rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 21, 2011 8:39:26 GMT -5
re: Apple (AAPL) I'm going with my feeble memory on this post so there may be some errors. A few months ago a random survey was performed via phone about the yet to be released iPhone 5. The result was that 32% (or 38%) of those contacted said they would buy the iPhone 5 when it was released. Apple Set to Unveil iPhone 5 on Oct. 4, Sources Say
Published September 21, 2011
CUPERTINO, Calif. – Apple was expected to hold its next big media event on Oct. 4, where the tech giant was set to unveil the next iteration of its popular iPhone, AllThingsDigital reported Wednesday, citing sources close to the situation.
Although Apple could change its plans at any time, sources said the date was selected by the Cupertino, Calif.-based company to showcase the iPhone 5.
Apple's plan was to make the new device available for purchase within a few weeks after the announcement, sources added.
While the iPhone 5 was a highly-anticipated handset, the media event itself has a lot more importance for Apple than many others as it will be newly-installed CEO Tim Cook's first big product introduction.
The reason Cook was set to preside over the rollout was that the launch event will mark the first time the public and investors will be able to get a lengthy impression of Cook as Apple CEO, which could set the tone for his new role, according to sources.
Apple's legendary outgoing CEO and co-founder Steve Jobs has always been closely identified with Apple and its product innovations -- the Mac, the iPod, the iPhone and more recently the iPad. Since his decision to step down was announced in August, many investors expressed fears his departure would change the company.Read more: www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/21/apple-set-to-unveil-iphone-5-on-oct-4-sources-say/#ixzz1YatUv1jARead more: www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/21/apple-set-to-unveil-iphone-5-on-oct-4-sources-say/#ixzz1YatK9DPM
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2kids10horses
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Post by 2kids10horses on Sept 21, 2011 8:58:32 GMT -5
rovo,
My iphone4 is great, and I really can't imagine how they could improve it. But, I'm sure they have. If, and it's a big IF, they announce the ip5 has LTE capability, AAPL will shoot straight to $600. I don't expect that, however. From everything I have heard thecurrent LTE chips consume too much power for Apple right now.
But, if there has been some super secret production of LTE chips that Apple puts into the next iphone, well, it will be beyond incredible. Write in Steve Jobs for President!
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Sept 21, 2011 10:27:39 GMT -5
For rovo and other following AAPL stock would you consider buying TSM (a maker of apple mobile product components) as a possible outperform versus Apple just because of it's lack of name recognition. TSM pays a 3.40% dividend, AAPL doesn't pay anything. TSM has a lower trailing PE by about 5 points. 11.79 versus 16.50. TSM earnings growth 2009 vs 2010 is better than AAPL. Nearly 100% growth in earnings versus AAPL's ~80%.
What do you think. I don't see a big red flag expect that future expectations by analysts aren't nearly as optimistic as AAPLs. Seems like a good way to ride to AAPL euphoria in a slightly safer manner. You're getting AAPLs sales but you're not getting all the speculation hype premium.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 21, 2011 11:55:05 GMT -5
Cali, Just recently TSM has supposedly been selected to produce the A4 and A5 chips for Apple. While they may had some semis in the current versions of the iPhone and iPad, the production of the processors will be a big revenue boost for them. Previously and currently the processors are produced by Samsung but Apple and Samsung are battling it out against each other in the phone market.
TSM is basically a semi foundry. Very few TSM branded products, just production for others. The foundries have thrived when the semi industry is busy but they suffer greatly when semis slump and some of their business is pulled back to the OEMs wafer fabs. The snagging of Apple's processor production should give them a steady stream of revenue going forward. TSM looks like a fairly safe bet at the current share price with possibly 50% appreciation within 6 months if they snag the Apple deal.
I still think Apple will eventually partner with Intel for the next generation of Apple's processors. The combination of Apple's volume and Intel's new 3-D transistor could be very beneficial to both companies. Time frame for this is about a year to 18 months. Nothing reported on this item as this is just my opinion.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 21, 2011 12:11:20 GMT -5
Took a quick look at TSM earnings and expectations.
