What is the decline on the NYSE's New Highs trying to say? Today's posted chart shows the raw daily data on the NYSE's daily New Highs. On this chart, a minimum of 100 is a very important level in a rally. 150 is what I want to see. 50 is neutral.) After looking at the "A" shape resistance lines, two things can be observed on today's chart:? 1.That the New Highs above 150, the positive traction is high and a market positive for any rally.? 2. The second observation, is that New Highs had a peak level on November 5th.? And since then, the trend has been moving down. Unless this trend changes, it will eventually bring the level of New Highs down below 100, and possibly below 50. Why are those numbers important? Because we want to see New Highs above 100 for a healthy rally, and below 50 is a problem level typically associated with pullbacks or market corrections.? So, the declining trend has been a slow descent, but its message is that it wouldn't hurt to put the NYSE New Highs on your radar screen during the coming weeks. Be sure to see the "A" shaped resistance lines on today's chart. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p92532384074
Last Edit: Jan 14, 2011 11:14:24 GMT -5 by majeasy - Back to Top
this post is conjecture and opinion, feel free to disagree.... this is one of my favorite pet peeves.... i've been guilty, and others are currently guilty when they say over and over again "buy low, sell high", or short high, cover low.... this sounds perfectly normal and what could be wrong with something so straight forward.... what's wrong with buy low, sell high is it involves counter trend trading or trying to pick bottoms.. short high cover low is also a counter trend trade... take a look each of the 5 break outs KBR has had. each break out has fallen back to some support level before making another new high.... if KBR falls back again for the 6th time, the smart trend trade will be to buy long at support .... the odds favor long only trades when the 50 ma. is sloped up as it is now.... odds are against shorting at this current break out because it would be a counter trend trade.... Yclept's 5,15,50 will never get you in at the bottom, and seldom get you out at an absolute top.... however it will keep you making trades with the highest odds of success.... watch the slope of the 50 period moving average for trading direction..... if the 50ma. is flat, pass on the trade... i'm breaking all these rules by shorting KBR in this weeks pick of the week game.. but i'm not making a trade with real money and i don't suggest anyone counter trend trade with real money.....
Nice post in the previous message. I agree and would like to add to avoid going against the trend unless there are specific reasons to do so on a particular stock. Counter-trend plays can succeed in the short term but don't fight the trend in the longer term.
excerpt from: cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/ both CPC and CPCE are way too low. The signal was formerly an intermediate-term signal, but looks like now it’s only effective for 2 to 3 days, but no matter what, the most important of all, this indicator still works. [a href="http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s185055197]&disp=P"]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s185055197]&disp=P[/a] if next week has a big down day, it's usually is followed by a big up day, this basically means bulls will have plenty of chances to escape... the consensus of the gurus i've read don't expect more than a 1% decline next week, and lately all bearish predictions have been wrong...
"Buy low, Sell high" Sounds like a Hard set, but it is actually subjective.
let's agree to disagree on this one.... in my book there are only two types of trades, counter trend, and trend trades.... the trend trades success depends on the greater fool theory.... counter trend tries to pick tops and bottoms.... counter trend traders don't survive long.... BTW i wish you hadn't moved my joke thread, it's hidden away who knows where now.... thanks
Last Edit: Jan 16, 2011 13:56:14 GMT -5 by majeasy - Back to Top
Majeasy ... Found it! Eureka! ... "When Dreams Come True" now back, should be third thread from the bottom on our board. If you want to add and bring it up ... it is open to post jokes, or whatever. DI has been redeemed, so easy on the lad .
Sense it may be getting near term "toppish", though believe only a minor correction is in store (unless we get some unexpected bad economic news). May be a good time to keep a hold on cash for the time being.
Standard & Poor’s Trendline Oscillator Widely quoted by Jim Cramer & others as one of their favorite market timing tools. Usually referred to simply as “the oscillator.” Calculation is based on a combination of breadth and price. A zero line cross suggests trend change. UPDATED DAILY.
Post by lovetobike on Jan 26, 2011 16:45:54 GMT -5
I think this is an interesting perspective from Jim Jubak for the reaction to the upcoming Unemployment numbers that are coming out Feb 4:
This is an excerpt from his newsletter that I subscribe to:
February 4. A date to watch out for and to, potentially, profit from.
That’s the date that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the non-farm employment figures—the jobs and unemployment rate—for January.
And there’s a good likelihood that for pure statistical—and therefore as far as the actual state of the economy and the jobs market are concerned essentially meaningless—reasons the jobs number and the unemployment rate are going to look bad for January. Even worse than the anemic 103,000 jobs-added number for December.
If you understand why, you might be able to make a few bucks if your fellow investors panic—before they figure out what the data means.
