Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
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[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 19, 2015 20:05:11 GMT -5
I agree with you that Mr. Trump will probably be a footnote by February. If by some fantastic set of circumstances he wins the GOP nomination--I hereby pledge change my name to "Virgil Snow Leopard" for a week if that happens, just to prove how ridiculously unlikely I find the prospect--and by some even more fantastic set of circumstances wins the Presidency, TPTB will probe him for a few months to see how willing he is to fall in line. If he attempts to make good on even half of what he's promised, he'll have a bullet through his head before June 2017. Multi-layered insurance policy. i think he has a good chance of winning the nomination. i just don't think he will win it. does that make sense? honestly- the longer Carson or Rubio waits to catch up, the more likely Archduke Trump seems to be. I would interpret is as your belief that Mr. Trump has somewhere between a 30-50% chance of winning the nomination. I put it at 2%, since it would basically guarantee Ms. Clinton the win otherwise, and any sensible Republican knows this. The electoral math is simple. The Republicans need Florida to win. Jeb Bush is the only candidate who can carry Florida. Jeb Bush is the only candidate who can woo the usual major Republican backers. Jeb Bush is the only candidate so far left that he won't end up like a bug on Ms. Clinton's windshield, and while he certainly can't win the 2016 election, he'll at least put on a good show. Good shows are good business. They give people the sense that the thoroughly pointless drama that is electing a US President is a relevant exercise in democracy. The Hegelian dialectic is a triumph in social engineering.
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djAdvocate
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only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 19, 2015 22:26:49 GMT -5
i think he has a good chance of winning the nomination. i just don't think he will win it. does that make sense? honestly- the longer Carson or Rubio waits to catch up, the more likely Archduke Trump seems to be. I would interpret is as your belief that Mr. Trump has somewhere between a 30-50% chance of winning the nomination. I put it at 2%, since it would basically guarantee Ms. Clinton the win otherwise, and any sensible Republican knows this. The electoral math is simple. The Republicans need Florida to win. Jeb Bush is the only candidate who can carry Florida. Jeb Bush is the only candidate who can woo the usual major Republican backers. Jeb Bush is the only candidate so far left that he won't end up like a bug on Ms. Clinton's windshield, and while he certainly can't win the 2016 election, he'll at least put on a good show. Good shows are good business. They give people the sense that the thoroughly pointless drama that is electing a US President is a relevant exercise in democracy. The Hegelian dialectic is a triumph in social engineering. you and Paul are going to have a bitter argument about this. i'll bring the popcorn.
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Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 19, 2015 22:58:48 GMT -5
I would interpret is as your belief that Mr. Trump has somewhere between a 30-50% chance of winning the nomination. I put it at 2%, since it would basically guarantee Ms. Clinton the win otherwise, and any sensible Republican knows this. The electoral math is simple. The Republicans need Florida to win. Jeb Bush is the only candidate who can carry Florida. Jeb Bush is the only candidate who can woo the usual major Republican backers. Jeb Bush is the only candidate so far left that he won't end up like a bug on Ms. Clinton's windshield, and while he certainly can't win the 2016 election, he'll at least put on a good show. Good shows are good business. They give people the sense that the thoroughly pointless drama that is electing a US President is a relevant exercise in democracy. The Hegelian dialectic is a triumph in social engineering. you and Paul are going to have a bitter argument about this. i'll bring the popcorn. No offense to Paul, but his record on electoral predictions... well... There's a CNBC talking head named Dennis Gartman that ZH loves to poke fun at because his market prediction record over the past year has been so terrible that it's almost perfectly anti-correlated with actual market moves. In other words, Gartman's predictions have such an unnaturally high probability of being wrong that betting against him at every opportunity would thus far have netted you an absurd amount of money. Let's just say this is kind of like that. I suppose I shouldn't criticize. This is the first election where I've stuck my neck out with a bold prediction. Paul has been forthright and bold in embracing contrarian views, and I can appreciate that. You seem to know what you're doing, so in the past I've trusted your analysis. This time around I just don't see Trump winning. I don't see any significant probability of him winning. So maybe it's my turn to end up with egg on my face if he suddenly picks up Trumpmentum
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djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 19, 2015 23:19:18 GMT -5
you and Paul are going to have a bitter argument about this. i'll bring the popcorn. No offense to Paul, but his record on electoral predictions... well... There's a CNBC talking head named Dennis Gartman that ZH loves to poke fun at because his market prediction record over the past year has been so terrible that it's almost perfectly anti-correlated with actual market moves. In other words, Gartman's predictions have such an unnaturally high probability of being wrong that betting against him at every opportunity would thus far have netted you an absurd amount of money. Let's just say this is kind of like that. I suppose I shouldn't criticize. This is the first election where I've stuck my neck out with a bold prediction. Paul has been forthright and bold in embracing contrarian views, and I can appreciate that. You seem to know what you're doing, so in the past I've trusted your analysis. This time around I just don't see Trump winning. I don't see any significant probability of him winning. So maybe it's my turn to end up with egg on my face if he suddenly picks up Trumpmentum i am kinda shocked by this post, but thanks, i guess. i just watch the data really closely. there are a LOT of things that tell me Trump has no chance whatsoever, and a few indicators that he does have some small chance, so that is where i am at right now. if the numbers move more, i will put more stock in him. but for now, he is the Krispy Kreme of the field.
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