Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Viva La Revolucion!
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 14, 2016 21:38:25 GMT -5
"Ethics is the only way build sustainable economic growth" ---------------
And commercial banking is un-ethical.
It is unethical for special interest groups to have preferential, indeed a crony self-serving privilege, i.e., sovereign right, to profit from the creation of the publics’ legal tender.
As Willie Sutton said: his reason for robbing banks is 'That's where the money is'
The great German poet and playwright Bertolt Brecht would have agreed and once said it was "easier to rob by setting up a bank than by holding up (one)."
Thomas Jefferson's my favorite:
"I sincerely believe the banking institutions having the issuing power of money are more dangerous to liberty than standing armies."
Zerohedge: "according to Levin, who knows the Fed's operating structure intimately, says the members of the regional Fed bank boards of directors, the majority of whom are selected by the private banks with the approval of the Washington-based governors, should be chosen differently. The professor says director slots now reserved for financial professionals regulated by the Fed should be eliminated, and that directors who oversee and advise the regional banks should be selected in a public process involving the Washington governors and local elected officials. These directors also should better represent the diversity of the U.S." "Levin also wants formal public input into the selection of new bank presidents, with candidates’ names known publicly and a process that allows for public comment in a way that doesn’t now exist. The professor also wants all Fed officials to serve for single seven-year terms, which would give them the needed distance from the political process while eliminating situations where some policy makers stay at the bank for decades. Alan Greenspan, for example, was Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006." "As the WSJ conveniently adds, the selection of regional bank presidents has become a hot-button issue. Currently, the leaders of the New York, Philadelphia, Dallas and Minneapolis Fed banks are helmed by men who formerly worked for or had close connections to investment bank Goldman Sachs"
I would love to see the govt melt away to a shell of what it is now, and have the banks boards elected. As long as they couldn't raise money to campaign and had credentials. The last thing we need is more of the circus that are US elections; imagine what Jefferson and other's would say about the debacle that is Washington now. Further, I could make the argument that essentially everything has um-ethical elements. The reason being that it's the people running the institutions that are un-ethical, not the institutions or the system itself. "Hell Bent for Election" by, Paul Warburg 1935 was a good foreshadow to what is going on now. However, I think, Neil Peart and Peter Talbot said it best: And the men who hold high places Must be the ones who start To mold a new reality Closer to the heart, closer to the heart The blacksmith and the artist Reflect it in their art They forge their creativity Closer to the heart, yes closer to the heart Philosophers and ploughmen Each must know his part To sow a new mentality Closer to the heart, well closer to the heart You can be the captain And I will draw the chart Sailing into destiny Closer to the heart, yes closer to the heart
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Apr 25, 2016 11:05:51 GMT -5
Great poem.
New housing starts peaked in Jan 2006 and bottomed in April 2009, i.e., one month before money flows, M*Vt, started falling and one month after money flows started rising - Alan S. Blinder “After the Music Stopped,”
The GR was all about Irving Fisher's pro-rata share of the "price-level".
The 1966 S&L credit crunch paradigm as examined by looking at the differences between money and liquid assets:
(1) MMMF’s, of course, use M1 in their transactions (the NBs are the CB’s customers and all the NB’s payments clear thru the member bank’s payment, clearing and settlement system). Their liabilities are not, and should not, be a part of M1 or M2. Their existence undoubtedly increases the rate at which savings are invested. The higher interest rates paid provide an adequate inducement to savers to minimize commercial bank demand deposits. These efforts do not reduce the aggregate volume of demand deposits, but do increase the transactions velocity, Vt, of these deposits.
(2) MMDA’S reduce velocity and effective monetary demand, or AD. The interest-bearing character of the deposits results in the larger proportion of commercial bank deposits in the interest-bearing category. They are an excellent device for the banking system to reduce its aggregate profits. The analysis here is basically the same as for time deposits. It is hard for the average person to believe that banks do not loan out savings or existing deposits – demand time, or MMDA’s. The banks always create the money by making loans to, or buying securities from the non-bank public.
This results in a double-bind for the Fed. If it pursues a rather restrictive monetary policy, interest rates tend to rise. This places a damper on the creation of new money but, paradoxically drives existing money out of circulation into the stagnant savings deposits. In a twinkling, the economy begins to suffer.
