Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Jun 24, 2011 13:05:30 GMT -5
Found an article that I thought was interesting. It talks about how some industries are dying or dead. I'm not opposed to industries dying as that's just part of the capitalist system. It's when you get government meddling you have a problem. It seems the chief reasons for the decline if these industries is cheap labor from abroad and technology. One of the industries I was surprised to not see on the list was travel agencies. With sites like travelocity, priceline and others it's easier than ever to research and book your own trips, plains, and hotels without needing a travel agent. I would think travel agencies would be going the way of the dinosaur. finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/112946/doomed-industries-bnet
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 24, 2011 13:13:25 GMT -5
Manufactured homes could make a come-back when housing prices rise up again.
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Jun 24, 2011 13:23:32 GMT -5
My mom is an insurance agent for a small agency, and she's been feeling the pressure from sites like Progressive, Geico, etc. Kind of like Dunder Mifflin vs. Office Max.
We watched a video in one of my sociology classes called "The Future Of Work", IIRC... the message was essentially that in another 20-30 years, technology will have evolved such that only about half the population will be able to find a job. One example is the automatic checkouts at grocery stores. Interesting to think about... especially since the jobs left aren't necessarily high-paying enough to support a family (assuming it would be rare for both spouses to be able to find a job).
I also read that Best Buy is planning to sublease space in most of the larger stores. I think the advent of the internet has really crippled big box stores - the article joked that Best Buy was "Amazon's Showroom".
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 24, 2011 13:24:05 GMT -5
Maybe "doomed" is the wrong word for many of the businesses in the article. I'm not arguing that there will be fewer of them around, but rather the ones that do make it will need to specialize, they'll need to find a niche and fill it.
I think "travel agents" will go the "niche" route too - to coordinating group trips - Destination Weddings for example or handling all the travel arrangements for a client base of businesses. The agent(s) will specialize they won't handle individuals travel plans as their bread and butter.
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telephus44
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Post by telephus44 on Jun 24, 2011 13:26:08 GMT -5
I'm kind of surprised that mailing isn't on the list. I work for an envelope manufacturer, and mailings have been going downhill for a long time....
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MN-Investor
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Post by MN-Investor on Jun 24, 2011 13:26:21 GMT -5
We watched a video in one of my sociology classes called "The Future Of Work", IIRC... the message was essentially that in another 20-30 years, technology will have evolved such that only about half the population will be able to find a job. I have the feeling that the same type of predictions were being made back when the industrial revolution happened.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 24, 2011 13:28:21 GMT -5
technology will have evolved such that only about half the population will be able to find a job. Isn't that kind of the "dream" from the olden days - technology would make for less work so us humans could spend more time doing fun/meaningful stuff? The Space Age! I.G.Y.! People living in peace with lots of free time.
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Jun 24, 2011 13:32:49 GMT -5
"I'm kind of surprised that mailing isn't on the list. I work for an envelope manufacturer, and mailings have been going downhill for a long time...."
Yeah, the postal service has had declining mail volume for a long time. They were talking about eliminating saturday delivery.
You're right midwesternjd, you don't see many mom and pop insurance companies anymore. And Best buy is the only big box nationwide electronics retailer I know of. I know they have fry's electronics in the midwest, but circuit city went out of business, at least their brick and morter stores did. I think Best buy is overpriced on a lot of things, I can get things off of amazon or newegg.com for a lot cheaper.
"I think "travel agents" will go the "niche" route too - to coordinating group trips - Destination Weddings for example or handling all the travel arrangements for a client base of businesses. The agent(s) will specialize they won't handle individuals travel plans as their bread and butter."
You're probably right. In the government we do hire travel agents as contracters to maintain our travel system.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 24, 2011 13:34:27 GMT -5
I also read that Best Buy is planning to sublease space in most of the larger stores. The economy and overbuilding may have hurt the Big Box stores as well. I read that Best Buy had 'exhausted' the Big Box Store growth market (ie suburbias stopped expanding with Housing Bubble pop) and was looking to open smaller stores in already developed areas (meaning only smaller stores/land parcels are available) focusing more on Cell Phones/home computers/mobile services. The smaller stores would have a small selection of appliances but the customer would have to order what they wanted and arrange a delivery date (from the warehouse). I think the advent of the internet has really crippled big box stores - the article joked that Best Buy was "Amazon's Showroom" It will be interesting to see what happens if/when some way to collect sales taxes on internet shopping is enforced. Although I think the Big Retailers do collect/charge tax when you use their site. Internet shopping is so Last Century, I prefer to shop IRL now...
