djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2013 19:21:57 GMT -5
Square miles of "area" do not vote. PEOPLE vote. Is it reasonable to expect a sparsely populated 430 square mile "district" in the hinterlands, with a grand total of (let's say) 43 registered voters, to have as much political influence as the same amount of densely populated urban area that has millions of residents? it is redder by % than many states, too. but i get your point. here is mine: if you travel a lot in this state, you might not guess that it was a blue state at all.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2013 19:22:52 GMT -5
A Democrat involved in voter fraud requires proof anymore? Really? Do you also want me to prove water is wet, and the sun is hot? Gimme a break. You have Google, if you're not already up to speed, it's easy to fix that. nice deflection, right Mojo?
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 21, 2013 19:25:54 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure there's some sort of trial coming up regarding the voter fraud thing. It hasn't even been proven there WAS fraud until that trial is complete, much less that Alan West lost the election because of it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2013 19:33:48 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure there's some sort of trial coming up regarding the voter fraud thing. It hasn't even been proven there WAS fraud until that trial is complete, much less that Alan West lost the election because of it. it couldn't possibly be because he was a crappy candidate. no. it has to be voter fraud.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 21, 2013 19:35:01 GMT -5
Well paul says it is a proven fact. I mean if you cant trust the facts from 'Don't doubt me. Ever.', who can you trust?
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 21, 2013 19:37:56 GMT -5
Yeah, right! NOT! Until something is actually proven, to say it's proven is a ... falsehood. Here's the statement about who's filing suit: "True the Vote, a Houston-based anti-voter fraud watchdog, filed suit last month demanding all election and recount records in the contest between West and Murphy." link
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2013 19:48:30 GMT -5
Yeah, right! NOT! Until something is actually proven, to say it's proven is a ... falsehood. Here's the statement about who's filing suit: "True the Vote, a Houston-based anti-voter fraud watchdog, filed suit last month demanding all election and recount records in the contest between West and Murphy." linki look forward to it. on one condition: that once the results are in that both sides accept them as a general case for ALL ELECTIONS.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 21, 2013 20:01:44 GMT -5
mmhmm - the lawsuit was against St. Luce county in Florida to inspect the votes. The date of your link is February 4, 2013. They won the 'lawsuit' to inspect. truethevote.org/news/true-the-vote-wins-in-settlement-with-st-lucie-county-fl-elections-supervisorThe date of my Brietbart link is some time in June of this year and at that point of time, the best that Breitbart could say is voter fraud may have happened. Not a word was mentioned about the findings (if any) of True The Vote's investigstion. So at this point no one has been indicted or charged in the Allen West investgation. There is nothing I can find on the Internet about the supposed voter fraud mastermind Jeffrey Garcia, being chsrged or indicted.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 21, 2013 20:04:09 GMT -5
I remembered reading something about a lawsuit, Tennesseer and found the information through Google. Didn't even look at the date. I wonder if there's any information as to what was discovered by True the Vote. I just did a quick query and wasn't able to find anything. I'll try harder either later, or tomorrow.
ETA: Looks like the settlement was on May 7, 2013 in favor of True the Vote. That should mean they have the records and are examining them. I'd think they'd be close to some sort of discovery by now. I'll keep an eye on their site for any updates.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Oct 21, 2013 20:12:39 GMT -5
It is absolutely a difficult task under the best of circumstances. But leaving the parties in charge of any part of it very quickly makes it the worst of circumstances. Trying to balance population among districts is going to make some rural ones huge in land area while some in metro areas are relatively tiny. Just "dropping a box on the map" isn't enough, as you say.
About the only thing I could suggest is computer modeling which may take into account natural borders like rivers, city limits, or county lines but would have a high bias for straight lines and rectangular shapes. Start with that as the template and then have a bipartisan commission tinker with it if necessary, but not allowing anything too irregular. You won't come up with anything approaching perfect, but you would certainly avoid the problems we have currently.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2013 20:23:08 GMT -5
it is amazing how few opportunities are used to use technology to make elections fairer. mostly they are used to make them less fair.
we should work on that.