Quantitative easing, when excess reserves are remunerated, instead of lowering long-term rates to stimulate spending, LSAP operations which targeted segmented classes of securities, raised rates. QE had the effect of impounded savings within the CBs during QE operations and thus raised rates – which then fell afterwards. The diagnosis is non-bank dis-intermediation (a reversal in the desired functional savings-investment process).
See:
bit.ly/1YFaKAq
Does QE Lower or Raise Interest Rates: the Evidence
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on May 14, 2016 12:55:46 GMT -5
The deceleration in real-output since the GR is due to a confluence of factors - though largely because the savings-investment process has been shifted into reverse. The non-banks are being destroyed by an increase in FDIC insurance (from $100,000 to $250,000), and from paying interest on excess reserve balances (which induces non-bank dis-intermediation), and from the DIDMCA of March 31st 1980 (which eliminated non-bank insured deposits).
Money velocity for the last 35 years is being destroyed as a result of the increased impounding of savings within the CBs (the CBs do not loan out existing deposits, saved or otherwise), which the DIDMCA vastly accelerated.
Time deposits….demand deposits:
1939........15~~~~~ 33 1954........47~~~~~ 121 1964......126~~~~~ 156 1974......421~~~~~ 274 1979......676~~~~~ 401 1986...1,215~~~~~ 491 1996...1,271~~~~~ 420 2006...3,696~~~~~ 317 2016...8,222~~~~1,233
The ratio of TD/DD in 1939 = 0.45 The ratio of TD/DD in 2016 = 6.67
--------------------
Economic prognostications within 1 year are actually infallible (unbeknownst to Bankrupt U Bernanke and the 300 Ph.Ds. on the Fed's research staff - including gDpNOW Atlanta Fed). bit.ly/1KXzawv
Monetary policy objectives should be formulated in terms of desired rates-of-change, roc's, in monetary flows, M*Vt (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), relative to roc's in R-gDp.
Roc's in N-gDp (though "raw materials, intermediate goods and labor costs, which comprise the bulk of business spending are not treated in N-gDp"), can serve as a proxy figure for roc's in all transactions, P*T, in Professor Irving Fisher's truistic "equation of exchange".
Roc's in R-gDp have to be used, of course, as a policy standard. This is inviolate and sacrosanct. It has been true for over 100 years. I’m not teaching economics, I’m teaching human nature (where naysayers are always considered omniscient).
parse, dt., R-gDp, inflation, bond proxy
01/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.07 ,,,,, 0.20 ,,,,, 0.28 02/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.02 ,,,,, 0.16 ,,,,, 0.27 03/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.13 ,,,,, 0.26 04/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.15 ,,,,, 0.25 05/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.03 ,,,,, 0.17 ,,,,, 0.24 06/1/2015 ,,,,, 0.06 ,,,,, 0.13 ,,,,, 0.23 07/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.07 ,,,,, 0.11 ,,,,, 0.22 08/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.07 ,,,,, 0.15 ,,,,, 0.22 09/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.05 ,,,,, 0.13 ,,,,, 0.21 10/1/2016 ,,,,, -0.01,,,,, 0.11 ,,,,, 0.21 11/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.11 ,,,,, 0.20 12/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.19
So we can surmise that after May (after stocks fall - if they are not decoupled from growth), the economy picks up slightly (but continues at subpar economic growth rates). Oil and other commodities should be headed for a fall - until July.
My equation is the Gospel. It is worth trillions of economic dollars. It should be classified as "top secret" by the CIA (it is an economic weapon). My equation proves that since the Great Depression all boom/busts were entirely the Fed's fault (including the GR).
