Bluerobin
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Post by Bluerobin on Apr 16, 2015 12:24:26 GMT -5
OK, the great prognosticators are warning of a looming market crash. Some are calling for a 5 to 10 percent correction. Others call for a full blown crash 50 to 70%. I am sitting on a bunch of capital gains with only one large loss I can offset. Unfortunately, the loss (NUE, which I inherited) was just upgraded by some.
Taking the gains will subject me to much in capital gains taxes, so I am not sure which way to go.
What are your thoughts on a major crash? And, any advice on taking gains? Thanks guys, you usually help me clarify things.
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Bluerobin
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Post by Bluerobin on Apr 16, 2015 16:08:53 GMT -5
wxyz, I think Buffet was speculating about a 50% crash. He is the one what got me concerned. I usually just buy stocks, but was thinking of harvesting a loss and converting to cash, just in case. In a few years, I will be converting all to producing an income and if rates recover, converting to CD's.
Thanks for your response. Any others please weigh in.
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Apr 16, 2015 17:14:42 GMT -5
Turn a deaf ear to "street noise", the brokers want to keep customers constantly trading in and out with their "calls". Warren Buffet is a smart man, but he is not always correct. Personally, would not be too surprised to encounter a 10 to 30% dip in the Dow, but that certainly is no worry, just a normal, periodic thing. Hold on to the good stuff and be content...enjoy the dividends as they are paid. Lived through the Great Depression and all "corrections" since. wxyz has the safest method, stick to quality, add when you can, and hold for the long term, retire nicely.
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Angel!
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Post by Angel! on Apr 16, 2015 17:33:33 GMT -5
wxyz, I think Buffet was speculating about a 50% crash. From what I've found, I think people are speculating that Buffet is speculating a crash based on what he is buying/selling. From what I've read he is selling off a lot of consumer stocks like Johnson & Johnson, so people think he is preparing for a crash. But he is buying up a lot of financial stocks.
From what Buffet actually said this past month:
"might be a little on the high side now, but they've not gone into bubble territory."
money.cnn.com/2015/04/02/investing/warren-buffett-stock-market-bubble/
But, I suppose Buffet has to watch his words & choose them carefully when discussing things like this. So maybe actions speak louder than words. But if you are projecting a crash, it seems financial stocks would be the last thing you would want. Basic needs stocks like Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble should hold their value more I would think.
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Bluerobin
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Post by Bluerobin on Apr 17, 2015 6:02:07 GMT -5
Mod and Angel, Yep, I am thinking noise, but needed your views. I could swear I heard Buffet!
wxyz, I retired early in 2006, the bride in 2004. You and I are about the same age. The projection is what I think I might do. Keeping up with stocks might become a challenge. I am mostly in dividend stocks. Of course, CD rates have to recover too. OFFENSE? Why? Nothing offensive in your posts. I can show you the "buy" confirmation for NUE, 100 shares Bought in 1972 for $287.50 and reinvested til mom passed in 2006. Get your calculators out. Thank goodness for step ups. We tend to buy and hold, which is why I need advice about selling. If I can ever figure out how to post them, I might list my stocks some day. I do relate mostly to the Long Term thread. Other threads are good too, but a different type of investing. I am not yet relying on my investments to live. I do draw some of the dividends, but a similar amount from other sources and SS gets "saved". When I retired, we moved a bunch of money into a debit account to fund "extras" and mostly relied on our small pensions from our job and some dividends. I lost a bunch in 2008. I would rather have the cash on hand to bottom shop, rather than wait or reallocate for recovery. Generally, I do stocks rather than funds. I am just not sure if I should sell. Most of the stocks are better ones.
All, so far the advice has been great.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 17, 2015 8:25:56 GMT -5
Turn a deaf ear to "street noise", the brokers want to keep customers constantly trading in and out with their "calls". Warren Buffet is a smart man, but he is not always correct. Personally, would not be too surprised to encounter a 10 to 30% dip in the Dow, but that certainly is no worry, just a normal, periodic thing. Hold on to the good stuff and be content...enjoy the dividends as they are paid. Lived through the Great Depression and all "corrections" since. wxyz has the safest method, stick to quality, add when you can, and hold for the long term, retire nicely. When Buffet starts dumping Coca Cola, IBM, and another ten major holdings I will worry about the "crash".
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Bluerobin
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Post by Bluerobin on Apr 17, 2015 8:34:30 GMT -5
Good advice VB!
wxyz, I try to avoid taxes........ owe the feds nothing again. I sure hope they don't call the few triple tax frees I have left.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 17, 2015 8:38:15 GMT -5
Yeh, but the problem with my theory is we find this out after he sold them........ Got to work out the details on this
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Bluerobin
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Post by Bluerobin on Apr 17, 2015 9:07:40 GMT -5
APPL EEP NUE APU EPD PG BGS ETG PPL BMY FLY PRU CAT GE RAI CEM GXP SJM COP KRFT SWX DD LLY UGI DUK MDLZ VZ EDE MO
Ok, this is the best I can do. I tried to make a chart. This is most of what I hold minus any triple tax frees. I don't see a lot of risk.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 17, 2015 10:13:45 GMT -5
I just got out of J&J and PG Wednesday and Thursday respectively. No particular reason other than raising cash right now.