2009 -14% YOY (actual) 2010 +88% YOY (actual) 2011 -12% YOY (expected) 2012 +11% YOY (expected)
Earnings (US $) Year .......... Q1 .......... Q2 .......... Q3 .......... Q4
2008 ........ 0.17 ....... 0.18 ........ 0.19 ....... 0.07 2009 ........ 0.01 ....... 0.14 ........ 0.18 ....... 0.19 2010 ........ 0.20 ....... 0.24 ........ 0.28 ....... 0.26 2011 ........ 0.24 ....... 0.24 ........ 0.19E ..... 0.19E 2012 ........ 0.19E ..... 0.22E ....... 0.27E...... 0.28E
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 21, 2011 12:38:14 GMT -5
No Korean Red Carpet for the iPhone 5
By Evan Niu ......... September 19, 2011
Millions of consumers, industry pundits, and Wall Street analysts aren't the only ones already eagerly awaiting Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL ) upcoming iPhone 5. Apple supplier and patent dueling partner Samsung is already planning an offensive on the yet-unreleased device, according to The Korea Times. Once the iPhone 5 is released on Sammy's South Korean home turf, it will meet a patently cold reception, at least from Samsung. The report quotes an unnamed Samsung senior executive claiming, "Just after the arrival of the iPhone 5 here, Samsung plans to take Apple to court here for its violation of Samsung's wireless technology related patents." The executive continues that "for as long as Apple does not drop mobile telecommunications functions, it would be impossible for it to sell its i-branded products without using our patents." Translation: "We will sue if the iPhone 5 is a phone." I'm no telecommunications engineer, but I think it's safe to say the iPhone 5 will be a phone. Irony abounds, as chances are good that Samsung will supply a considerable portion of the components used in the iPhone 5. We won't know for sure until it's released and torn apart at the hands of the determined technicians at iFixit, iSuppli, and Chipworks, among others. The current iPhone 4 attributes roughly 26% of its component cost to Samsung for critical parts such as flash memory and DRAM memory. Apple's custom ARM Holdings (Nasdaq: ARMH ) -based A5 chip, which is currently in the iPad 2 and logically should be included in the iPhone 5, is fabbed in Samsung foundries, although the next two generations are rumored to shift to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM ) . The tally of pending patent suits between Apple and Samsung is upwards of 23, spanning around the globe from the United States to Europe to Japan, with no sign of slowing down. If successful, Samsung would be blocking a product that is built with its own ingredients. South Korean consumers would be collateral damage, since the iPhone is hugely popular in their nation. With Apple's recent German victory and Galaxy Tab 10.1 injunction, the current score count sits at Apple 1, Samsung 0, which reads more like a Brazilian soccer game than an escalating global patent war. Add Apple to your Watchlist to keep abreast as the skirmishes continue to unfold.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 21, 2011 12:46:19 GMT -5
Apple Finds New Playmates
By Anders Bylund ..... September 19, 2011
A fresh report from Taiwanese tech newspaper DigiTimes says that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL ) is about to shift its chip-making orders out of Samsung. Orders for Apple's next-generation A6 processor are now expected to go to leading contract chipper Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM ) instead. According to IHS iSuppli, the current A5 chip found in the iPad 2 costs Apple about $14 apiece, and the last-generation A4 adds about $11 per iPhone 4 or iPad 1. There are licensing fees to ARM Holdings (Nasdaq: ARMH ) to be considered in Apple's total chip cost, but most of the total is direct revenue to Samsung. Since Apple designed these chips in-house and treats Samsung as a simple third-party manufacturer, there are no middlemen grabbing slices of this revenue stream. Considering that Apple sold 20 million iPhones and 9 million iPads last quarter, this adds up to at least a couple hundred million dollars of easy sales for Taiwan Semi. It's a welcome boost for a company that reported sales of $3.7 billion USD last quarter -- perhaps reaching into double-digit territory if the terms