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on May 20, 2016 12:25:20 GMT -5
Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates: Date 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr
05/02/16 0.11 0.22 0.41 0.55 0.80 0.96 1.32 1.64 1.88 2.31 2.71 05/03/16 0.18 0.21 0.40 0.53 0.75 0.92 1.25 1.57 1.81 2.24 2.66 05/04/16 0.18 0.19 0.39 0.52 0.75 0.89 1.23 1.55 1.79 2.22 2.64 05/05/16 0.20 0.20 0.39 0.51 0.72 0.87 1.20 1.52 1.76 2.17 2.60 05/06/16 0.20 0.19 0.39 0.51 0.74 0.90 1.23 1.55 1.79 2.20 2.62 05/09/16 0.21 0.24 0.38 0.51 0.72 0.86 1.20 1.51 1.77 2.18 2.61 05/10/16 0.25 0.24 0.36 0.52 0.72 0.88 1.20 1.52 1.77 2.18 2.61 05/11/16 0.25 0.26 0.37 0.53 0.74 0.87 1.20 1.51 1.73 2.15 2.58 05/12/16 0.25 0.27 0.37 0.54 0.76 0.92 1.24 1.54 1.75 2.18 2.60 05/13/16 0.25 0.29 0.38 0.55 0.76 0.91 1.22 1.51 1.71 2.14 2.55 05/16/16 0.21 0.28 0.38 0.57 0.79 0.94 1.26 1.55 1.75 2.18 2.59 05/17/16 0.25 0.28 0.40 0.58 0.82 0.97 1.29 1.57 1.76 2.18 2.59 05/18/16 0.25 0.30 0.43 0.63 0.90 1.08 1.41 1.69 1.87 2.27 2.67 05/19/16 0.25 0.31 0.43 0.64 0.89 1.06 1.38 1.67 1.85 2.24 2.64
tinyurl.com/hh6...
"the fed follows the market"
bit.ly/N3MOau
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on May 24, 2016 10:51:28 GMT -5
Greenspan's greatest error:
24 FFR policy reductions from 6/5/1989 until 9/4/1992 to “prime-the-pump” (via the Fed’s interest rate transmission mechanism) - only 8 during the recession. All this to counter the S&L crisis predicted in June 1980. And no increases until 2/4/1994 (prima facie evidence that money was “tight” as indicated by the unemployment reaching almost 8% as late as June 1992. (along with negligible net free or net borrowed reserve positions). I.e., the Fed’s monetary transmission mechanism is non sequitur.
Senator Nancy Landon Kassebaum; responding to my letter in 11/4/81: “Today, less than two years since the DIDMCA was established, most of the liabilities have been deregulated with no change in the asset structure that would enable payment of higher rates to depositors”. The S&L crisis of the late 80's and early 90's was no happenstance.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on May 26, 2016 16:17:35 GMT -5
I.e., a $13b drop in required reserves translated into only 1 billion dollars in excess reserve balances (and confined to one economic quarter). I.e., Greenspan's tightened monetary policy when the economy was in a recession (aka shades of the GR and Bankrupt U Bernanke).
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on May 26, 2016 16:19:20 GMT -5
The top in the oil market should be in or very close to it (May). The next speculative (opportunistic) play is to short commodities at Nov month-end (one month downswing). Dec could mark a temporary bottom in commodity cycles.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jun 21, 2016 10:43:20 GMT -5
Nov-end bond and commodity play this year. Buy bonds and sell commodities for about 3 weeks.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 9, 2016 9:37:50 GMT -5
Gresham’s law is a statement of the “principle of substitution” as applied to money: that a commodity (or service) will be devoted to those uses which are the most profitable. That it is one of the paradoxes of money, that the bad drives out the good. And, the more valuable money, is held as a “store of value” and the less valuable, will be used as a “medium of exchange”. Alfred Marshall’s “cash-balances” approach is complementary, viz., all motives which induce the holding of a larger amount of money will tend to increase the demand for money – and reduce its velocity (which requires a differentiation between ex ante expectations and ex post realizations).
Interest is the price of loan-funds, not the price of money (as the FRB-NY’s “trading desk” operations has assumed c. 1965). The price of money is the reciprocal of the price-level. Therefore Keynes’ liquidity preference curve (demand for money) is a false doctrine.
I.e., the “demand for money” should not be confused with the “demand for loan-funds”. The demand for loan-funds is not a demand for money, per se, but a demand which reflects the advantages of spending borrowed money. And the equilibrium effect will never be reached if new and disturbing factors are continually being introduced.