Both were smallish accounts.
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Bluerobin
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Post by Bluerobin on Apr 17, 2015 10:33:28 GMT -5
VB, I am debating PG. Ultimately I would like to get down to 10 - 15 stocks. At one point I was over 100 - Way too much reading.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 29, 2015 8:28:12 GMT -5
VB, I am debating PG. Ultimately I would like to get down to 10 - 15 stocks. At one point I was over 100 - Way too much reading. I see their head man is leaving, but says his replacement has been involved with all major decisions of divisions being sold off, and mgmt style should remain the same in the near future.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 29, 2015 8:30:40 GMT -5
Twitter and Yelp are both being taken to the wood shed this morning! I wonder how this sets up Facebook this afternoon. Does FB come out a winner or gets battered? My feeling is they win the battle.
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Jul 29, 2015 9:55:52 GMT -5
Twitter and Yelp are both being taken to the wood shed this morning! I wonder how this sets up Facebook this afternoon. Does FB come out a winner or gets battered? My feeling is they win the battle. TWTR & FB are completely different in that 1 can be monetized (sell ads) and the other is more of a news feed ... Yelp is more like FB however. But not as successful in advertizing.
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The Virginian
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Post by The Virginian on Jul 30, 2015 15:25:07 GMT -5
I am buying REITs right now. they are down and if interest rates rise then they may be down for a while but their income is good and they have some great yields. As for the "Crash" I don't know, but I am sitting on cash in anticipation, 50% will be a buying opportunity that I want to take advantage of. Not selling anything unless they quit paying Dividends.
Sell PG & JNJ ? Not very likely for me !
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Bluerobin
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Post by Bluerobin on Aug 21, 2015 15:45:42 GMT -5
Well, looks like the crash has started. Anyone panic yet?
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ken a.k.a OMK
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Aug 21, 2015 15:49:23 GMT -5
No but I am going to get an employment application at Walmart for my wife.
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Aug 21, 2015 16:08:55 GMT -5
Ole' Blue, only foolish speculators panic. Old timers like us just get prepared to buy bargains when the panic ebbs and a new bull appears on the horizon. Panics do not last forever, every trend runs it's course and then corrects. Just remain "cool" while others sweat.
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kent
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Post by kent on Aug 21, 2015 17:31:09 GMT -5
Blue, don't panic and sell because all you will accomplish is locking in your loses. Look at it this way, stocks are about the only thing people DON'T buy when they are on sale. Sugar, flour and the like - 20% off sale - buy a boat load. Based on your profile, you are 115 years old so what difference does it really make anyway?
ETA ModE92 is older than dirt as well and it appears not to be in the panic mode - sound advice IMO
Second ETA - the S&P was down 3.2% today. Our holdings dropped 1.54% - it hurt in pure dollars - more digits to the left of the decimal than we liked but that's the way the Mercedes Benz and is exactly is why you have a BALANCED portfolio when you are retired.
Now that I've posted that sage advice, we will experience a 10% drop for the S&P on Moanday*
*Not a tupo
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The Virginian
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Post by The Virginian on Aug 21, 2015 17:38:00 GMT -5
Not a Crash but a buying opportunity ! Don't Panic unless companies quit paying dividends !
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Bluerobin
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Post by Bluerobin on Aug 24, 2015 8:35:00 GMT -5
I had just started implementing my long term strategy of converting to cash. Should have started months ago! Looks like a big drop today!
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ArchietheDragon
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Post by ArchietheDragon on Aug 24, 2015 8:35:51 GMT -5
We are going to get nailed. bend over and take it like a champ.
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Aug 24, 2015 13:55:30 GMT -5
A good correction is necessary to "clear the air" and provide buying opportunities for astute investors. The market, IMO, has been overpriced for some time. Believe this is a period to accumulate cash and be prepared to add to core positions when the storm clouds clear. Relax, have patience, let this downtrend run it's course, whether it may be a few months or a year or so. With the world full of problems, who knows exactly how long this pullback will last. History shows us that storms do not last forever and brighter days will be coming in the fullness of time.
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kent
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Post by kent on Aug 24, 2015 14:39:16 GMT -5
I don't, as a rule, day trade but....first thing out of the shoot this morning, Ford was pretty much irresistible at $10.44. If you had purchased 10,000 shares and dumped them only a few hours later at $13.25, you would have made a nice little profit of roughly $28K.
Now, wile that "sounds" good, things can always go the other way and that's why a balanced portfolio that you don't screw around with is the smartest (IMO) way to go when retired.
<<My thoughts are there may still be money to be made on this puppy IF you have the guts>>
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