Polling Numbers: Dramatic Shifts

[djAdvocate]

pump- wtf is that?

[djAdvocate]

Oct 11, 2013 14:18:15 GMT -5 @gdgyva said:

is medicare going away?   nope...ok

war in iraq....basically done and over....check

war in afghanistan....not sure what the hell we are still doing there....i agree we should shut it all down

bush tax cuts.....i believe we just had a round of tax increases....never enough though is it.....the more we pay, the more they spend

enough is when payments = expenses + a bit of principle.  until then, no, it is absolutely not enough.  but unlike most Republicans, i care about deficits more than taxation.  especially since i am basically paying HALF what i did under Reagan.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 11, 2013 15:24:00 GMT -5 Opti said:

Shall we quibble over 100's of millions or hundeds's of billions?

csis.org/files/publication/120515_US_Spending_Afghan_War_SIGAR.pdf

The fact remains, however, that if the CRS and OMB figures for FY2001-FY2013 that follow are totaled for all direct spending on the war, they reach $641.7 billion, of which $198.2 billion – or over 30% – will be spent in FY2012 and FY2013. This is an incredible amount of money to have spent with so few controls, so few plans, so little auditing, and almost no credible measures of effectiveness.
It is also clear that the end effect has been to sharply raise the threshold of corruption in Afghanistan, to make transition planning far more difficult, and raise the risk that sudden funding cuts will undermine the Afghan government’s ability to maintain a viable economy and effective security forces.




If the Tea Party and the Republicans wanted to be taken seriously they'd be willing to cut
most spending inlcuded the sacred and bloated military budget. IMO we shouldn't have fought the Iraq or Afghanistan wars. And having made the decision to do so, it could have been planned IMO to be done in 5 years or less. But war is very profitable for some people and politicians so here we are.

it really comes down to priorities.  we can either help pay people for insurance, or we can bomb the s*&t out of some desert.  i am betting MOST Americans are on the insurance side of the argument.

[EVT1]

Here we go again- the polls are wrong

firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/11/20924466-cruz-scoffs-at-nbcwsj-poll-thats-not-reflective-of-where-this-country-is?lite

     "If you seek out liberal Obama supporters and ask them their views, they're going to tell you they're liberal Obama supporters. That's not reflective of where this country is," Cruz told NBC News in an interview at the Capitol.

     Cruz also asserted that the poll's findings were undercut by the fact that nearly 20 percent of the poll's sample were government employees -- and therefore, according to Cruz, inclined to oppose the shutdown and support President Barack Obama.

     "I'll note that that poll was very heavily weighted with an awful lot of Democrats with an awful lot of Obama supporters and 20 percent of the people polled were government workers," Cruz said

[djAdvocate]

Oct 11, 2013 16:54:05 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Here we go again- the polls are wrong

firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/11/20924466-cruz-scoffs-at-nbcwsj-poll-thats-not-reflective-of-where-this-country-is?lite

     "If you seek out liberal Obama supporters and ask them their views, they're going to tell you they're liberal Obama supporters. That's not reflective of where this country is," Cruz told NBC News in an interview at the Capitol.

yep.  still on the 2012 merry-go-round.  they will never get their fill of kool aid.  we all know how well that worked out for them last time.  Romney looked pale with shock.

     Cruz also asserted that the poll's findings were undercut by the fact that nearly 20 percent of the poll's sample were government employees -- and therefore, according to Cruz, inclined to oppose the shutdown and support President Barack Obama.

does he realize that the 20% who are government employees are also VOTERS?  ok, maybe not in his district, but maybe so.

     "I'll note that that poll was very heavily weighted with an awful lot of Democrats with an awful lot of Obama supporters and 20 percent of the people polled were government workers," Cruz said

he has no evidence that is true.  but then again, he had no evidence that the shutdown would defund ObamaCare, and we all know how that turned out for him.

edit: the implication of bias that Cruz posits in the first statement is categorically false.  polls are designed to reflect the views of people.  not just liberals: everyone.  but if he doesn't believe that, he is welcome to continue thinking of his Quixotic battle over the ACA as heroic, when it is the supreme act of foolishness that may yet earn him the title of the person most destructive to the party that acts as the only check against Democratic power.

[Deleted]

I guess what I'm asking is are we seeing significant declines in military spending as the wars wind down?  And if not, why?

For example, after leaving Iraq, they were continuing to build equipment that the military did not need, purely for "stimulus" purposes.  Is military spending (all spending, not just budgeted spending) declining in proportion to the reduction in active operations?

[EVT1]

He should get together with President Romney and Rove and write a book on proper polling methodology.