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Jun 24, 2011 13:35:44 GMT -5
"Isn't that kind of the "dream" from the olden days - technology would make for less work so us humans could spend more time doing fun/meaningful stuff? The Space Age! I.G.Y.! People living in peace with lots of free time"
This article got me thinking about that too, though more philisophical. With the technology available we need fewer workers who can produce more work, so that means unemployment will rise and the standard of living will actually fall. Unless we change how we do things like provide housing and food to people.
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Jun 24, 2011 13:37:53 GMT -5
I'm also surprised booksellers didn't make the list. I remember one major bookseller declaring bankruptcy recently.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 24, 2011 13:39:58 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm kinda surprised about "mail" not being on the list either. I was out of town for 7 days and had a friend watch the cats. She's old school - really old school and kept assuring me that she'd collect my mail and even sort out the obvious junk mail if I wanted. I was, like, don't worry about it - it's all junk mail - just feed/water/scoop the cats! I don't get anything important via Snail Mail - it's all electronic. She looked at me like I had two heads. I had a pile of Junk Mail/store flyers/catalogs when I came home - not one piece of "important" mail.
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stats45
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Post by stats45 on Jun 24, 2011 13:41:19 GMT -5
This would be really obsolete, but as of six months ago there was a consistently open VCR and TV repair store in a strip mall where one of my favorite restaurants was located.
We always joked that it had to be some kind of criminal money laundering front.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 24, 2011 13:41:40 GMT -5
Someone has to service all of those machines. Sure, half the population of today could find work - but look at how many people would actually be employable if you time traveled to 1960 and brought back the population. Not a single person knew how to open email or use Excel or even Word. In 50 years, the cashiers of today will just have to get enough training to know how to service the machines that will replace them.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 24, 2011 13:52:43 GMT -5
In 50 years, the cashiers of today will just have to get enough training to know how to service the machines that will replace them. Gawd... now you got me thinking about Red Dwarf... heh...
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stats45
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Post by stats45 on Jun 24, 2011 13:54:37 GMT -5
I agree with thyme. With automated cash registers for example, you lose some low-level service jobs and gain some technical positions. Fewer jobs replace the new jobs, but productivity is higher in the new, more skilled positions.
The problem is what happens to people who are shifted out of this employment. The people who work as cashiers are often not the people who start new businesses or who started training for the skills the would need in the newly created positions.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 24, 2011 13:59:46 GMT -5
But, so what if there were fewer jobs that paid a living wage. Wouldn't society/culture change to accomodate it? Maybe go back to the "one breadwinner one stay at home parent" paradigm? I have a very silly fantasy about my Stay At Home Husband and the 2 kids we have (probably his from a previous marriage cause I ain't popping out a kid!!). He keeps the house and kids and persues whatever hobby or volunteering he wants. There's a hot homecooked meal on the table when I come home from work and he often greets me with a Martini (the way I like it) in hand and a twinkle in his eye when I get home from work. I have no idea what the kids do-- play in the yard I guess... OK, seriously though - what if one person working could support a 'family' or group of people? Assuming the 'family' or group didn't sit around drunk/high watching TV/playing games they'd have time to do other "fulfilling" or self actualizing things - humanity at it's greatest?! Ok, what am I thinking... we're talking humans here... it would be a drunk/high couch sitter society/culture filled with crime and unhappiness.
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telephus44
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Post by telephus44 on Jun 24, 2011 14:02:48 GMT -5
I think we were supposed to take all the productivity we gained from technology and either trade it for a higher standard of living, or more leisure time - we clearly chose a high standard of living, and look where it's gotten us.
As far as mail - they really should cut down to 5 day/week delivery. It's one thing that drives me nuts about this industry. No one can see the writing on the wall. Or maybe no one wants to read it. I keep hearing how much "junk" mail has higher response rates, that because we use recycled paper it's more environmentally friendly, if you put personal information (pay your bills or apply for credit) online then you're just opening up yourself to identity theft, so the mail is safer.... it's really sad. But I struggle between my beliefs and the fact that I like my job.
I totally agree about Best Buy being a floor show for Amazon - after I figure out what electronic device I want, because I want to see it, touch it, push the buttons - I then go home and get a better price online.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2011 14:05:54 GMT -5
If you believe that technology will cause very high unemployment in the future and you look at statistics that show white and Asian males donimate tech positions, the obvious outcome is more stay at home women and more urban decay. As more women leave the workforce, small homes will really take off as familes go down to a single pay check.