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 21, 2013 20:23:49 GMT -5
mmhmm - here is a news article dated today, October 21. Jeffrey Garcia is going to jail for 90 days for requesting absentee ballots to distribute to others. That apparently is a felony. it does not appear thst any of the absentee ballots were distributed. "Prosecutors tied Jeffrey Garcia to hundreds of phony ballot requests submitted for last year’s elections on behalf of unsuspecting voters without their permission. Though none of those ballots were mailed, forged or cast, Joe Garcia’s campaign planned to target those infrequent voters with telephone calls, fliers and visits to try to persuade them to vote for the candidate. Read more here: www.miamiherald.com/2013/10/20/3701344/ex-aide-to-miami-rep-joe-garcia.html#storylink=cpySo apparently there were no fradulent votes cast and Allen West simply lost the election.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 21, 2013 20:27:51 GMT -5
Interesting, Tennesseer. I wonder what will come of True the Vote's perusings. It's downright disgusting any of this should ever happen, on either side (and it happens on both sides).
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 21, 2013 20:30:43 GMT -5
Interesting, Tennesseer. I wonder what will come of True the Vote's perusings. It's downright disgusting any of this should ever happen, on either side (and it happens on both sides). Nothing on True The Vote's website. Just the news about Garcia going to jail which is who True The Vote was looking into.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 21, 2013 20:33:44 GMT -5
Yeah, Tenn, I saw that. It gives me cause to wonder as they've had five months to examine what they received. I'd think there would be an update if they'd found anything, but it may be they're waiting until their full investigation is complete. Who knows?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2013 20:40:23 GMT -5
mmhmm - here is a news article dated today, October 21. Jeffrey Garcia is going to jail for 90 days for requesting absentee ballots to distribute to others. That apparently is a felony. it does not appear thst any of the absentee ballots were distributed. "Prosecutors tied Jeffrey Garcia to hundreds of phony ballot requests submitted for last year’s elections on behalf of unsuspecting voters without their permission. Though none of those ballots were mailed, forged or cast, Joe Garcia’s campaign planned to target those infrequent voters with telephone calls, fliers and visits to try to persuade them to vote for the candidate. Read more here: www.miamiherald.com/2013/10/20/3701344/ex-aide-to-miami-rep-joe-garcia.html#storylink=cpySo apparently there were no fradulent votes cast and Allen West simply lost the election. like i say- they can investigate this until they are blue in the face. want to spend $1B on it? be my guest. on one condition: that after having done that, that they will ASSUME that what was true in this election is true for EVERY OTHER ELECTION. anyone who is unwilling to do that (understandably)- how about this, instead? whomever loses this one pays for the next one.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2013 20:46:25 GMT -5
and i again, reiterate:
i am 100% unconvinced of any problem with individual voter fraud. where problems with fraud exist, it has to do with systemic voter fraud, typically by campaigns. and i am absolutely for prosecuting those cases to the limit of the law.
outside of those cases, however, i am far more worried about voter suppression than voter fraud. ie- in North Carolina, students are not allowed to vote on campus any more. that statute has been in place since the 60's or 70's, and is still on the books in most places. it encourages students to vote, since many of them would otherwise have to travel long distances in the middle of the school year to do so- which for MANY will not be feasible. there is no evidence that overturning this statute improved "voter integrity". there is, however, very strong evidence that overturning this statute reduces turnout among students. i will leave it up to other posters to consider how students typically vote, and what party overturned that statute.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 21:22:29 GMT -5
Yeah, right! NOT! Until something is actually proven, to say it's proven is a ... falsehood. Here's the statement about who's filing suit: "True the Vote, a Houston-based anti-voter fraud watchdog, filed suit last month demanding all election and recount records in the contest between West and Murphy." linki look forward to it. on one condition: that once the results are in that both sides accept them as a general case for ALL ELECTIONS. I'm a bit chary of allowing Texans to establish precedents that will define and create limitations for all the 49 other states. They already have had too great an influence in what becomes curriculum in our schools; school textbooks all over the country have been affected by what Texans will or won't allow in "publicly funded" textbooks. The "Lowest Common Denominator" doesn't really need to be reduced further, does it?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2013 21:36:44 GMT -5
i look forward to it. on one condition: that once the results are in that both sides accept them as a general case for ALL ELECTIONS. I'm a bit chary of allowing Texans to establish precedents that will define and create limitations for all the 49 other states. They already have had too great an influence in what becomes curriculum in our schools; school textbooks all over the country have been affected by what Texans will or won't allow in "publicly funded" textbooks. The "Lowest Common Denominator" doesn't really need to be reduced further, does it? that was an expression of my confidence that there was not any noteworthy fraud in the West election.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 21:51:00 GMT -5
I don't know much about Alan West, but I speculate that he could have gotten twice as many votes as he deserved, and still lost.