of this supposed Apple deal are right. Conversely, Samsung's chip sales office must be a gloomy place on a day like this. Not that anybody should be shocked by this move. As if to highlight the deep rift between these increasingly rivaling tech giants, Samsung filed motions today to ban sales of the upcoming iPhone 5 in South Korea. The duo is butting heads in American, German, and Australian courts, just to name a few cases. An eternal partnership looks less likely every day. Mind you, Taiwan Semi is far from the only game in town. Former Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD ) division Global Foundries would have been more than happy to serve Apple's needs, for example. That service happens to be part of the IBM (NYSE: IBM ) alliance of chip-making technology researchers, and that agglomerate recently shared some big little news. Using a special glue developed by unlikely high-tech hero 3M (NYSE: MMM ) , these guys should soon be able to stack chip layers on top of each other as much as 100 layers deep rather than spreading out horizontally. The space savings and suggested performance boosts of this technology would be invaluable to a mobile gadget of the future like the iPhone 6 or iPad 4. But you know who else is part of that alliance? Yep -- Samsung. So it's off to Taiwan we go. I'm sure that Intel (Nasdaq: INTC ) also made its top-shelf manufacturing services available, but perhaps not on the terms Cupertino wanted. Taiwan Semiconductor just might be the next Intel.
At this point the expected production shift is a RUMOR and it has not been confirmed.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 21, 2011 13:13:40 GMT -5
OFF TOPIC
Looking through files for data on TSM, I came across articles on the newest semiconductor fabrication plants (FABS). I had to chuckle a bit when I saw the size, diameter, of the latest wafers going into production soon. The fabs are up-grading from 300mm (12") wafers to 450mm (17.7").
When I entered the field the wafer diameter was an amazing 50mm or roughly 2". I still have a couple of 2" wafers stashed away somewhere in my junk from a tour of the ITT Semiconductor fab in Florida. This was an employment opportunity back in 1970.
My kid brother used to work in a silicon ingot pulling facility in the mid 70s (I think). I don't recall what diameter he was working with. (Maybe he can add a comment or two if he reads this.) I think the facility he worked at was eventually sold to National Semiconductor. Back then, pulling silicon was as much an art as science and required lots of human intervention. I'm quite certain the pulling is fully automated today. It is hard for me to fathom pulling an 18" diameter silicon ingot from the crucible. The entire crystal must be huge, several feet long, 18" in diameter, and weight several hundred pounds.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Sept 21, 2011 14:53:58 GMT -5
I could see AAPL going with INTC as some point but I'm not sure AAPL wants to be a guinea pig for INTCs first attempt at being successful in the mobile processor space. INTC has executed well recently but chip design seems to have it's fair share of failures. AMD really busted INTC chops in the early 2000's, only to have INTC catch up and surpass them. AAPL just can't afford a failed design, their heavily based on reputation of quality to get the prices they get for their products. I'm just looking at TSM as a fairly short term play. If AAPL falters I'll bail but until then I just feel safer riding the mobile wave in something that's a little more under the radar and less widely held. AAPL could get hit because a fund or bank made a bad bet on Europe and has to sell a winner to cover a loss.
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2kids10horses
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Post by 2kids10horses on Sept 21, 2011 18:26:52 GMT -5
cali,
As I understand it, Apple designs the chips in-house, and contracts out the manufacturing (or fabrication I believe it's called.)
INTC, from what I've been led to believe feels that it's "value" is in its designs, and really does not want to be a contract fabricator.
There's the rub. Apple wants to design, but not fabricate. INTC wants to fabricate only its own designs.
