Primaries: NY, and April 26th

[djAdvocate]

so, first we have the NY primary.  right now, the numbers are VERY stable on that.

Trump leads by 30-35%, and is giving no ground.  the real question becomes whether either of his opponents get 20%+, which is the cutoff for getting ANY delegates.  i think that it is LIKELY that at least one will, but it is close.

Clinton leads by 10-15%, and is giving no ground.  it is possible that Sanders catches her, but again, he has to win SIGNIFICANTLY to set up for what comes after....

on April 26th, there are a LOT of delegates available.  Trump needs to sweep NY (win all of the delegates) to have a chance at winning the nomination, imo.  Clinton needs to WIN NY, even by a small margin, to set up for a win on April 26th, which will all-but-seal her nomination.

Trump and Clinton both need to do well in NY- but Trump needs to do MUCH better than Clinton does.  let's see what happens! 

my predictions:

i think Trump wins with 50%+, and that both Kasich and Cruz get over 20%, forcing him to give up some delegates, and that he does not have enough gas to win the nomination outright.

i think that Clinton also wins with 50%+, takes the majority of the delegates, and sets herself up to win the nomination on June 7th.

[Tennesseer]

Not that it will much matter in total votes for him, but Trump will be two votes short in the primary. His son Eric and daughter Ivanka forgot to register as Republicans to vote in the Republican primary.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 11, 2016 17:55:15 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not that it will much matter in total votes for him, but Trump will be two votes short in the primary. His son Eric and daughter Ivanka forgot to register as Republicans to vote in the Republican primary.

too busy shopping and buying plane tickets?

[Wisconsin Beth]

Apr 11, 2016 17:55:15 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not that it will much matter in total votes for him, but Trump will be two votes short in the primary. His son Eric and daughter Ivanka forgot to register as Republicans to vote in the Republican primary.

I heard that too. Did they forget to switch parties or did they not register at all?

[Tennesseer]

Apr 11, 2016 18:00:38 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

Apr 11, 2016 17:55:15 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not that it will much matter in total votes for him, but Trump will be two votes short in the primary. His son Eric and daughter Ivanka forgot to register as Republicans to vote in the Republican primary.

I heard that too. Did they forget to switch parties or did they not register at all?

It appears they were not registered with any party.

www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/donald-trump-children-forgot-register-vote-article-1.2596251

[djAdvocate]

just to be clear on this- i have been really SURPRISED by the fact that Trump is holding on to NY.  i guess there is a bit of Home Rule going on, here.  but, that 30+% lead has been INCREDIBLY stable for him.

and yes, i have been to Upstate, so i know what that is like. 

[Tennesseer]

Apr 11, 2016 17:57:35 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 11, 2016 17:55:15 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not that it will much matter in total votes for him, but Trump will be two votes short in the primary. His son Eric and daughter Ivanka forgot to register as Republicans to vote in the Republican primary.

too busy shopping and buying plane tickets?

Both are in their early thirties. Have they never votedat all?

[lynnerself]

I think I read you can vote in the general election without being registered with either party, but not in the primaries.

[Deleted]

Apr 11, 2016 19:00:58 GMT -5 lynnerself said:

I think I read you can vote in the general election without being registered with either party, but not in the primaries.

That is my understanding as well.  NY is a closed primary and if you were already a registered voter, party affiliation changes had to be done by October of 2015.  New voter registrations had until March 2016.  

[bean29]

Maybe they consider themselves independents. That's a pretty strict deadline...apparently they didn't anticipate he would get this far?

I don't think I have a party affiliation-I consider myself an independent.

[djAdvocate]

the latest Sienna poll shows Kasich and Sanders up in NY, but probably not enough to impact the outcome.

Trump is ahead by 23
Clinton is ahead by 10

edit: the new Monmouth Poll shows Trump and Clinton WIDENING their lead in Maryland.  it seems like this is how it is has gone all campaign- just when you think that Trump and Clinton are going down, they improve their standing somewhere else, and they remain the front runners.