The GR, etc., introduced:
(1) a world-wide “flight-to-safety” and to “safe-assets” (2) a flight to Sheila Bair’s “unlimited” FDIC transaction deposits (3) an increase in the money stock of the preferred funding currency in the “carry trade” (4) a self-reinforcing, “safety-net” boost in a national currencies’ exchange rate (5) massive debt monetization thru sterilization (reducing the demand for loan-funds) (6) a reduction in money velocity by the destruction of non-bank lending/investing (7) a reduction in money velocity due to the further impounding of savings in the CBs (8) increases in bad debt associated with a higher proportion of CB financing vs. NB financing (9) countercyclical increases in bank capital (10) the long-term corrosive impact in the demand for capital goods and thus inevitably CapEx
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 9, 2016 9:40:37 GMT -5
Rates-of-change in monetary flows, M*Vt, or our means-of-payment money supply times its transactions rate-of-turnover = roc’s in all transactions in Yale Professor Irving Fisher’s truistic “equation of exchange”: where M*Vt = P*T; and not M*Vi = P*Q (as on Milton Friedman’s license plate). There are 6 seasonal inflection points each year (all within the distributed lag effect of money flows). And these seasonal factors are determined by monetary policy. These seasonal factors are scientific proof that the “Member Bank Reserve Requirements — Analysis of Committee Proposal” published 2/5/1938 was correct.
The 5th seasonal inflection point this year is 7/20/2016. But there is an anomaly this year at Nov. month-end (buy bonds, sell commodities). Inflation crashes for one month in Dec. And then the trajectory for inflation, and the bond proxy, is lower in 2017 than 2016.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 11, 2016 13:31:32 GMT -5
Elliot Wave 5 (the blow off and most speculative move) has begun.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Aug 4, 2016 10:52:37 GMT -5
As Yale Professor Irving Fisher (1920 revised edition): “The Purchasing Power of Money” pontificated: “it all depends on the right index number”. And “The making of index numbers; a study of their varieties, tests, and reliability” by Fisher, Irving, published 1922: “An index number of prices is intended to measure such magnitudes as the price level of one date or place relatively to that of another. It is an average of price relatives." These price relatives (or movements of the prices of individual commodities) usually disperse or scatter widely.”
But the original purpose of index numbers to measure the purchasing power of money will remain a principal, if not the principal, use of index numbers. It is through index numbers that we measure, and thereby realize, changes in the value of money. Whether or not we ever stabilize that value, it is of the greatest importance that we know just how stable or unstable our present money is. - And if, or when, we do regulate and stabilize the moneys of the world, not simply relatively to each other but relatively to goods, it is the index number which will be requisitioned to measure and guide such regulation.”
As we have repeatedly heard from:
bit.ly/nyzRiF
the PCE does not represent our: "basket of goods and services".
In other words, what we are experiencing is stagflation (business stagnation accompanied by inflation), of which QE (when remunerating reserves) is directly responsible for.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Aug 4, 2016 10:57:58 GMT -5
As oil rose, and trade deficits exploded (forcing the $ down and the domestic price-level artificially up), the FOMC remained freakishly hawkish, i.e., just right before the economy crashed (and the GR began). Monetary confusion compounded:
nyfed.org/2aQ73Jc
“The other component of IOR is Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER), which is the interest paid on those balances that are above the level of reserves the DI is required to hold. Paying IOER reduces the incentive for DIs to lend at rates much below IOER, providing the Federal Reserve additional control over the FFER.”
What the Keynesian economists on the Fed’s research staff did, was not: “reducing the incentive…to lend” for the DFIs. No, their policy catastrophically denuded non-banks’ wholesale money market funding. I.e., the 300 Ph.Ds. on the Fed’s technical staff believed Keynes’ “optical illusion” (Gurley-Shaw’s thesis) -- that there’s no difference between money and liquid assets.
Edward Meadows: “Keynes the stock market speculator, the insurance executive, the polemic journalist, the social reformer, the avid book collector, and, it must be reckoned, the devotee of Etonian Culture (as it might be called in a sex advertisement; Professor Harry G. Johnson, once remarking on the homosexuality of King’s College, recalled the professor who referred to the chapel there as First Church of Christ, Sodomite).”
As Jacob Viner (Chicago School), criticized Keynes’s General Theory: “that the determination of the interest rate is “the most vulnerable part of his analysis” and “the possibility that in the short-run phenomena there were inherent forces which tended to produce quite different long-run than short-run consequences”.