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Post by yclept on Sept 21, 2011 21:37:29 GMT -5
I just have to interrupt this program for the following message: I get scared when I see you in AAPL. AAPL market cap: $382 B XOM market cap: $350 B
XOM explores, extracts, refines fuels that the entire world needs (not wants). Employees: 83,600 AAPL sells toys. They don't make them, they just design and sell them. Nobody needs any AAPL product and there are plenty of competitors hot on their heels. Employees: 46,600
It takes more than half as many employees to design and make the toys as it does to provide fuel to a significant part of the world.
You will never convince me that there isn't something seriously wrong here. It doesn't pass the "sniff test". XOM may be somewhat undervalued, but the majority of the imbalance is obviously in AAPL being horrendously overvalued.
Take your money and run. Let someone else be holding this bag when the inevitable happens. That's my opinion. But then I've been telling people that gold is a nearly useless metal for a long time and bound to fall precipitously, so my opinion is often wrong.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Sept 22, 2011 10:30:18 GMT -5
I thought ARM Holding produced the A4 and A5 processors. AAPL may have had design input but I don't think they have the engineering team or experience to design a processor from scratch. QCOM snapdragon that is used in a lot of Android devices is also based on ARM architecture. The ARM design was a great choice for mobile devices because of it's low power consumption. AMD and INTC have trended towards faster and more power hungry until the last 3 years. I'm sure INTC will come up with something for the mobile platform and it might beat ARM but it's probably a couple years away and I think Apple will likely stick with ARM for at least the next generation. IPhone5 this year IPhone5 LTE next year, then IPhone 6 2-3 years from now. IPhone7 or some new integrated mobile multimedia device 4-5 years from now could have INTC tech. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARM_architecture
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 22, 2011 11:07:49 GMT -5
It is my understanding the Apple processors are designed by Apple based on the ARM architecture. As such, they pay royalties to ARM for using the basic ARM design.
Intel does not currently make an ARM based processor, nor is there any reason for them to so in the "Desk-Top" or "Notebook" market place. Intel has tried several times to build less powerful processors but the devices have not met wide acceptance in the marketplace.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 22, 2011 11:15:03 GMT -5
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARM_architectureARM is a 32-bit reduced instruction set computer (RISC) instruction set architecture (ISA) developed by ARM Holdings. It was known as the Advanced RISC Machine, and before that as the Acorn RISC Machine. The ARM architecture is the most widely used 32-bit ISA in terms of numbers produced.[1][2] Originally conceived by Acorn Computers for use in its personal computers, the first ARM-based products were the Acorn Archimedes range introduced in 1987. The relative simplicity of ARM processors makes them suitable for low power applications. As a result, they have become dominant in the mobile and embedded electronics market, as relatively low-cost, small microprocessors and microcontrollers. In 2005, about 98% of the more than one billion mobile phones sold each year used at least one ARM processor.[3] As of 2009, ARM processors account for approximately 90% of all embedded 32-bit RISC processors[4] and are used extensively in consumer electronics, including PDAs, mobile phones, digital media and music players, hand-held game consoles, calculators and computer peripherals such as hard drives and routers. The ARM architecture is licensable. Companies that are current or former ARM licensees include Alcatel-Lucent, Apple Inc., Atmel, Broadcom, Cirrus Logic, Digital Equipment Corporation, Freescale, Intel (through DEC), LG, Marvell Technology Group, Microsoft, NEC, Nintendo, Nuvoton, Nvidia, Sony, NXP (previously Philips), Oki, ON Semiconductor, Qualcomm, Samsung, Sharp, STMicroelectronics, Symbios Logic, Texas Instruments, VLSI Technology, Yamaha and ZiiLABS. ARM processors are developed by ARM and by ARM licensees. Prominent ARM processor families developed by ARM Holdings include the ARM7, ARM9, ARM11 and Cortex. Notable ARM processors developed by licensees include DEC StrongARM, Freescale i.MX, Marvell (formerly Intel) XScale, Nvidia Tegra, ST-Ericsson Nova and NovaThor, Qualcomm Snapdragon, the Texas Instruments OMAP product line, the Samsung Hummingbird and the Apple A4 and A5.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 22, 2011 13:01:59 GMT -5
I sold off all of my holdings in TBT today for 19.xx and took a very large hit on this play. I see TBT as hopeless going forward as the FED has stated it wants to lower the interest rate on long term treasuries. Doing so directly affects TBT negatively, so it was time to part ways and eat the loses before the loses became even greater.