[djAdvocate]

so, as of right now, Kasich looks pretty certain to get over 20% in NY and get SOME delegates.
Cruz is still struggling.  i don't know if he is going to break 20% or not.

failure to break 20% in a state like NY would be bad for Cruz's campaign, and would give Kasich more reason to stay in, particularly through April 26th, where his prospects are "best" for the primary.

if EITHER candidate is kept below 20%, that would be very good for Trump.  i think it is extremely unlikely that Trump will keep BOTH candidates below 20%, at this point.  that would mean SOME delegate dividing, which is probably trouble for Trump.  however, if he really kills it in PA, that may get him back to where he needs to be.  the polling is very good for him there, and he might make up the difference by doing better than expected, there.

edit: i just noticed something about the delegate allocation rules.  the third place candidate gets NO DELEGATES.  that means that Cruz could get GOOSE-EGGED in NY.  the second place candidate gets 1/3 of the delegates if he gets over 20%, and the first place candidate gets less than 50%.  so, really, the key for Kasich is to get Trump below 50% in "many" districts.  i can't say that i am all that optimistic about that strategy, today.

Trump looks well position to do extremely well in NY.

[Value Buy]

Apr 13, 2016 12:32:19 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

so, as of right now, Kasich looks pretty certain to get over 20% in NY and get SOME delegates.
Cruz is still struggling.  i don't know if he is going to break 20% or not.

failure to break 20% in a state like NY would be bad for Cruz's campaign, and would give Kasich more reason to stay in, particularly through April 26th, where his prospects are "best" for the primary.

if EITHER candidate is kept below 20%, that would be very good for Trump.  i think it is extremely unlikely that Trump will keep BOTH candidates below 20%, at this point.  that would mean SOME delegate dividing, which is probably trouble for Trump.  however, if he really kills it in PA, that may get him back to where he needs to be.  the polling is very good for him there, and he might make up the difference by doing better than expected, there.

edit: i just noticed something about the delegate allocation rules.  the third place candidate gets NO DELEGATES.  that means that Cruz could get GOOSE-EGGED in NY.  the second place candidate gets 1/3 of the delegates if he gets over 20%, and the first place candidate gets less than 50%.  so, really, the key for Kasich is to get Trump below 50% in "many" districts.  i can't say that i am all that optimistic about that strategy, today.

Trump looks well position to do extremely well in NY.

Although I will not be around much for awhile, I have to admit I like your assumption of NY and Pennsylvania, and now Maryland. Trump should make up his deficit in delegate counts here.
I am beginning to worry about California.
Cruz is spending time there, RIGHT NOW, while Trump is staying east to hold the fort down and garner strong wins there.
Cruz may chip away some Trump support in California, and Trump needs a strong win there, to nail the nomination.

Interesting interview on MSNBC this morning.
A man discussing the Republican nomination process involved in the Republican convention voting process. He stated to the interviewers, if Trump has over 1100 delegates on first vote, the convention will nominate him on second or third ballot. No discussion that he had to be close to the 1237 or even 1200. He said the count below 1,100 vote level would be the game changer allowing an open convention where Trump could be ousted.
MSNBC interviewers were floored at the remark.

[djAdvocate]

there is even more polling data in, and it is very steady at Trump +30% in NY, and winning almost all of the 95 delegates, Kasich cleaning up the scraps.  Trump widens his lead, but remains about 50 delegates below target to prevent a brokered convention.

Trump has lost approximately 1% in NY in the last 2 weeks.

on the Democratic side, the race is also quite steady.  Clinton holds a double digit lead.  Clinton's lead is widening because Sander's numbers have DROPPED about 3% in the last two weeks.  i think he loses the state pretty significantly, and Clinton widens her lead.

on the GOP side:

Pennsylvania is starting to look like a Trump blowout, and if that happens, it is very bad news for BOTH Kasich and Cruz.  this might be a good time for those two to start working together.

Maryland is also looking good for Trump.

on the Democratic side:

Clinton is leading both those states by double figures.

recap/summary

so, it looks to me like by the end of April 26th, Trump will be closer to where he needs to be to win the nomination outright.  it is possible that he will be ahead of his target.  NOTE: even if this happens, however, the bottom half of the schedule favors Cruz and Kasich.  it will STILL be very hard for Trump to win the nomination outright, unless he can convince those voters based on his showing over the next 10 days, that he earned the nomination.

Clinton's objective for the remainder of the calendar is not to CRUSH Sanders- but keep even with him- and that is consistent with her national poll numbers.  her target through the 26th is 315 delegates, which would give her just over 1600 pledged delegates on April 27th.  if the polling is accurate, she will beat that.

[billisonboard]

Apr 13, 2016 14:32:18 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

...
A man discussing the Republican nomination process involved in the Republican convention voting process. He stated to the interviewers, if Trump has over 1100 delegates on first vote, the convention will nominate him on second or third ballot. No discussion that he had to be close to the 1237 or even 1200. He said the count below 1,100 vote level would be the game changer allowing an open convention where Trump could be ousted.
MSNBC interviewers were floored at the remark.

you do realize that this is simply the opinion of "a man" and not a statement of truth chiseled on a stone tablet I hope.