Remember, it's not a lie if you believe it.

I thought the new talking point was that a default wouldn't really be a bad thing- I hear callers chiming in on the local RW radio that want a default.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 11, 2013 17:11:55 GMT -5 @investorbob said:

I guess what I'm asking is are we seeing significant declines in military spending as the wars wind down?  And if not, why?

good question.  when was our official "pull out date" from Iraq?

For example, after leaving Iraq, they were continuing to build equipment that the military did not need, purely for "stimulus" purposes.  Is military spending (all spending, not just budgeted spending) declining in proportion to the reduction in active operations?

another good question.  i need coffee. 

[Opti]

pump- wtf is that?

That my friend is the Cloudflare server hanging and throwing out all the formatting
information originally in my post. On the plus side, it didn't throw the post into the bit bucket,
so its something. Since we've gone to V5 and the Cloudflare server I can't edit posts as the
timing will remove the post entirely ... so not sure if I will be able to fix on a public computer in the near future.

Wikipedia has a breakdown of the appropriations for the Iraq war, and with inflation adjusted dollars apparently is only second in cost tothe Vietnam War. In addition, apparently 10% of our debt is related to the war efforts and military costs.

Was unable to read some other interesting links. Businessweek article and HuffPo on how both recent wars have damaged the economy.

[Opti]

it really comes down to priorities. we can either help pay people for insurance, or we can bomb the s*&t out of some desert. i am betting MOST Americans are on the insurance side of the argument.

Well, I'm more for healthcare for all versus the insurance thing, but its the best that can
apparently happen here for now. I think you and I agree that bombing the crap out of places really just buys us enemies for the future versus solving anything, especially with these last two wars. WW II these were not.


One thing given G*a's comments. I was thinking of all the folks every year who complain up X% not paying federal income tax and they always want to cut what they consider entitlement programs. Now interestingly, when you limit to looking at federal income tax only and ignoring the SS and Medicare deductions no one with a paycheck can escape or get refunded, well the Military is the biggest item in the budget for using the federal income tax bar none. Foodstamps, WIC, and "Obama" phones don't even come close. And interestingly, like the war effort, both Foodstamps and WIC increase economic activity greater than the amount of the program.


Obviously most of us on here want fiscal responsible budgets and plans. I think we all
differ on what we would cut and why. With all the ongoing complaints by our right leaning posters on Benghazi, I'm remined why I agreed with much of Ron Paul's thoughts on our foreign and war related spending. If we simply didn't even have an embassy in places we aren't really wanted like Libya, we'd have fewer Americans in harms way to begin with and save money. Given soldiers are still getting shot and killed in these ill-advised wars, I don't feel its been money well spent no matter how much good we get from military technology and what we learn about fixing up very wounded soldiers. I'd be happy to live with a slower pace of improvements or buying them from other countries if we got less dead soldiers and Americans in the bargain.

[EVT1]

Cruz moving on:

     Speaking to the Values Voter Summit in Washington, D.C., Cruz told the audience that the country was facing “extraordinary times.”

     “You look at our Constitution, you look at our Bill of Rights, this is an administration that seems bound and determined to violate every single one of our Bill or Rights,” he explained.

     “Tyranny!” a man in the audience shouted.

      “I don’t know that they’ve yet violated the Third Amendment, but I expect them to start quartering soldiers in people’s homes soon,” the Texas Republican said




www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/10/11/ted-cruz-obama-will-start-quartering-soldiers-in-peoples-homes-soon/

I expect the next shout from the nutbags in the 'values voters' audience to be sic semper tyrannis.  Because that's what tyrants do- try to give healthcare to people that need it 

[Opti]

Thank you to the Mod who fixed the formatting in reply #29.

[Opti]

Perhaps PB posted twice for me only the second time mucked the formatting.
Reply #30 is reply #29, just less readable. So I will delete it.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 11, 2013 22:36:18 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Cruz moving on:

     Speaking to the Values Voter Summit in Washington, D.C., Cruz told the audience that the country was facing “extraordinary times.”

     “You look at our Constitution, you look at our Bill of Rights, this is an administration that seems bound and determined to violate every single one of our Bill or Rights,” he explained.

     “Tyranny!” a man in the audience shouted.

      “I don’t know that they’ve yet violated the Third Amendment, but I expect them to start quartering soldiers in people’s homes soon,” the Texas Republican said




www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/10/11/ted-cruz-obama-will-start-quartering-soldiers-in-peoples-homes-soon/

I expect the next shout from the nutbags in the 'values voters' audience to be sic semper tyrannis.  Because that's what tyrants do- try to give healthcare to people that need it 

i look forward to the day that Cruz is seen in the historical light the way that Bob Dorner is, today.