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Jun 24, 2011 14:06:59 GMT -5
Get outta my brain! ;D
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Jun 24, 2011 14:09:27 GMT -5
I've read articles hinting that this may be the future - fewer Mom, Dad + 2.5 kid families and more roommate/communal families. One of my close friends lives in Chicago and has had 2 male roommates for as long as I can remember. She likes the company and likes getting to split the rent, even though she earns enough to afford her own apartment. If there are fewer jobs, these situations might become the norm.
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Jun 24, 2011 14:34:58 GMT -5
"OK, seriously though - what if one person working could support a 'family' or group of people? Assuming the 'family' or group didn't sit around drunk/high watching TV/playing games they'd have time to do other "fulfilling" or self actualizing things - humanity at it's greatest?! Ok, what am I thinking... we're talking humans here... it would be a drunk/high couch sitter society/culture filled with crime and unhappiness."
I don't see it happening. Why would a hard working adult take in unemployed "roomates" and support them? Having your spouse stay at home is controversial enough, I can't see it happening for non family members. What does the worker gain?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2011 14:51:47 GMT -5
What if technology completely changed the world. What if power was clean and limitless. What if desalination was cheap because of this clean, limitless power we'd have.. What could we do with that?
How about turning the entire western US green by pumping water to the desert? The government can then give away federal land and people can form small farms to live.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 24, 2011 14:53:11 GMT -5
I don't see it happening. Why would a hard working adult take in unemployed "roomates" and support them? Having your spouse stay at home is controversial enough, I can't see it happening for non family members. What does the worker gain?
I don't know... Child care maybe? Clean house? Dinner Preparation? A ride to and from work? a garden that produces food? This future would require the "unemployed" stay at homes to be doing something useful and unpaid either for the 'group' or for 'society' at least part of the time... You know like women and children already do in less developed parts of the world. ADDED: in the Idealistic future the Stay At Homes would have access to education, could pursue interest, and not have to worry about their well being (violence/rape/abduction/slavery) so it wouldn't be totally be 3rd world... I'd gladly take the drop in my standard of living to have my Fantasy House Husband and Kids that 4 people (and 2 cats) living on my wages would require. It would be a valuable tradeoff to me... I'd have more time for non-work/non-life maintenance stuff...
I guess it would require more of the population to be Idealistic.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 24, 2011 14:54:28 GMT -5
How about turning the entire western US green by pumping water to the desert? The government can then give away federal land and people can form small farms to live. But I don't want to live on a Farm (even with my Fantasy Family!) I like City Life.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 24, 2011 15:01:20 GMT -5
Well - yes and no. I don't have time to google stats right now, but I'm guessing that there were a whole bunch of people who were more factory worker types in mid-century. I wouldn't be surprised if that same "type" of person now goes to a tech school, or a community college of some sort - if not full fledged college. I think a lot of programmers I've met would have been line workers in whatever factory if they were born 50 years earlier - or something to that effect. So, I could see how over a generation a group of people that would normally get a job as a customer service person of some sort or another might look for the next step to get them the new equivilent of that.
There will always be the lowest level, who will always struggle. They really didn't have it that much easier 20 or 40 or 60 or 100 years ago. We try not to focus on people who will do the bare minimum in any and every circumstance - as we can't really structure our economy to help them.
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Poppet
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Post by Poppet on Jun 24, 2011 15:05:31 GMT -5
I have a very silly fantasy about my Stay At Home Husband and the 2 kids we have (probably his from a previous marriage cause I ain't popping out a kid!!). He keeps the house and kids and persues whatever hobby or volunteering he wants. There's a hot homecooked meal on the table when I come home from work and he often greets me with a Martini (the way I like it) in hand and a twinkle in his eye when I get home from workNot silly at all. I am living your fantasy. Except he works and our kids are grown.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 24, 2011 15:05:47 GMT -5
ATS - I find it funny that you don't understand why everyone isn't jumping on the bandwagon for having one income, but in your scenario, you aren't the one giving up your income, your job, or your security. You get a career and your mythical husband is the one that has to be idealistic enough to trust that you would never, ever let him fall.
I work because I want to work. My husband works because he wants to work. We could easily live off either one of our incomes. Our ideal is that we both get the satisfaction and security of our careers, and we get to be together. I don't want to garden or cook dinner or do childcare for a living, and neither do a lot of other people. I want to go to an office and analyze businesses. My husband doesn't want to garden or cook dinner or do childcare for a living. He wants to go to an office and practice law. I guess in your world we aren't allowed to love each other, and will be required to marry others who don't care much for those things.
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Jun 24, 2011 15:06:36 GMT -5
Thyme, where did you get that? That's not how I read her post at all.
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Jun 24, 2011 15:28:07 GMT -5
Living in a "community" where I was a "stay at home" and take care of a bunch of little drooling babies sounds to me like the seventh circle of hell.
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