[djAdvocate]

nothing has changed in the polling in the last week on the GOP side.  the real battle for Trump is to win over 50%.  if he does, it will be a YUGE victory for him.

on the Democratic side, Sanders is insisting he is going to win, even though no poll shows him closer than -6.  i think he pretty much HAS to be right if he is still hoping to win the nomination.  but maybe he knows something that everyone else doesn't know.

[mroped]

Apr 11, 2016 17:57:35 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 11, 2016 17:55:15 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not that it will much matter in total votes for him, but Trump will be two votes short in the primary. His son Eric and daughter Ivanka forgot to register as Republicans to vote in the Republican primary.

too busy shopping and buying plane tickets?

They were looking for cheap fares to countries where they would move if their father becomes president!

[Value Buy]

Trump is singing,

New York, New York,

Cruz is asking himself about New York values...............

[djAdvocate]

it looks like Trump and Hillary both win over 50% of the vote tonight, which is a YUGE victory for both.

the exit polling is interesting on the GOP side- by a 2:1 margin, Republicans felt that Trump was the most likely to beat Hillary, even though the (national) polling has consistently shown the opposite.

this sets up April 26th really well for both candidates.  i will await the final results before adding further comment, but they are both to be congratulated.

[Tennesseer]

Apr 19, 2016 9:21:49 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Trump is singing,

New York, New York,

Cruz is asking himself about New York values...............

It appears NY's reply to Cruz for his values comment is 'va fangul'.

[djAdvocate]

the polling was pretty accurate on this one.

the polling average was +12 for Clinton, and she won by 15.
the polling average was +30 for Trump, and he won by 35.

Trump and Clinton are now in a COMMANDING position for next week, when about 10% of the Democratic delegates and 7% of the GOP delegates come home to roost.  neither will wrap up the nomination any time soon, but they are becoming the heavy favourites to do so (barring some unforseen disaster for either of them).

[tallguy]

Interesting that Cruz is dismissing this result as nothing more than "a politician winning his home state."  Uhh, Ted?  Trump beat you in his home state by 46% while you beat him in yours by 17%.  And, oh yeah, he got 38 delegates in your home state.  You got ZERO in his.  Dismiss THAT, m*****f*****! 

[djAdvocate]

Apr 20, 2016 0:30:34 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Interesting that Cruz is dismissing this result as nothing more than "a politician winning his home state."  Uhh, Ted?  Trump beat you in his home state by 46% while you beat him in yours by 17%.  And, oh yeah, he got 38 delegates in your home state.  You got ZERO in his.  Dismiss THAT, m*****f*****! 

yeah, it was a miserable night for Cruz.  the easiest way for him to brush it off is the way Rubio did- to say that he never expected to do well there.  but the truth is that it should have been Cruz that came in 2nd, if he wants to vie for the nomination.

i think this primary sunk Sander's ship, too, but he is doing his best to brush it off as a home win for Clinton.  i don't know if that will work, but it is a decent strategy.  it would be better if he had lost by less than 10, rather than 16.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 20, 2016 10:46:01 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

It's a decent strategy for Sanders, but unfortunately for Bernie you can hear his accent al the way from Montpelier to Brooklyn.

As for Cruz, couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.  How are those for East Coast values Ted?>?? 

there are little things that doom a campaign.  that was one of them.

[tallguy]

Yeah, but Teddy is truly gifted.  He can offend people far and wide without even opening his mouth!

[Virgil Showlion]

The dog and pony show continues, I see.

The question is: which one is the dog, and which one is the pony?

[tallguy]

Apr 20, 2016 19:24:47 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

The dog and pony show continues, I see.

The question is: which one is the dog, and which one is the pony?

Well, if you believe Trump about his womanizing he must be the dog.  And Cruz is definitely a (one-trick) pony.

[Opti]

[djAdvocate]

it looks like Clinton and Trump run the table tomorrow.  the possible exception is RI, where Sanders is running well.

Trump's target is basically 1000 tomorrow, which means he needs to win 150.  he might just get it.  he might not.
Clinton's target tomorrow is 1500, which means she needs to win 100.  she will probably get that in PA.

don't you love it?  the two least liked candidates are heading toward victory.

that was sarcastic.

[djAdvocate]

i was just thinking to myself how much this "set up" reminds me of Super Tuesday: the day everyone started taking Trump seriously, and stopped taking Sanders seriously.