[Tennesseer]

Oct 12, 2013 9:52:33 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 11, 2013 22:36:18 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Cruz moving on:

     Speaking to the Values Voter Summit in Washington, D.C., Cruz told the audience that the country was facing “extraordinary times.”

     “You look at our Constitution, you look at our Bill of Rights, this is an administration that seems bound and determined to violate every single one of our Bill or Rights,” he explained.

     “Tyranny!” a man in the audience shouted.

      “I don’t know that they’ve yet violated the Third Amendment, but I expect them to start quartering soldiers in people’s homes soon,” the Texas Republican said




www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/10/11/ted-cruz-obama-will-start-quartering-soldiers-in-peoples-homes-soon/

I expect the next shout from the nutbags in the 'values voters' audience to be sic semper tyrannis.  Because that's what tyrants do- try to give healthcare to people that need it 

i look forward to the day that Cruz is seen in the historical light the way that Bob Dorner is, today.

For those more than old enough to remember, Cruz reminds me of the salesman and con artist Mr. Haney of the tv show Green Acres.

[Deleted]

Holy cow.  The sound bytes I heard from Cruz sounded good to me.  But the comments above....  Shameful.

(Of course, they're just as shameful as Democrats saying Republicans want to starve kids and kill old people.  I take it we can all agree on that)

[djAdvocate]

you know what this is starting to remind me of?  2009.  bear with me, a moment.

if you were paying close attention to the Democratic caucus in 2009, you would have noticed a couple of strange things.  the first is that some of the members of that caucus were not particularly liberal.  that is because of a conscious decision by Democratic leadership (DNC) to run "centrist" candidates.  in the South that meant some fairly CONSERVATIVE people.  people who would not naturally ally themselves with some of Obamas more liberal positions.

during the ACA debate, these "Blue Dogs" were very difficult to rein in.  in the Senate, they joined GOP filibuster on many occasions.  they were a "rogue element" within the party- and now they are largely- GONE.

fast forward.  we now have this problem on the GOP side, in the House.  they are sticking to their guns, and making it very hard to legislate, because the moderate, sensible part of the GOP can't bring them into the fold.

it is hard to envision how this ends well for the GOP, given how 2010 turned out for Democrats.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 12, 2013 10:58:20 GMT -5 @investorbob said:

Holy cow.  The sound bytes I heard from Cruz sounded good to me.  But the comments above....  Shameful.

(Of course, they're just as shameful as Democrats saying Republicans want to starve kids and kill old people.  I take it we can all agree on that)

i heard some of his "other comments" just a minute ago, and he sounds just like Karl Rove in 2012.  poll denialism is a really bad place to end up.  it is basically flat earthing your way through the debate.  but i am fairly confident in thinking this is not a widespread problem.  i think it is mostly a Cruzian (Cruz and his oddly disconnected cheerleaders) problem.

[happyhoix]

Even most democrats agree that we need to work on balancing the budget.

Direct federal spending on the war through 2012 will reach $823 billion, surpassing the $738 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars the U.S. spent on the Vietnam War, the Congressional Research Service estimated in a March 29 report. Only World War II had a higher direct cost, $4.1 trillion, in current dollars.

I think pretty much every American citizen is disgusted with the level of debt we have.

The thing is, I don't recall any Republicans breathing a word of dismay during Bush II's reign, when he got us into the Iraq quagmire and our debt load began to increase. All they wanted to talk about was how America was fighting for freedom, and apparently there is no spending limit when you're trying to get access to oil -  err, I mean, spread freedom in Iraq. Anyone who spoke against the crazy spending was labeled a traitor.

Our political climate is ripe for a moderate Republican to step in with a fiscally conservative message. There should be no sacred cows left unbutchered, which means corporate tax breaks and money for our massive war industry go on the chopping block along with improvements to the ACA, and modifications to medicare and SSI benefits.

I'm all for fiscal responsibility, as long as ALL the government programs are fair game and it doesn't turn into a war on the poor.

I hope the republicans get the message and find a moderate, fiscally responsible candidate to run for 2016, because the democrats are not known as the party of fiscal restraint.

[Deleted]

or when bush passed medi part d...

[EVT1]

Oct 14, 2013 7:28:37 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

I hope the republicans get the message and find a moderate, fiscally responsible candidate to run for 2016, because the democrats are not known as the party of fiscal restraint.

Which is odd considering that since I have been a voter the record shows otherwise.