This action brings my cash position up to where I wanted it.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 22, 2011 22:26:49 GMT -5
It was a very unusual day in the markets today in my opinion. I expected some problems after the FED announcement yesterday but nothing of the magnitude we saw today. Actually I think the market has it wrong, possibly a little panic selling, then the machines kicked in, then margin calls occurred, rinse and repeat.
I see the Fed announcement as being positive to the stock market. Short term treasuries are yielding almost nothing, long term are, or were, yielding 3% but with the new expectation of 1% to 2% after the Fed announcement. This action should bring all longer term rates down, making mortgages cheaper, longer term business loans at a cheaper rate, and new corporate bonds cheaper to issue.
The safe haven bonds will have such miserable returns that anyone wanting a little more yield will be turning to dividend paying stocks. This should increase demand for stocks and the stock prices should appreciate accordingly. That's the way I see it.
I say give it a few days and see where the market goes. Tomorrow will probably be very rocky but I do think it will calm down and start heading upward in a short period of time.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 22, 2011 22:29:40 GMT -5
OFF TOPIC but important. www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44629271/ns/technology_and_science-science/?gt1=43001Excerpt. Neutrinos clocked moving at faster-than-light speed
CERN scientists ask for confirmation of discovery that could rewrite laws of nature
By Frank Jordans and Seth Borenstein ..... updated 9/22/2011 5:40:39 PM ET
GENEVA — A pillar of physics — that nothing can go faster than the speed of light — appears to be smashed by an oddball subatomic particle that has apparently made a giant end run around Albert Einstein's theories.
Scientists at the world's largest physics lab said Thursday they have clocked neutrinos traveling faster than light. That's something that according to Einstein's 1905 special theory of relativity — the famous E (equals) mc2 equation — just doesn't happen.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 22, 2011 22:35:53 GMT -5
I figured I better check the futures before retiring for the night and what do I find?
Futures for all the indexes are green.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 23, 2011 9:51:53 GMT -5
How about a little sunshine in a pretty bleak market.
Tune out the fear and panic .......... 8:45a ET September 23, 2011 (MarketWatch) NEW YORK
The world is ending. You heard me. Europe is going to default. The U.S. will go into a depression, the dollar will shrink to nothing, Congress and Barack Obama will continue to fight in the Coliseum while us citizens shout and roar from the stands, and stocks will go down forever. To zero maybe.
All of that rioting that is in Libya will spread like a "contagion" to here. And in 13 billion years, the perimeter of the sun will be so wide it will suck us in, a cold dark Earth, a shadow of what it once was.
Do I worry? Me? Mr. "Dow 20,000?" Of course I do. I get worried that people will believe the lies listed above that are spread every day. The newspapers have to report the worries. That's a reasonable function; awareness is important. But then you have major responsibilities that most people forget: Analysis and Action. You need to look at the data and decide what is real and what is now. Then take action to make money.
Let's look at some basic facts:
A) The top eight banks in the United States have almost $1 trillion in capital and only $54 billion in exposure to the weakest Euro zone nations. Let them all default. Doesn't bother us.
B) In 1981-2, almost all of South America defaulted. The top eight banks then had 263% of their capital exposed to South America, based on accounting rules in place then. Guess what? We had a 20-year boom after that.
C) Is Europe a Lehman? One big difference (other than the obvious one I just mentioned: The banks in 2008 were subject to the brand new mark-to-market rule. Now they don't have to mark to market. They can make an assumption ("Europe will pay back eventually") and not have to mark things down as quickly. Guess when the mark to market rule was eliminated? March 2009 -- the bottom of the market.