It's just like Jacob Viner said: "you (i.e., Keynes, don't belong in this class"
And Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman's influence was pervasive. Friedman at "the Chicago School" in 1932: Friedman “stopped Viner in his calculus and finally went to the blackboard and worked the whole problem out, which Viner was unable to do”…
In Mints’ class “Price and Distribution” Friedman “discovered some of the errors in Keynes’ fundamental equations. Mints wrote Keynes on Friedman’s behalf – & for the class. That Keynes admitted the errors and this gave him, at least in part, the impetus to write the General Theory.”…”Keynes’ subsequent repudiation in the General Theory of those parts of the Treatise on Money grew out of these criticisms.”
This is the source of the pervasive error (and our economic malaise), that characterizes the Keynesian economics: the deregulation of interest rates for just the CBs (the NBs were already unregulated).
See:
www.bing.com/search?q=regulation+q+ceilings&form=IE11TR&src=IE11TR&pc=EUPP_TNJB
The folks running the Fed pay homage to the commercial banks (not Joe Sixpack). When IBDDs are remunerated, QE is shifted into reverse as it induces non-bank dis-intermediation (where the size of the NBs shrink, but the size of the CBs remains unaffected). See: Zoltan Poszar:
"volume of money and money-like claims issued by the shadow banking system has shrunk from a peak of $8 trillion in 2008 to $5 trillion as of the end of 2013"
"As the “shadow banking system”3 shrank, the traditional banking system grew." - Global Money Notes # 1 Credit Suisse
bit.ly/29KmnXC Taken from Zoltan Pozsar, Senior Advisor to the Office of Financial Research, U.S. Treasury
And that explains why interest rates fell after QE operations: bit.ly/1YFaKAq
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Viva La Revolucion!
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Aug 5, 2016 14:35:10 GMT -5
And conversely the traditional banking system in China has stalled while the shadow banking system has exploded, leaving China with a bigger debt problem than any country has ever had.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Aug 6, 2016 10:28:10 GMT -5
"traditional banking system in China has stalled while the shadow banking system has exploded"
Every country should have that "problem", lending by the CBs is inflationary, lending by the NBs is non-inflationary
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Aug 10, 2016 0:52:11 GMT -5
Except the explosion of shadow banking is responsible for the insane increase in housing prices in Hong Kong and the Mainland. This "hot money" has drove prices of homes in Vancouver to the point where income to average payment is on average around 70 to 1 as people in China looked to move their money elsewhere. The other situation where a shadow banking system is inflationary is where it also was printing currency. You end up like a situation in England in the 1700's where so many people are printing their own currency prices go completely out of control and the CB ends up buying tons of "currency" to stabilize the broader economy. Seems to me North America proves, single steady currencies within a country+small amounts of inflation lead by wage increase leads(=) to economic success. Greed, corruption, extortion of this process leads to imbalances and failure. Solution...... Ethics.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Aug 11, 2016 14:37:28 GMT -5
Shadow bank lending is non-inflationary, i.e., unless all the lending ends up chasing the same product. With shadow banks, savings match earning assets, etc. But the GR had some twists, there was financial engineering which created a world-wide secondary mortgage market along side of Freddie and Fannie (the transitory increase in liquidity of these particular assets enhanced their moneyness quality). Demand side factors are responsible for monetary inflation. There must be an increase in either velocity or money to push up the price-level. Review M1 income velocity. It ran up along side the housing bubble.
The point being that unless savings are expeditiously activated and otherwise put to work, then a dampening economic impact is generated.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Aug 15, 2016 13:02:39 GMT -5
The various income velocity numbers, Vi, published by the FRB-STL on its FRED database, are contrived. They do not represent deposit turnover within our payment's system (how fast money is actually being spent, or the transactions velocity of circulation, Vt, as defined by Yale Professor Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”). The figures represent (1) tabulations for final consumption and income during a specific time period (stock figures), that are simply divided by the (2) various quantities of commercial bank deposit classifications, M1, M2, & MZM (again, accumulated quarterly, i.e., representing a total value, or a stock figure).
In mathematics, a mere fraction (quotient), is not a rate. It is a ratio.
I.e., it is a centuries old lie, contrary to all economic analyses: how one quantity changes in relation to another quantity is not described by income velocity calculations (for either dependent or independent variable).
Absolute figures can't be used for comparisons. Rates-of-change must be calculated for each variable (for both the dividend and the devisor), and these separate and independent results must then be divided to arrive at a "rate-of-change" quotient (i.e., division by 2 distinct formulas).
