Global Warming!

[OldCoyote]

Here is my question,  Here in Phoenix, the weather service is telling us that it's going to be another record Month.  Of course it is caused by Climate change.

Searching for old weather station history is difficult at least for Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport.

Here is what I found,  It is out of 1950.


weatherspark.com/history/31259/1950/Phoenix-Arizona-United-States  

In 1950, the airport was surrounded miles of shrublands 85%,  Croplands 5%,  Forest 4%, Grasslands 2%,  and  builtup at 3%.

Today that same airport is completely surrounded by the city.  we have so many runway, taxiways, it seems the ground is covered with concrete.

We have huge concrete terminal buildings,  Every side of the airport is covered with Streets and freeways.

Here is my point,  all of this concrete and asphalt is a great heat sink.  So how do we accurately compare the temperatures from say the 1950 when the airport was surrounded with greenery  (Not a heat sink). 

With today when it is completely surrounded with a huge heat sink??

[weltschmerz]

You DO know that Phoenix isn't the whole world, right? That's what "global" means.

[OldCoyote]

We have not had any population growth in the rest of the world?

[tractor]

I have heard this before, many of the temperature benchmark locations were placed in areas without much development back in the 1950's, now those areas are surrounded by miles of hard surfaces. The recorded temperatures are bound to increase due to the heat sink effect. It's been too long and I don't have a reference. OTOH, our weather patterns seem to be getting more severe than even 20 years ago, something is changing.

[happyhoix]

Oct 22, 2015 8:36:07 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

We have not had any population growth in the rest of the world?

Most of the world is water or ice cap.

Also if you look at the total state of Arizona and calculate the ratio between the natural areas/agricultural areas now vs the areas that are asphalt and concrete and compare the 2015 ratio with the 1950 ratio you would find that it was somewhat more asphalt/concrete present in the state, but not enough to show a big change in the overall ratio.

Possibly if there was only the one thermometer at the airport recording temperatures from 1950 to today, you could argue that the surrounding area may be acting as a heat sink and causing the airport temps to register a little higher, but most urban areas have lots of different data stations over a wide area, and I'm assuming they are all showing higher than average temps.

However - I agree with you that it's too simple to say this heat spell is caused by Global climate change. Areas have droughts, and heat spells, and cold spells, and hard winters or mild ones. You can't say that this particular heat wave is due to climate change. What you can do is look at overall trends, through the decades, and determine whether data from the whole world is indicating that there are changes happening in the usual seasonal patterns.  Average daily temperatures increasing, average rainfall totals increasing or decreasing, etc.

[OldCoyote]

What start this with me was the National Weather Service guy said that the month did not break the record, it broke the record for the temperature at 2:00 in the morning.

Because of Climate change.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 21, 2015 23:07:06 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

Here is my question,  Here in Phoenix, the weather service is telling us that it's going to be another record Month.  Of course it is caused by Climate change.

Searching for old weather station history is difficult at least for Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport.

Here is what I found,  It is out of 1950.


weatherspark.com/history/31259/1950/Phoenix-Arizona-United-States  

In 1950, the airport was surrounded miles of shrublands 85%,  Croplands 5%,  Forest 4%, Grasslands 2%,  and  builtup at 3%.

Today that same airport is completely surrounded by the city.  we have so many runway, taxiways, it seems the ground is covered with concrete.

We have huge concrete terminal buildings,  Every side of the airport is covered with Streets and freeways.

Here is my point,  all of this concrete and asphalt is a great heat sink.  So how do we accurately compare the temperatures from say the 1950 when the airport was surrounded with greenery  (Not a heat sink). 

With today when it is completely surrounded with a huge heat sink??

the weather in Phoenix has little or nothing to do with climate change.

you're welcome.

[weltschmerz]

The OCEANS are getting warmer. Heat sinks from asphalt?

The FAR  NORTH is getting warner. Heat sinks from asphalt?

Yep, must be all the concrete in Phoenix to blame.

[Deleted]

Oct 21, 2015 23:21:26 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

You DO know that Phoenix isn't the whole world, right? That's what "global" means.

NOAA is predicting that 2015 is on track to be the warmest on record and yet... 
2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA's updated 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that a below-normal hurricane season is very likely. The outlook calls for a 90% chance of a below-normal season and a 10% chance of a near-normal season, with no realistic expectation that the season will be above-normal. This 90% probability of a below-normal season is the highest given by NOAA for any such season since their seasonal hurricane outlooks began in August 1998. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

The main difference between this updated outlook and the pre-season outlook issued 27 May is that there is now an even higher chance of a below-normal season (90% compared to 70%), along with lower chances of a near-normal (10% compared to 20%) or an above-normal (negligible compared to 10%) season. www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCoQFjABahUKEwjuybz329bIAhWDhQ0KHf9EDtY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Foutlooks%2Fhurricane.shtml&usg=AFQjCNGcJDXbvKzbRQD24U4Z3JDHJKkx0g  I don't know how many times I've read the fear mongering about more hurricanes caused by global warming.  What gives ?  2014 was also a very warm year globally.  No exceptional hurricanes or count last year either...  Some years ago alarmist climate scientists, who insist a consensus backs their science, claimed with high certainty that global warming would increase the frequency and intensity of cyclones globally. We were told to expect “super-charged storms”, all fueled by global warming heat.