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Post by Phoenix84 on Oct 22, 2013 11:34:08 GMT -5
I doubt the shutdown will have much of an effect on the mid term elections next year. That's a virtual eternity in politics, and most voters only care about what's happened lately. The only ones still agitating about the government shutdown and using it as political fodder are people who were never likely to vote republican in the first place.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2013 11:36:32 GMT -5
I doubt the shutdown will have much of an effect on the mid term elections next year. LOL! hahahahaha. ok, that one made my eyes water.
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Post by Phoenix84 on Oct 22, 2013 11:58:16 GMT -5
I doubt the shutdown will have much of an effect on the mid term elections next year. LOL! hahahahaha. ok, that one made my eyes water. Really, how do you think the shutdown affected your average Joe Blow citizen? Other than not being able to visit national parks for a couple of weeks, not that much for most people. Besides, most polls I've seen on the subject suggest that people blame the democrats almost as much as the republicans, with the majority blaming both.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2013 12:37:30 GMT -5
LOL! hahahahaha. ok, that one made my eyes water. Really, how do you think the shutdown affected your average Joe Blow citizen? that is a lame way to measure voter impact, imo. how did Anthony Weiner's "sexting" affect the average Joe? how politically viable is he?Other than not being able to visit national parks for a couple of weeks, not that much for most people. Besides, most polls I've seen on the subject suggest that people blame the democrats almost as much as the republicans, with the majority blaming both. no, it is the utter failure of congress to DO THEIR JOB that will resonate with voters. the ads are already designed, imo. it is just a matter of when, not if, they are used.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2013 10:26:46 GMT -5
Square miles of "area" do not vote. PEOPLE vote. Is it reasonable to expect a sparsely populated 430 square mile "district" in the hinterlands, with a grand total of (let's say) 43 registered voters, to have as much political influence as the same amount of densely populated urban area that has millions of residents? Aw, how touchingly naive. You're not going nearly far enough. DOLLARS vote. Is it reasonable to expect 100 people with $10k in the bank to have as much political influence as one millionaire? How about 1,000 with $1k in the bank? 10,000 with $100 in the bank?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2013 11:03:47 GMT -5
RE: OP
Funny you should mention Michigan.
Here's Sean Trende's analysis. Of the 14 districts in Michigan, three saw a swing toward Republicans under the newly-drawn lines of greater than 1%. Two of these three - the 9th and 14th - remained comfortably Democratic. As Sean explains, the VRA left little option but to produce contorted political geographies round Detroit.
I'm going to leave aside the pointlessness of projecting from polls now to elections a year hence, although I think Nate's assessment of that is sound. We'll see.
I will address the question of performance at the LAST election as a predictor of the NEXT. In Colorado, Angela Giron took 55% of the vote for the State Senate seate representing District 3 in 2010. She was recalled earlier this year by a 56% vote. Granted, Democrats pack their strongholds tight - it's how a proven disgrace like Charlie Rangel gets re-elected. Even so, I don't think their margins are unassailable in all cases.
I've read on here about a putative 'silent majority' of center-left go-along-to-get-along apolitical types. Maybe. I think Nixon's 'silent majority' is more like it: a center-right don't-trust-the-government-but-grudgingly-accept-it crowd. Nixon's approval went up 30% after he acknowledged that silent majority, and he went on to win 49 of the 50 states in 1972.
Sure, this isn't the 1970s anymore. But I don't think the country's moved to the left since a Republican president established the Environmental Protection Agency, abolished the gold standard, and normalized relations with Communist China.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2013 11:09:16 GMT -5
Fundamentally different thing. Firstly, he was an individual, making very individual mistakes; secondly, he lied about his mistakes; thirdly, he kept making them; fourthly, he lied about that as well; fifthly, his mistakes weren't tolerable to his constituency.
