification look like a picnic.

[Tennesseer]

Kim Jim JonesJong-un

[Tiny]

Feb 14, 2017 18:35:51 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Feb 14, 2017 17:32:08 GMT -5 Tiny said:

On a sort of humorous angle.... I'm going to assume that most American Media will opt to NOT carry any translations of the propaganda that North Korea will spew about the US and TRUMP over the next couple of months - unlike in prior years. Much of it will be very inflammatory and I'm sure North Korea will call Trump a few choice phrases and perhaps insult his wife and children and his sexual prowess and appetite.     I have to admit they are often colorful in their insults.

I would think that publishing those kinds of insults from North Korea would whip Trump's supporters (and possibly Trump) into a frenzy DEMANDING the annihilation of North Korea.     I don't think Trump will want to explain to his constituency why he CAN"T Nuke North Korea. 

So, I expect this Spring to have a bit less reporting of the sabre rattling and less actual content of what is spewed at the US.

On the other hand, if someone DID want to whip up the Trump "annihilation" machine - reporting on ALL the NK stuff  might be the way to do it.     

(FWIW:  I'd pay to see Trump and Kim Jong un on a stage at podiums trading insults and alternative facts.)

That sounds a little dull, actually.  Linda McMahon was just confirmed.  Put it on WWE.  I'm sure she still has some pull there.    

two fat guys rolling around on a stage trying to punch each other sounds kind of dreadful (maybe I'm unclear on what the WWE is...?)

Two fat blowhards spewing creative insults at each other and getting into a battle of one-upmanship could result in some very funny stuff...      kind of like a battle of "your mother" jokes. 

 

[Deleted]

North Korea is deterred by actual response scenarios.

[Spellbound454]

I suppose the War between North and South Korea never really ended.....They are under armistice guaranteed for the North by China and the South by the US.
If the South is attacked by the North..... then you guys go to War.
Whether China let them get that far, who knows.
I think China don't want their borders flooded by loads of Korean refugees so they keep their petulant neighbours at arms length.

My gut feeling is that the dynasty has an end date......Kim Jong Il died and the people realised that he wasn't a God after all after all.
They are getting better access to the internet and realise the threat of anihilation by the US, contrary to what they have been told..... isn't actually there.

Kim Jong-un only holds on to power by executing all those who threaten his leadership....How long can that go on?
He doesn't have the necessary charisma for a genuine leader and he rules only by fear and subjugation.

You can't keep people in the dark forever....the concern is that the more desperate their leader becomes.... he gets the more unpredictable his behaviour gets.. 

[Virgil Showlion]

Feb 15, 2017 18:01:34 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

They are getting better access to the internet and realise the threat of anihilation by the US, contrary to what they have been told..... isn't actually there.

Where are you getting this from?

It's my understanding that not only is the Internet locked down tighter than Fort Knox (for the previous few who can even access it), any group of three or more North Koreans has at least one government spy. Any pro-US or anti-government website would be discovered and blacklisted immediately. Anyone accessing that kind of thing would be taking their life into their own hands.

I don't see the Internet "fixing" this one.

[verrip1]

Two questions to firm up the thought processes, since Chuck Norris, Jason Stratham and Steven Seagal are otherwise occupied:

1.  What would it take to get you to support a US (and possibly multinational) naval and air blockade of North Korea if the Chinese concurred (either passively or actively)?  Taking into account that, because of the direct result of the blockade, hundreds of thousands of North Koreans would die of hunger or disease (no humanitarian assistance acceptable).

2.  What would it take to get you to support a US (and possibly multinational) military attack of North Korea, of whatever form but which the Chinese agreed to allow, which killed the same hundreds of thousands of North Koreans directly or indirectly?

No one need reply.  The goal is for folks to think about a) the relative moral acceptabilities of killing people based on how the killings were accomplished, and b) how far you would tolerate North Korean aggression before supporting any action which would induce significant casualties.

[billisonboard]

Feb 15, 2017 23:35:03 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

... a US (and possibly multinational) naval and air blockade of North Korea ...

... a US (and possibly multinational) military attack of North Korea, ...

... how far you would tolerate North Korean aggression ...

What is aggression and what is defense?

[verrip1]

Feb 15, 2017 23:51:05 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Feb 15, 2017 23:35:03 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

... a US (and possibly multinational) naval and air blockade of North Korea ...

... a US (and possibly multinational) military attack of North Korea, ...

... how far you would tolerate North Korean aggression ...

What is aggression and what is defense?

I'm sure you can find a dictionary if you look a bit ...

Carry on.

[billisonboard]

Feb 15, 2017 23:57:45 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

Feb 15, 2017 23:51:05 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

What is aggression and what is defense?

I'm sure you can find a dictionary if you look a bit ...

Carry on.

Thought it was worth the effort to ask the question. O' well.