- Michel de Nostredame
The long-awaited, long-term bottom in the price of a barrel of oil is this December 2016. Sell oil short at Nov. month-end.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Aug 18, 2016 19:43:18 GMT -5
Stocks up until 8/31/2016. Don't expect strong selling until October.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 31, 2016 20:26:06 GMT -5
Flow5, Do you think the Federal Reserve has a clue as to what is going on? In Germany their savings rate is at a record high but Investments a record low. Productivity world wide is not growing. Of the 318 million Americans , we have what for the Presidents JOB. Trust Who? Just a thought, Bruce
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Sept 2, 2016 14:21:36 GMT -5
No Bruce, no one knows what they're doing. In fact, what the pundits are doing is exactly the opposite of what they should be doing. The deceleration in N-gDp since 1981 is due to more and more savings being impounded within the CB system. The Keynesian economists at the Fed have finally achieved their objective: that there is no difference between money and liquid assets, viz., the Gurley-Shaw thesis.
The Fed cycle (what Austrians' call a business cycle), ends up causing FOMC schizophrenia, where inflation accelerates, as the cycle lengthens (now 7 years long), relative to real-output (giving us stagflation). Thus, the inflation hawks worry about inflation running too hot while the economy is stalling out, e.g., Fed minutes just prior to the GR. Same thing is happening currently. The economy is about to stall as the NSA CPI rises. Commodity prices will free-fall at Nov month-end. Then almost immediately, there'll be violent short-covering.
They're stupid. They never changed the deposit classifications for the S&Ls, MSBs, and CUs when they became commercial banks (the widespread introduction of ATS and NOW accounts). The former NBs should have had their deposits in the CBs reclassified as IBDDs. Thus the H.6 release should have showed a drop in M1. I.e., the money stock is increasingly overstated and IBDDs understated (and the CBs are losing interest on what should be e.g., pass thru accounts, etc.). That and commercial bank credit should include the loans and investments of the former non-banks. Monetary confusion compounded.
The alchemy adjustment of Austrian liquidationism (rebalancing and restructuring debt-slavery), is not self-correcting. And the bond market bubble will burst next year as inflation bottoms in Dec.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Sept 3, 2016 8:57:29 GMT -5
[money flows] parse: dt, R-gDp, price-level: 01/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.07 ,,,,, 0.20 Brent oil bottomed 1/20/16 02/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.02 ,,,,, 0.16 stocks bottomed 2/11/16 03/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.13 04/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.04 ,,,,, 0.15 05/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.05 ,,,,, 0.19 06/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.07 ,,,,, 0.15 oil peaked 6/9/16 07/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.11 ,,,,, 0.15 oil bottomed 8/2/16 08/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.11 ,,,,, 0.20 oil top 8/29/16 stocks top 8/15 09/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.09 ,,,,, 0.18 sell stocks short 10/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.02 ,,,,, 0.16 11/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.08 ,,,,, 0.16 sell commodities / buy bonds 12/1/2016 ,,,,, 0.08 ,,,,, 0.08 buy commodities / sell bonds 01/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.05 ,,,,, 0.11 02/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.02 ,,,,, 0.10 03/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.03 ,,,,, 0.09
Oil bottomed in Jan as predicted in Sept 2015. There were double peaks in 2016 as predicted (an asset price forecast which pundits say can't be done). Yellen shouldn't raise rates as N-gDp is now decelerating.
In 2017 there will be subpar R-gDp growth and accelerating inflation (decreasing real rates of interest which will burst the bond bubble).
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Sept 5, 2016 8:58:18 GMT -5
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bimetalaupt
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Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 5, 2016 18:53:17 GMT -5
M1 and M2 are growing faster the GDP and Inflation. WHY? Savings!!