D) We've had eight straight quarters of GDP growth. Well, what if next quarter there is no growth? Impossible. Just the return of Japan to some degree of normalcy will guarantee growth.
E) The government is going to cut a lot of jobs. Won't that reduce GDP? Definitely not. Look at 1945. The government eliminated 10 million (!) jobs when the soldiers returned. I don't recall the Great Depression of 1945, do you?
F) Housing starts are down while existing home sales are up 18% year over year. You know what that means? Supply is going down while demand is going up. I look forward to housing prices going up over the next year considerably. Particularly with rents up 30% on the past three years in some parts of the country, like New York City.
G) Traffic to fedex.com is my favorite leading indicator. It dipped a little at the market bottom and when Japan reduced manufacturing output by 15%. Now it's coming back. We'll see the result of that in this and next quarter's GDP results. You can run the same chart on ups.com.
That, in a tiny nutshell that I can expand if you want, is the macro view. Let's look at the micro view:
A) No matter what happens in Greece, or even in the United States, with 12x earnings and $80 billion in cash will release another iPhone, another iPad, another Mac, and then repeat all through next year. They are continuing to change computing and regardless of the state of the economy, the lines will be around the corner when they release the next iPad. Despite all of our worries, consumer spending is up 2% year over year. So AAPL is a buy. And I keep my $1,500 price target on it.
B) Exxon Mobil is just beginning a wonderful new phase for the United States and the world. You've heard of peak oil theory -- the idea that the easy oil has all been drilled and we will run out. It's a true theory. BUT, the definition of "easy" is changing because of cheaper and cheaper advances in the technology of fracking. XOM bought XTO, the leader in fracking, which can drill 3,000 feet down through solid rock, drill sideways, break up previously hard rocks, and get the oil up. Cheaper than ever. And it will only get cheaper. The U.S. is the new Saudi Arabia over the next 10 years. And XOM is dirt cheap.
C) Wal-Mart Stores. Forget that WMT has been the best run company for 40 years straight. WMT is about to do for healthcare what AAPL is doing for computing. Imagine every WMT with a cheap healthcare clinic. They won't do surgery on you there. But they will treat your colds, your flus, prescribe medicines, get your glasses, etc. Forget ObamaCare. The new cheap healthcare is WalmartCare, where it always should've been -- in the private sector.
D) Amazon.com. I went to a Borders sale the other day; 90% off because of the going out of business sale. Barnes & Noble is next. I already read almost all of my books on a Kindle. And the Kindle tablet, if it has good browsing and videos, will be a viable competitor for AAPL.
E) Google. I've argued this one before. It's just the best company in the world.
All of the above five stocks are priced at very low multiples over earnings. Even if the Dow Jones Industrial Average (horrors) gets cut in half, the $80 billion in cash that AAPL has provides a great cushion, for instance. I always look at risk versus reward.
Two more macro items:
Zynga and Facebook are going to herald in the return of the IPO. And when they have IPOs they will have currency to acquire other companies, which will fuel VC investments, which will create jobs, etc.
You don't need full employment for the stock market to go up. They are uncorrelated (as exemplified by consumer spending being at an all time high)
Awareness. Analysis. Action.
Don't even listen to me. Do your own research. You won't be as scared as the market suggests. Let the market be afraid while you be smart.
James Altucher is managing director of Formula Capital and the author of six books. He's written for the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Forbes and many other publications. He's built and sold two businesses. He does not own individual stocks mentioned in this column.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Sept 23, 2011 10:13:28 GMT -5
Altucher is the biggest permabull in the world. He's right when the market goes up, he's wrong when the market goes down. Of course that's probably a better track record than most who says buy buy buy when we're at the top and sell sell sell when we're at the bottom.