Ready for a trip down the rabbit hole of the way the government calculates unemployment?
In December the unemployment rate fell to 9.4% from 9.8% as the number of people in the workforce fell.
Why did the size of the workforce go down by 260,000 people in the month? Because due to Congressional inaction, unemployment benefits temporarily expired.
The unemployment rate is calculated from an actual survey of households where the government asks the important question “Did you look for work this month?”(The number of people hired or let go is calculated from a survey of employers. There’s nothing to say that the two sets of data have to be consistent.)
Now if you want to collect unemployment payments, you have a strong incentive to answer “yes.” You don’t get an unemployment check if you didn’t look for work. Some folks who answer “yes” lie. Shocking, I know. But I’ve been there (that is unemployed) and in my misguided youth I might have actually fabricated a job search or two in a week when I didn’t actually look for work.
In any case the availability of unemployment payments does tend to add to the number of folks saying “yes” and that, in turn, adds to the number of people in the workforce, according to the household survey.
So what happens when unemployment benefits lapse—with a possibility that they’re gone for the duration?
People lose their incentive to say “yes.” Some people who might have lied, don’t. Some people who really did search for work forget. Others just can’t be bothered to answer.
And since if you haven’t looked for work, as far as the survey is concerned, you’re not in the labor force, then the labor participation rate drops and so does the unemployment rate. I think that’s what happened in December.
And what will happen in January?
Congress finally got around to renewing long-term unemployment benefits for many workers as part of the package that extended the expiring Bush tax cuts.
So more people will have an incentive to say “yes” when asked if they looked for work in January. That will push up the size of the labor force in January and a bigger work force is likely to send the unemployment rate higher for the month.
Post by safeharbor37 on Jan 26, 2011 22:20:55 GMT -5
It looks like the old "Start Investing" board has transformed to a technician's board, but, since it's quoting Jubak, maybe this article won't be out of place. money.msn.com/stock-broker-guided/are-investors-too-bullish-mirhaydari.aspx Anthony Mirhaydari asks, "Are investors too bullish." I think he makes some good points, not technical points but common sense points. So....in case you missed it, just left click the above .
Post by safeharbor37 on Jan 26, 2011 23:35:47 GMT -5
Gotcha. I liked the old Start Investing ~ new investors asked questions that made you think before you could answer, keeping you on your toes ~ I lost touch because of my gig at P&M. Will try to drop by more often now. Regards, Keep up the good work!
Democracy is the worst form of government except for all those others that have been tried. -Winston Churchill, House of Commons 11th of November, 1947.
“The scientific man does not aim at an immediate result. He does not expect that his advanced ideas will be readily taken up… His duty is to lay the foundation for those who are to come, and point the way.” – Nikola Tesla
Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 27, 2011 11:08:41 GMT -5
Post by livinincali on Jan 27, 2011 11:35:03 GMT -5
Very interesting perspective on the unemployment rate. Just how would one play the anomaly in the data?
I've always thought the unemployment rate is understated because it's a land line telephone survey and one of the things I can envision a unemployed person to do is cut off the land line. It's a lot cheaper to use a pre paid cell phone than pay a land line month after month. Therefore I would guess that there's a somewhat larger set of people that work that are able to participate in the phone survey. I've always believed we should report unemployment based on income tax collection because frankly that's the only thing that really matters in the economy. How many people are paying income tax and how much they are getting paid is a much better basis for a government sponsored unemployment rate. I know you miss people getting paid under the table but does it really matter. Those people might not say their working to a government phone survey anyways.
As Egypt continues to "boil" and worries of that the unrest may spread to other North African and Middle East countries with similar problems, the market may be in for some good sized "dip" near term until things settle down. Concern over the Suez Canal for oil traffic is cited by some. Add all this to the fragile nature of the whole area, and there is good reason for concern. How bad this gets still remains moot. Red flags are flying, that's for sure. Good luck to all in implementing any quick exit strategy if appropriate.
Nobody honestly should "overreact", just be cautious, and deal with the situation that best fits their individual position. Following a panicked crowd is not a good idea. Yes, DI, the "gold bugs" may use this as an excuse to drive up the price of gold (if they can). and oil prices may also rise, but the world keeps on a-turning. No panic, just adjust as appropriate as things play out. It may be over in few days. Certainly not the end of the world (YET) 12/21/12 ?
Post by safeharbor37 on Feb 1, 2011 15:36:20 GMT -5
Stocks up again today [thus far]. I guess that the Egyptian crisis, etc. isn't damping the market's enthusiasm. "i hope i am wrong because if the euro tanks the dollar rises " ~ I'm presuming that you aren't planning a European trip anytime soon. I'm still predicting that the markets will end higher this year, but with at least one dip between now and then.