Period ending
Seasonally adjusted
Not seasonally adjusted
M1
M2
M1
M2
13-week
average
4-week
average
week
average
13-week
average
4-week
average
week
average
13-week
average
4-week
average
week
average
13-week
average
4-week
average
week
average
May 30, 2016
3,182.8 3,231.5 3,208.7 12,652.8 12,737.1 12,747.0 3,199.2 3,202.5 3,322.5 12,695.1 12,674.0 12,648.1
June 6, 2016
3,191.0 3,220.2 3,189.9 12,671.3 12,749.9 12,760.0 3,207.4 3,210.0 3,150.2 12,705.7 12,693.8 12,767.2
June 13, 2016
3,198.8 3,220.1 3,234.2 12,691.3 12,766.0 12,799.8 3,213.4 3,205.4 3,120.5 12,716.9 12,717.8 12,801.7
June 20, 2016
3,204.9 3,221.7 3,253.8 12,710.0 12,781.4 12,818.9 3,217.4 3,206.0 3,230.6 12,725.7 12,747.4 12,772.7
June 27, 2016
3,209.6 3,226.7 3,228.7 12,726.0 12,807.6 12,851.7 3,216.9 3,210.8 3,341.9 12,726.1 12,761.5 12,704.3
July 4, 2016
3,215.3 3,242.1 3,251.7 12,742.5 12,823.9 12,825.2 3,221.4 3,255.6 3,329.5 12,730.6 12,779.5 12,839.2
July 11, 2016
3,220.7 3,244.1 3,242.1 12,760.7 12,835.8 12,847.3 3,223.2 3,255.7 3,120.6 12,734.0 12,788.9 12,839.2
July 18, 2016
3,226.3 3,233.6 3,212.0 12,780.4 12,851.7 12,882.6 3,222.7 3,238.6 3,162.5 12,737.1 12,806.8 12,844.3
July 25, 2016
3,231.0 3,237.4 3,243.7 12,799.0 12,872.1 12,933.1 3,221.5 3,220.8 3,270.5 12,747.0 12,825.9 12,780.9
Aug. 1, 2016
3,229.9 3,226.2 3,206.8 12,817.8 12,907.0 12,965.1 3,222.6 3,227.8 3,357.6 12,763.3 12,835.5 12,877.4
Aug. 8, 2016
3,233.2 3,234.9 3,277.2 12,838.0 12,937.9 12,970.6 3,227.4 3,243.3 3,182.5 12,783.7 12,864.0 12,953.5
Aug. 15, 2016
3,240.4 3,264.0 3,328.2 12,857.8 12,965.6 12,993.5 3,232.7 3,254.5 3,207.5 12,803.3 12,893.1 12,960.7
Aug. 22, 2016
3,248.5 3,291.6 3,354.0 12,878.2 12,987.6 13,021.2 3,239.0 3,264.6 3,310.8 12,824.8 12,931.3 12,933.6
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Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates
M1
M2
Thirteen weeks ending August 22, 2016 from thirteen weeks ending:
May 23, 2016 (13 weeks previous)
8.8 7.7
Feb. 22, 2016 (26 weeks previous)
10.6 7.9
Aug. 24, 2015 (52 weeks previous)
7.3 7.1
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bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 5, 2016 19:01:28 GMT -5
Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT)
Download
Observation:
Jul 2016: 5.7 (+ more)
Updated: Aug 29, 2016
Units:
Percent,
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Frequency:
Monthly
1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Max
From
to
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flow5
Well-Known Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:18:02 GMT -5
Posts: 1,778
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Post by flow5 on Sept 7, 2016 16:58:41 GMT -5
We'll get an update Thursday. But the latest #'s point to higher RRs. This extends the rally. Seasonality depends on M1 growth rates after July.
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flow5
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Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:18:02 GMT -5
Posts: 1,778
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Post by flow5 on Sept 9, 2016 16:03:20 GMT -5
The rate-of-change in RRs extrapolated is now decreasing. The current selling is not just because of seasonal factors, nor because of rate hike fears. Stocks are now falling in line with the economy contracting. As Joseph Granville said "watch the tape" not the news.
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flow5
Well-Known Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:18:02 GMT -5
Posts: 1,778
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Post by flow5 on Sept 23, 2016 20:51:03 GMT -5
The downswing will accelerate next week, probably just after the 28th.
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bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 25, 2016 21:06:07 GMT -5
The downswing will accelerate next week, probably just after the 28th. Time to buy on the 28th? DUK and JNJ?
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flow5
Well-Known Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:18:02 GMT -5
Posts: 1,778
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Post by flow5 on Sept 29, 2016 15:59:02 GMT -5
The selling as nothing to do with the news - German bank.
The selling will accelerate next week. Bottom in 2 weeks.
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