Read more: www.climatedepot.com/2015/09/10/global-hurricane-energy-at-45-year-low/#ixzz3pKDE1LkF   www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCUQFjABahUKEwjO2cel4dbIAhXBRyYKHWmzCHE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.climatedepot.com%2F2015%2F09%2F10%2Fglobal-hurricane-energy-at-45-year-low%2F&usg=AFQjCNF4i-d-4apdqVDJEVWzNTxFC-siYQ&bvm=bv.105814755,d.eWE

[weltschmerz]

We DID get "supercharged" storms.  Supercharged rainstorms, where a months worth of rain would fall in 24 hours, causing massive flooding. Supercharged snowstorms in the Northeast, virtually burying the NE and the Maritimes in record amounts of snow. Supercharged droughts in other places.

Climate change doesn't just deal with hurricanes, or just with Phoenix.

Ever hear of the Northwest Passage? Why do you think there's so much brouhaha over it now? You can finally navigate it, and everyone wants a piece of the action.

[happyhoix]

Hurricanes aren't the only weather events that can be supersized - the El Nino this year is predicted to be the hottest in 50 years, which means Asia might see a spike in dengue fever and a record warm winter in Canada.

www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/higher_temperatures_strong_el_nino_influence_dengue_fever_outbreaks_southeast_asia_study_research/53093273

Here is a chart showing the rising temps of the El Nino periods over the years.

www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/are-el-nino-years-getting-warm/52604458 

[djAdvocate]

California's drought is predicted to come to a crashing halt, as well.

[Deleted]

And not one word about reduced hurricane energy. 

[fairlycrazy23]

I do think there are issues with a lot of the earth stations because of urban heat effects,they are supposed to be factored in, but I think that opens up too much manipulation of the data, good or bad. Satellite temperature data is the way to go.

[wyouser]

See....they made that film back in the day...."Concrete Jungle"....Climate change did that too. Me, I'm loading up on Husky's and dog sleds. Climate change will usher in the next ice age too.........

[verrip1]

Oct 21, 2015 23:07:06 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

Here is my question,  Here in Phoenix, the weather service is telling us that it's going to be another record Month.  Of course it is caused by Climate change.

Searching for old weather station history is difficult at least for Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport.

Here is what I found,  It is out of 1950.


weatherspark.com/history/31259/1950/Phoenix-Arizona-United-States  

In 1950, the airport was surrounded miles of shrublands 85%,  Croplands 5%,  Forest 4%, Grasslands 2%,  and  builtup at 3%.

Today that same airport is completely surrounded by the city.  we have so many runway, taxiways, it seems the ground is covered with concrete.

We have huge concrete terminal buildings,  Every side of the airport is covered with Streets and freeways.

Here is my point,  all of this concrete and asphalt is a great heat sink.  So how do we accurately compare the temperatures from say the 1950 when the airport was surrounded with greenery  (Not a heat sink). 

With today when it is completely surrounded with a huge heat sink??

As already noted, the comparability of historical temperature data at one point source doesn't have a significant impact on understanding the total climate of the world.  But Phoenix is not alone in this heat sink effect, so the cumulative effects might have some significance.  I would be surprised if there have not been studies of the worldwide implications of this phenomenon.  But things surprise me all the time.  It doesn't strike me that this heat sink effect by itself is some sort of major new finding that severely undermines the basis for worrying about either global warming (GW) or anthropogenic climate change (ACC).  Its just another part of the analysis, but I don't see that the analysis is important now.

I suppose GW/ACC discussions are still good message board fodder.  But sociologically, it doesn't matter any more.  CO2 is a USEPA hazardous air pollutant, governments all around the world are working on carbon emission limits, there exists a financial market for carbon trading, and even energy companies are taking steps to reduce emissions as a matter of voluntary policy rather than regulation. 

It no longer matters what the data says or what the scientific conclusions are except to academics.  GW/ACC are gigantic public relations successes, and that's undeniable.

[verrip1]

Oct 22, 2015 17:01:26 GMT -5 wyouser said:

See....they made that film back in the day...."Concrete Jungle"....Climate change did that too. Me, I'm loading up on Husky's and dog sleds. Climate change will usher in the next ice age too.........