I do agree that the faster we let everything default and reset the sooner we'll be better off. Posting the inevitable we'll put us down the path of Japan and a grinding bear market.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 23, 2011 10:25:54 GMT -5
I found this item while checking on the news for Ford (F). All is not well in the auto world with regards to Chrysler's negotiations with the UAW. I expect the UAW to ask President Obama for help. I'm sure he will supply the incentive for Chrysler to give in to the UAW. AP Sources: Chrysler-UAW talks break down ....... September 22, 2011 9:09 PM ET ...... By TOM KRISHER
DETROIT (AP) - Negotiations over a new four-year contract between Chrysler and the United Auto Workers have broken down as both sides refuse to budge on key financial issues, two people briefed on the bargaining said Thursday.
The talks ended late Wednesday in a dispute over the number of workers who are paid an entry-level wage, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the negotiations are private.
Chrysler Group LLC, which is losing money, wants no limit on cheaper entry-level workers. The union wants a cap on the number of those workers, who make $14 to $16 an hour, about half of what a longtime union employee earns.
"There was a line drawn in the sand," one of the people said. "Somebody's going to have to give."
Chrysler factories continue to operate under a contract extension.money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20110922&id=14301095
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 23, 2011 10:28:24 GMT -5
Cali, I believe the truth is always somewhere between the permabulls and the permabears. I don't agree with all in the article but I was just offering something to show that not everyone thinks the world is ending (besides myself).
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 23, 2011 11:07:43 GMT -5
I'm no expert on interpreting charts but I try my best to use them for short term plays. I was looking at the chart of SLV (silver) and it appears the support level was at $32. Currently SLV is at $31.42, so it appears to me that silver has broken through the support and will probably decline further.
Maybe cali could offer an opinion since he is much better at the charts than I am.
I'm holding a small position in ZSL and it is still under water but getting close to the break even point. SLV was at $33 when I purchase ZSL and now that SLV is well below that point, one may have expected ZSL to be in the green. This would be a false premise because ZSL, being a -2X ETF, there is a degrading factor due to the use of futures/options to generate the -2X factor. It now appears SLV will have to decline to about $28 before I am in the green with ZSL.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Sept 23, 2011 17:41:39 GMT -5
It was a very unusual day in the markets today in my opinion. I expected some problems after the FED announcement yesterday but nothing of the magnitude we saw today. Actually I think the market has it wrong, possibly a little panic selling, then the machines kicked in, then margin calls occurred, rinse and repeat. I see the Fed announcement as being positive to the stock market. Short term treasuries are yielding almost nothing, long term are, or were, yielding 3% but with the new expectation of 1% to 2% after the Fed announcement. This action should bring all longer term rates down, making mortgages cheaper, longer term business loans at a cheaper rate, and new corporate bonds cheaper to issue. The safe haven bonds will have such miserable returns that anyone wanting a little more yield will be turning to dividend paying stocks. This should increase demand for stocks and the stock prices should appreciate accordingly. That's the way I see it. I say give it a few days and see where the market goes. Tomorrow will probably be very rocky but I do think it will calm down and start heading upward in a short period of time. Capitulation. If we get through Monday it's onward and upward Rovo.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Sept 23, 2011 18:00:59 GMT -5
I think our underlying economy is stronger than people think. Call me an eternal optimist but if the economy picks up speed and congress gets it's act together we will detach somewhat from Europe.
In the Pa/NJ area I don't see a stark slowdown like 2008.
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Sept 24, 2011 8:54:53 GMT -5
The long lines at soup kitchens and apple cart sellers are not here like the 1930s depressionary period. So at least that is encouraging. Agree, it probably can be avoided with the correct political policies and some "business sense" developing in D.C.
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The Virginian
Senior Member
"Formal education makes you a living, self education makes you a fortune."
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 18:05:58 GMT -5
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Today's Mood: Cautiously Optimistic
Location: Somewhere between Virginia & Florida !
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Post by The Virginian on Sept 24, 2011 15:13:58 GMT -5
Post # 972 above is a great post Rovo.