Compare Tea Party Republicans' stance against Obamacare and Washington's spendthrift ways. Firstly, they're a group, expressing a political opinion; secondly, they're consistent; thirdly, they effected a retention of sequester-level spending which a few months ago, and even at one point during the shutdown, Democrats were railing against; fourthly, they remain committed to their political principles; fifthly, they were elected to do this.
I don't see this having a big impact on races in 2014 for the House. Maybe for Senate primaries. Certainly for a third-party candidacy in 2016 for the Presidency.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2013 11:17:44 GMT -5
Fundamentally different thing. Firstly, he was an individual, making very individual mistakes; secondly, he lied about his mistakes; thirdly, he kept making them; fourthly, he lied about that as well; fifthly, his mistakes weren't tolerable to his constituency. no, it really isn't, if you understood my point. here it is again: what ruins a politician's chances is not necessarily something that has ANY impact on voters.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2013 11:18:54 GMT -5
RE: OP
Funny you should mention Michigan.
Here's Sean Trende's analysis. Of the 14 districts in Michigan, three saw a swing toward Republicans under the newly-drawn lines of greater than 1%. Two of these three - the 9th and 14th - remained comfortably Democratic. As Sean explains, the VRA left little option but to produce contorted political geographies round Detroit.
I'm going to leave aside the pointlessness of projecting from polls now to elections a year hence, although I think Nate's assessment of that is sound. We'll see.
I will address the question of performance at the LAST election as a predictor of the NEXT. In Colorado, Angela Giron took 55% of the vote for the State Senate seate representing District 3 in 2010. She was recalled earlier this year by a 56% vote. Granted, Democrats pack their strongholds tight - it's how a proven disgrace like Charlie Rangel gets re-elected. Even so, I don't think their margins are unassailable in all cases.
I've read on here about a putative 'silent majority' of center-left go-along-to-get-along apolitical types. Maybe. I think Nixon's 'silent majority' is more like it: a center-right don't-trust-the-government-but-grudgingly-accept-it crowd. Nixon's approval went up 30% after he acknowledged that silent majority, and he went on to win 49 of the 50 states in 1972.
Sure, this isn't the 1970s anymore. But I don't think the country's moved to the left since a Republican president established the Environmental Protection Agency, abolished the gold standard, and normalized relations with Communist China.
precisely. it really didn't start in earnest before Reagan imo, but we are down to less than a decade.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2013 12:05:37 GMT -5
Fundamentally different thing. Firstly, he was an individual, making very individual mistakes; secondly, he lied about his mistakes; thirdly, he kept making them; fourthly, he lied about that as well; fifthly, his mistakes weren't tolerable to his constituency. no, it really isn't, if you understood my point. here it is again: what ruins a politician's chances is not necessarily something that has ANY impact on voters. Again, me answering a point you weren't making. Mea culpa.
I think you're using "impact" in the sense of materially affecting their lives, say in the way losing a health insurance policy or having to pay 50% more out-of-pocket for it materially affects your life (random hypothetical example), as opposed to my sense of registering with a voter as a positive or negative association with a name on a ballot paper. I don't think you're suggesting people don't vote with their pocketbooks, although I agree that you're correct that's not their only consideration. I don't think the government shutdown will register long on anybody's radar. Arming drug cartels, and executing American citizens and incarcerating American residents for exercising free speech, and the deaths of Ambassador Stephens and SEAL Team 6, and the abusive partisanship of the IRS, certainly haven't, although there's a drip-drip effect there that's making each new revelation of incompetence, cronyism, and disregard for constitutional law in this administration more persuasive to more people. The shutdown didn't impact many people, by either what I'm calling "your" definition or mine. People, by and large, tuned it out. The President is preaching to an echo chamber at this point; he's never been very good at actually persuading anybody to change their minds - indeed, by deriding everyone who disagrees with him, he's succeeded in making political forces out of individuals who simply wouldn't have coalesced without his unifying presence. So, despite his assertions to the contrary, and despite what blip-polls tell us (and comparisons with blame allocation in 1996 are interesting - see here for example; also compare the view of Republican leadership ahead of the wave election of 2010, which split rather than empowered the GOP, to polls today), I don't think that the shutdown will hurt Republicans that much - by contrast, Weiner's indiscretions, which weren't impactful by "your" definition but were by mine, because of their prurient nature and ready comedic potential, proved electorally fatal.
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