That wasn't even in the same league as "The Asphalt Jungle".  Sterling Hayden at his best.  Jean Hagen's best part ever IMO.  Sam Jaffe, the meistercrook whose baser instincts overcame his intellect leading to his downfall.  Louis Calhern with the same basic failure as Jaffe's character, but with an evil side that made Jaffe look like a good guy (though both were crooks).  It's a film noir classic.

[Ombud]

Oct 22, 2015 14:37:13 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

California's drought is predicted to come to a crashing halt, as well.

I wish!! It would take several yrs of record rainfall to replenish the aquafirs

[Tennesseer]

California needs snow in its mountains, lots of it, over a period of a few years, and not just rain to end its drought.  Hope for snow..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oct 22, 2015 17:46:21 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

I suppose GW/ACC discussions are still good message board fodder. But sociologically, it doesn't matter any more. CO2 is a USEPA hazardous air pollutant, governments all around the world are working on carbon emission limits, there exists a financial market for carbon trading, and even energy companies are taking steps to reduce emissions as a matter of voluntary policy rather than regulation.

It no longer matters what the data says or what the scientific conclusions are except to academics. GW/ACC are gigantic public relations successes, and that's undeniable.

Truer words have never been spoken about this "debate."

[weltschmerz]

Oh, I like The Sheepdogs. They're so retro.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Hometown boys! I swear the Saskatoon music scene is set to explode.

[happyhoix]

Oct 22, 2015 15:05:06 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

And not one word about reduced hurricane energy. 

Here you go, Hurricane Patricia, Category 5 hurricane, expected to be the strongest hurricane ever measured, expected to hit (and flatten) the Mexican coastline.

www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-patricia-strongest-storm-ever-measured-hit-mexico-n449731

Of course, this is just ONE measly hurricane of this hurricane season, and not ALL the hurricanes are category fives, so obviously, this disproves completely the whole global climate change thing. 

   

[OldCoyote]

Of course, this is just ONE measly hurricane of this hurricane season, and not ALL the hurricanes are category fives, so obviously, this disproves completely the whole global climate change thing.  

It is good to see that you have come around to my way of thinking,   Wait a minute, you were not joking with me,  were you??

[Tennesseer]

My understanding is during El Nino years, eastern Pacific hurricanes explode while western Atlantic hurricanes are few.

Seems to me, this is the case this year with a strong El Nino this fall and winter.  Article below is from 2014.

Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season

[OldCoyote]

What! I have not convinced you yet?

[djAdvocate]

Oct 22, 2015 20:39:34 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Oct 22, 2015 14:37:13 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

California's drought is predicted to come to a crashing halt, as well.

I wish!! It would take several yrs of record rainfall to replenish the aquafirs

the drought ends when we get back to average or above average rainfalls.

replenishment is a separate issue.  and yes, it will take a while.

[Ombud]

No rain on the horizon so hoping that thought of it ending isn't just wishful thinking (our H2O is primarily snowpack runoff)

[verrip1]

Oct 23, 2015 8:43:48 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

I don't spend my time delving into the whys and wherefores of the climate "debate". Outside of the US this is not even a debate. In the US it is really only a debate outside of the scientific community as the overwhelming majority of scientists agree with the basic premise.

A worthwhile topic for debate may be just what will the effects of climate change be.  Unfortunately, this is something that I don't have enough knowledge to really comment on.

Another one may be what (if anything) we want to do- as individuals, communities, countries and globally to deal with it.  This is one I think anyone can contribute to, to a greater or lesser extent.

To keep arguing the premise- I mean, why don't we argue whether the sun will set tonight?  It's up now, I really don't see it moving.

Because you'll get just as far (that is, nowhere) arguing with a True Believer as with a True Denier.  Both see the issue as fully decided by Higher Authorities. 

As you say, this is not even a debate.  However, you forgot to include the qualifier, "... if you believe".

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2015 7:33:35 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Oct 22, 2015 15:05:06 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

And not one word about reduced hurricane energy. 

Here you go, Hurricane Patricia, Category 5 hurricane, expected to be the strongest hurricane ever measured, expected to hit (and flatten) the Mexican coastline.

www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-patricia-strongest-storm-ever-measured-hit-mexico-n449731

Of course, this is just ONE measly hurricane of this hurricane season, and not ALL the hurricanes are category fives, so obviously, this disproves completely the whole global climate change thing. 

   

Aren't you the one who continually says a weather event is not climate change.  That standard applies to alarmists too.  Or does fear mongering get it's own standard.  The global Accumulated Cyclone Energy index shows that the last four years are at a 45 year low.  The chart is in my second link on the previous post stating my point (#8).  If you don't know what the ACE index is, it can be searched on google.