Although I think Facebook is going to be big when they do their IPO and I concur with your conclusions, I am not convinced of their long term future. In the Tech World fads come and go quickly and I remember only a couple of years ago Myspace was all the rage.
I just can't bring myself to invest in what I believe is a Fad, I could be wrong as is often the case but I have to follow my instincts.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Sept 26, 2011 7:44:52 GMT -5
If the following is confirmed, then it could indicate a slowing in the sales of the Apple iPad.
Apple Trims Orders for IPad Parts: JPMorgan ... By Bloomberg News - Sep 26, 2011 7:27 AM ET Apple Inc. is cutting orders to vendors in the supply chain for its iPad tablet computer, a move that may result in slower sales for companies including Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report.
Several supply-chain vendors indicated in the past two weeks that Apple lowered fourth-quarter iPad orders 25 percent, the first such cut that analysts at JPMorgan’s electronic manufacturing services team in Hong Kong said they have ever seen. The report didn’t list the affected companies, and Gokul Hariharan, one of the report’s authors, said he couldn’t comment when reached by Bloomberg News today.
For a vendor such as Hon Hai, the cut could mean a drop to 13 million units in the fourth quarter from 17 million units in the third quarter, JPMorgan analysts wrote in the Sept. 25 report. The report said JPMorgan U.S. analyst Mark Moskowitz, who covers Apple, does not expect to lower his projection of 10.9 million to 12 million units of iPad shipments in the third and fourth quarters after the supply chain adjustments.
Reduced orders from Apple to iPad suppliers could reflect both weakening demand in Europe due to economic conditions there as well as a strategy by Apple, the world’s biggest company by market value, to operate with reduced inventory, Wanli Wang, a Taipei-based industry analyst at RBS Asia Ltd., said today.
“It’s back to reality,” Wang said. “Now it seems even for Apple, due to the market situation, we need to be conservative.”
No Confirmation
So far there is no confirmation from Apple that it has reduced orders to suppliers, Wang said. Carolyn Wu, a Beijing- based spokeswoman for Apple, didn’t respond to calls for comment on the report today.
Edmund Ding, spokesman for Hon Hai, didn’t respond to an e- mail or answer calls to his Taiwan and China mobile phones.
Shares of the Cupertino, California-based iPad maker fell 1.5 percent to the equivalent of $400 at 1:25 p.m. in German trading. The stock rose 0.6 percent to $404.30 on the Nasdaq Stock Market on Sept. 23.
Apple’s iPad may account for 73 percent of tablet computer sales this year, according to research firm Gartner Inc. Products that run on Google Inc.’s Android operating system, including Samsung Electronics Co.’s Galaxy tablets, will probably have about 17 percent of the market, Gartner said in a Sept. 22 note.
Because of its current dominant market position, Apple doesn’t have to rush to introduce its iPad 3 tablet computer as potential rivals have failed to emerge to siphon sales from the current model, JPMorgan’s Moskowitz wrote in a Sept. 16 report.
Amazon.com Inc. may release a product late this year that could become the number-two tablet in the market behind the iPad, Moskowitz wrote in that report.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Sept 26, 2011 11:05:51 GMT -5
SLV chart looks to be in a down trend but there is a decent possibility of a bounce from current levels. The 50% retracement of the 2009 low and a rising trend line converge of the current area of 28-29. Clear break below 28 would open up the door for more downside. I do agree that previous suppose resistance was somewhere around the 32-32.50 area. Trading back above that level would probably be considered bullish. I probably wouldn't enter a SLV trade now but if I was already short I'd hold it until we close above 32.50. If we break 28 significantly on the downside I'd add to shorts.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Sept 26, 2011 11:07:43 GMT -5
"The long lines at soup kitchens and apple cart sellers are not here like the 1930s depressionary period. So at least that is encouraging. Agree, it probably can be avoided with the correct political policies and some "business sense" developing in D.C. "
They didn't have SNAP back then. There's 40 million on food stamps we just don't see them unless you go to walmart at midnight on the last day of the month.
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